General Trading Chat

[timepass]

The American markets are closed today, for Id-e-Milad, I think. But tomorrow they have Black Friday sale, so maybe all the stocks will be available at 50-89% discount ??

 

[vivektrader]

Bajaj finance breaks into sensex (along with HCL technologies), Wipro and Adani ports out.

Vivek

 

[Pradeep Narayan]

I haven't seen such a chart, can somebody help interpret it, have double checked data, did the price remain locked in upper circuit for all those days?

Vivek

See if this helps

http://schrts.co/oFBmQ4

 

[cloudTrader]

This is great wisdom. Thanks.

So question 1 if I can push you. I know there are hundred kinds of technical patterns which you can trade on. But these spikes and fake outs etc that you mention won't give you any trading predictability but they do exist and they happen a lot more than anything worth trading. Call them randomness, or noise. So has someone thought of a good framework to understand them and work with them - maybe some good book or blog or white paper?

Please let me know if you know. Its a big knowledge gap. Something I know that I don't know.

I expect the answer to this to be
'learning the hard way.' In other words, I have to experience it to understand it because it is your mind that needs modification to be able to handle that shit. But hoping someone will surprise me here!

Market is such a great teacher that when one gets involved whole heartedly in the flow of the market he/she will start feeling that the randomness has disappeared. Breakouts , Fake outs etc. will all start to be explaining themselves with experience. 70% of Breakouts fail as per satistics and if one gets to master this fact while trading then success is not far. What differentiates genuine breakout from a fake one if mastered will take the level of trading to great heights. Oliver Velez has some very nice explanations on this. If you can get hold to some books of Oliver Velez you will find them great in the way he shares his experience of embracing the order flow mechanism. Some of his videos on YouTube can be also helpful in observing his style. Simple are his methods but they are powerful.

Channel Link of Oliver Velez : https://www.youtube.com/user/olvelez007/videos

He has quite a lot of videos and you will have to dig through for finding out the gems

I would also like to draw your attention to works by James Dalton on Market profile. He shows that even more powerful than price is Value. Market will move to the fair value and how it could be ascertained is through understanding the order flow.

Channel Link of James Dalton : https://www.youtube.com/user/jdaltontrading/videos

Some very useful Videos in there.

 

[TracerBullet]

Adam H Grimes has tons of useful stuff freely available. His blog and 1st book are really great, there is a free course, lots of free videos among other things. Even if you decide to try other things first, keep in touch with the blog.
In the end though you will probably have to assemble a plan yourself adapting the concepts. Running simple backtests using basic ideas without optimizing and curve fitting is probably required to understand/believe how the market works - Even if you trade with discretion.
It will probably take a long time before you have an edge, so trade small and have realistic expectations .. Markets are mostly random and we dont deal with it nicely. Good luck

 

[cloudTrader]

Adam H Grimes has tons of useful stuff freely available. His blog and 1st book are really great, there is a free course, lots of free videos among other things. Even if you decide to try other things first, keep in touch with the blog.
In the end though you will probably have to assemble a plan yourself adapting the concepts. Running simple backtests using basic ideas without optimizing and curve fitting is probably required to understand/believe how the market works - Even if you trade with discretion.
It will probably take a long time before you have an edge, so trade small and have realistic expectations .. Markets are mostly random and we dont deal with it nicely. Good luck

I agree to the core. I forgot to mention about Adam Grimes and indeed his work is also of great help to get a meaningful cold start with his work.

 

[nikhil_chinapa2]

Market is such a great teacher that when one gets involved whole heartedly in the flow of the market he/she will start feeling that the randomness has disappeared. Breakouts , Fake outs etc. will all start to be explaining themselves with experience. 70% of Breakouts fail as per satistics and if one gets to master this fact while trading then success is not far. What differentiates genuine breakout from a fake one if mastered will take the level of trading to great heights. Oliver Velez has some very nice explanations on this. If you can get hold to some books of Oliver Velez you will find them great in the way he shares his experience of embracing the order flow mechanism. Some of his videos on YouTube can be also helpful in observing his style. Simple are his methods but they are powerful.

Channel Link of Oliver Velez : https://www.youtube.com/user/olvelez007/videos

He has quite a lot of videos and you will have to dig through for finding out the gems

I would also like to draw your attention to works by James Dalton on Market profile. He shows that even more powerful than price is Value. Market will move to the fair value and how it could be ascertained is through understanding the order flow.

