Is it really worth to buy gold at moment

Dear Investors, Traders or just my fellow friends and colleagues.

I came across one article in one of UAE biggest Newspaper in As I live in Dubai and hence read this newspaper.

I am hearing from everyone who are investors or traders, they say it is only they wish to buy gold. I am surprised, as everyone running towards it and I am sure Gold prices will jump up as more than what is expected in coming 2 years. Gold is precious no doubt but what if next steps everyone will run out of cash and no one is their to buy gold from you ultimately less demand of gold which may reverse gold price.

However I will be glad if you could further advise what you think about it.

Many thanks

Gold expected to hit $1,000 within three months
Published: February 06, 2009, 23:13

London: Gold prices are set to jump towards $1,000 (Dh3,670) an ounce and probably beyond to new records as droves of investors fearing financial instability and surging inflation pile into the precious metal.

Expectations of a weaker dollar, which makes gold priced in the US currency cheaper for holders of other currencies, will also help boost prices of the precious metal seen as a store of value during uncertain times.

Strong investor interest in the precious metal can be seen in the record holdings above 867 tonnes of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust.

"The core problem for investors is financial instability, if you look at the IMF numbers, we are only halfway through the non-performing loan cycle," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at fund manager London & Capital.



The IMF last month declared losses on US loans and securitised assets were likely to reach $2.2 trillion, up from an October estimate of $1.4 trillion.

These losses replicated in other major developed economies have frozen bank lending to corporates and consumers and led to recession in the global economy.

In an attempt to kick-start bank lending and activity, central banks have slashed interest rates. Governments have pumped large amounts of money into the global economy.

"Governments are supplying liquidity into the system and unless they sterilise it [issue bonds] they are laying the foundations for much higher inflation for years to come ... These are the things gold thrives on," Shah said.

"More corporate, financial and economic bad news will do the trick. Once it gets a foothold and picks up momentum, gold can easily break through to new highs."

Spot gold hit a record high of $1,030.8 an ounce in March 2008 and is now at around $910, a gain of more than 10 per cent since the middle of January.

Potential inflationary pressures can be seen in the growth of money supply. January M1 rose about 20 per cent year-on-year in the United States where a stimulus plan of about $800 billion is in the works.

"M0 is growing at about 9 per cent worldwide," said Angus Murray, founder of fund manager Castlestone Management.

"People need a real asset to offset inflation. Investors are putting gold into their portfolios as an insurance policy. In 24 or 36 months time, gold will be higher by a minimum of the growth rate in money supply."

Also on the horizon is a weaker dollar, which in recent weeks has risen against the euro and pound, partly because US investors have been taking their money home, fund managers say.

"When that repatriation reverses the dollar will weaken. Let's call it 14 or 16 per cent - in dollar terms gold will rise by that much again," Murray said. Bank analysts too, for similar reasons have changed their gold price forecasts. But they expect prices to peak this year.

Swiss-based UBS expects gold prices to average $1,000 an ounce this year from a previous forecast of $700 and $900 in 2010 from $700 an ounce.

"Gold has rallied in most major currencies despite a firm US dollar, a sign of strong buying interest in the metal," UBS said in a note this week.

Gold priced in euros hit a record of above 726.89 an ounce last week and in sterling it touched a record above 660 last month.

US bank Goldman Sachs followed with a forecast of $1,000 an ounce in the next three months from $700 previously. "If financial risks ... remain high, gold prices could remain higher for longer, presenting upside risk to our forecasts," Goldman said.

"The recent strong demand for gold has not been irrational but rather pretty much in line with the probabilities of financial and sovereign default."
initialy i thought it to be the top but the corrective pattern of price channel makes me to believe that there is still some upside potential in the gold may be around 976-984 area is the key reversal area for a sharp decline in gold


Active Member
In my opinion there wont be any sharp decline in gold any time soon.In times of recession, the most likely scenario for the gold is it goes down a lot,especially if it is trading at historical highs. but this time was different. even though gold lost ground as the crisis unfolded, it has been able to recoup most of the losses so far.

Another thing to remember is, it is not only the gold but also other commodities playing the is also a safe heaven instrument. that status is the main driver of current demand.I think the first reaction to the economic stimulus plan by the congress will be a sell off in the gold. however since all these money supplies are going to end up in higher inflation in the coming years,the long term uptrend in the gold will be intact. after all gold anticipates inflation. so it is better to wait for a pull back before entering fresh longs. I see support around $850-$875.

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Gold is the most precious asset for every person. Prices of gold are falling rapidly. So, i think its the best time to invest in gold. Gold can be utilized in the monetary crunches in terms of Gold Loan. One can acquire cash against gold within 5 minutes at lowest Gold Loan Interest Rate.


Well-Known Member
I think buying physical gold just as storage of wealth, it doesn't provide any value addition, its just sitting Asset class. If you see the Top-Down scenario gold is falling from its peak, a peak which is created since years. And being a commodity its natural that people get hyped to invest. Even if you invest it at current price, there is a downside risk of currency which may come down in future to 45-48 level and we can see it anywhere between 15000-20000. My say is just that its an international commodity where lot of money is at stake you never know when your favorite and time and tested pick can go wrong . Don't mimic central banks as they have large reserve and they can hold it till eternity.

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