Jin : Commodity Discussion

#2
Jin,

Am new to the commodities trading and trying my hand at it after few years of stock market trading.
My close friend advised me against it as he considers it as a SATTA market ( purely speculative market where operators are at play)

Is the perception correct... pls provide me with some inputs about what are the best ways to trade and learn too about commodity trading...

Am more interested in GOLD , SILVER , CRUDE OIL and STEEL if possible.

I have registered with Geojit for the same..
 
#4
Hey Thunder,
Welcome to Thread ! Well, your friend was correct ! you told that you were doin in Stocks, Nice to hear that.. Commodities are very easier and very simple to trade. you mentioned that you were intereted to invest on Bullion and Crude Oil. I dont know much about Steel. Actually Iam tradin in MCX, in MCX, steel doesnt have that much volume. For Bullion and Crude Oil, I can share with you what I know.

Accordin to me on Gold, Gold made an Historical High of 544 US$, in MCX 8134. The up trend rally started at 6800 Levels and went upto 8100 levels on 12th Dec'2005. The prices were pushed up even though it was highly overbought condition. Due to aggressive hike on prices lead to a consolidation. It started fallin on the same day. On the next day,13th Dec, FOMC Hiked their Interest rate of 0.25 %(Previous-4.00%, now-4.25%), that lead to fall in price of 7 US$. Thus consolidation started.
8130 - 600 = 1330 Rs. Major retracement level was 7250-7300 levels. but it almost touched it, it came down to 7345(496US$) on 16th Dec'2005, Within a week.. So, there will be another retracement for retracement is seen. Thats happenin now. Market seems to be rangebound till this weekend. On today, 8-Day EMA was 7572 and 21-Day EMA was 7540, Still the price is below these levels, so it is considered as bearish. these are short term resistances. Now RSI was Neutral and MACD was Bullish today, lets omit RSI and MACD for now. The real trend only can be known after this week. But everyday the prices are closing below its opening prices, so still on slightly bearish trend. other than India, there are three major countries involved in Gold, Japan, UK and USA.. on Januray 31st 2006 FOMC planning to Hike the Interest once again by 0.25 %. That will make the gold fall once again. In Dollor 490 is the major support level. Gold has to break the level for a fall. Initial Support is at 7300 levels, break below could see prices testing 6900 levels. If markets goes up, then Go Short at 7610-25 and Stop-Loss at 7645. I prefer always to stay short. Involvement of three nations seems to be confusing little bit in the market. Untill trend is clearly seen, I prefer to stay away from the market.

For silver, now silver follows the gold, it seems little bit aggressive in its move than Gold.
For silver I prefer to Go short at 13000 Levels on MCX rate.

This is my view. Comments are Solicited !

You can refer some websites that provides some informations and historical databases on various commodities....
www.thebulliondesk.com ( there try for Scotia Macotta)
www.indiabullion.com
www.kitco.com
www.commoditycontrol.com
www.agriwatch.com
www.ncdex.com
www.mcxindia.com
these are some reference sites... probably u would have know them already..

Tell me, If you know anythin on Bullion and Energy. Lets share our views.
Ask me any questions if u have...

Happy Trading !

With Regards,
--- Jin ---
 
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#5
Kiran Kabtta said:
Hello Jin,

What would you like to share about commodity trading fundas..

I wud be interested.

Commodity trading, hedging.. or arbitrage..

Agro commodities or Crude & Bullion ?

Regards,

Kiran

Hello Kiran,
Welcome to Thread ! Anythin you wish to give and wish to take from here. Any commodity ! Postings are welcome on All Commodities ! Thanx for your interests and Joinin this thread !

With Regards,
--- Jin ---
 
#6
Hello Everyone...
I apologize for not postin for a long time.
Gold and Silver Futures seems to move up.. But it has to come down once again. In dollar wise gold and silver settin new records everyday ( Previous High is 544 $ ).. It seems to go up further 565-570 $. From there we can expect a down fall. In MCX still 8134 considered as High, in the meanwhile INR gained good strength, so that Indian Market price for gold and silver was not able to move with the impact of Gold in Dollar. It went up because of US$ weakness and some news ( Chinese Yuan Devaluation ) that Chinese were planned to convert their Investment on Gold rather than US$. This news made Dollor to go down and Gold to go up simultaneously. Same way INR (Rupee) gained strength. when it touched that 8134 on MCX, the INR was around 46.60 levels. Now its fluctuating between 43.90 - 44.25 levels. But still there is no anyother news for this Hike. Beware anytime Bullion market could fall. We can expect start in fall tomorrow (17/01/2006 - Tuesday) or within this weekend. We can expect GOLD INR to move up to 8150 - 8250 levels. There are mere chances. New traders dont rely on my report fully. There are only chances.

Happy Trading !

With Regards,
--- Jin ---
 

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