Channel Link of James Dalton : https://www.youtube.com/user/jdaltontrading/videos

Some very useful Videos in there.

Thats , BIG once eating Small. Adhere to one which never showed such irregularities, key lesson to sustain the market.

 

[AD_Trader]

Hello traders. Need guidance for yours faithful newbie.

After losing enough money today being whipped around by BNF, I think I am ready to ask - is there an authoritative system to trade/ scalp the BNF futures. I know of many ppl who do it successfully but I couldn't figure out how the tend to have a move than 50% success ratio.

Note that I don't want to predict the market, but I just want to know when a particular move will hold or reverse and so on and how to identify that on a chart.

If this is relevant, I prefer to trade with a max loss of Rs 500 to 1000 per trade and so should look for a minimum of 50 to hundred points when on right bet. Which will work out fine if I have more than half winning bets. I look at price action and go with pivot breaks or reversals on intraday time frame of 5 mins. I try to enter a trade only if I see visually that a move is looking sustainable on a 5 min time frame.

Appreciate any responses which will push me in the right path..

Ps: BNF is not the only thing I trade. As a newbie, I realise that I should experiment with many ways to trade so that I will know which suits my mentality. So still very much in trial and error phase despite losing around 20k. Not to worry, I have read enough of traderji and I have high ambitions. I have a vow not to lose more than a % on any single bet so that I survive the learning curve.

Dear Raj,

There are majorly 2 types of traders:

Anticipatory - You analyse that a move is gonna happen so you take a position.

Reactionary - You wait for the market to make a move and you take the position as per your confirmation.
Try to figure out which technique suits you better. It can be a mix of both as well.

From my learning and experience, never ever run for success ratio, always go for high Reward/Risk trades. One can never predict a random event, its all probability game. Hit ratio can even be as low as 35%-40%, even then profits can be huge. It all boils down to R&R.
Many a times there are no trades because they don't fit our risk taking appetite. But, as said by ST Da somewhere, no trade is also a good trade.

Try to stick with few stocks/indices which you can monitor easily. Train your eyes on charts so well that Buy/Sell pops up just watching the charts.
There can be 4 outcomes of any trading system:
Big Profits
Small Profits
Big Losses
Small Losses

Small Losses and Profits cancel out each other. If one is able to remove Big Losses by following strict Risk-Reward, then in long term- You Win

Enough preaching, these are my 2 cents

 

[raj1688]

Dear Raj,

There are majorly 2 types of traders:

Anticipatory - You analyse that a move is gonna happen so you take a position.

Reactionary - You wait for the market to make a move and you take the position as per your confirmation.
Try to figure out which technique suits you better. It can be a mix of both as well.

From my learning and experience, never ever run for success ratio, always go for high Reward/Risk trades. One can never predict a random event, its all probability game. Hit ratio can even be as low as 35%-40%, even then profits can be huge. It all boils down to R&R.
Many a times there are no trades because they don't fit our risk taking appetite. But, as said by ST Da somewhere, no trade is also a good trade.

Try to stick with few stocks/indices which you can monitor easily. Train your eyes on charts so well that Buy/Sell pops up just watching the charts.
There can be 4 outcomes of any trading system:
Big Profits
Small Profits
Big Losses
Small Losses

Small Losses and Profits cancel out each other. If one is able to remove Big Losses by following strict Risk-Reward, then in long term- You Win

Enough preaching, these are my 2 cents

Wow.. You guys are really awesome. I wish I came here a lot sooner.

Super ideas and guidance for me to get started on. Not just this but also by cloudtrader, nikhil chinapa (is that your real name?), tracerbullet, timepass (really!) and others. Thanks for being kind enough to bear with me.

And ya, keep preaching if its fun for you. I can do with a bit more of listening as well. Thanks.

 

[iwillwin]

Wow.. You guys are really awesome. I wish I came here a lot sooner.

Super ideas and guidance for me to get started on. Not just this but also by cloudtrader, nikhil chinapa (is that your real name?), tracerbullet, timepass (really!) and others. Thanks for being kind enough to bear with me.

And ya, keep preaching if its fun for you. I can do with a bit more of listening as well. Thanks.

Preaching won't work unless u practice and tell it to yourself that you have to unlearn a lot of things...
Often our education, strength and confidence on our tested abilities which have given results elsewhere come in way of trading....
One tries to identify rationality from market which infact by nature is irrational/random and has got innumerable outcome with different probability