Food for Thought........!

[S S]

Hi!

Yesterday, it was a treat to watch the US markets as they opened.

Within seconds DJ zoomed down below 7900, and if someone had gaped, then before he could close his mouth, that the DJ climbed back to 8600.

Then thereafter, the trading was range bound till the close, which was marginally in the red, and Nasdaq actually closing in the Green.

A Hope of turnaround was being aired by many charlies appearing on different TV channels.

In my opinion, we have nothing to worry about in real terms, because, Nifty came below 3300 and the buying should have commenced. So far it has NOT closed below the magic figure of 3235, that I had been referring to all along, starting from the FIRST mesage in this THREAD.

There is a strong probability of the world markets staging a come back starting Monday, but one cannot be sure.

And if that happens, the close below 3235 may get deferred forever

This is in my opinion, and I could be wrong.
If this happens, Thanks to Maths and Charts!
Cheers!
SS

 

[Czar]

Missing in Action , FIR Filed...

 

[S S]

Missing in Action , FIR Filed...

I do NOT believe for writing without any 'Masala Food' for thinking

And I spent some time in getting my Laptop back, and then returning to Bangalore, .... only to face a new problem.

AC adapter of the laptop stopped working and so did the Broadband in the house.

Got both set ok and logged in to find your FIR.

Let me first get my data... then my thinking starts [...?]

Markets are behaving like good boys. I am thankful.

Incidently, do YOU follow the Elliot wave analysis...?

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

Yesterday, the daily candle came above the lower Bollinger Band [Indigo coloured], but yet was below that of the lower Keltners [Golden yellow]. Todays candle was now above the both lower bands.

The 10 days EMA Red line almost acted like a strong resistance today, and pushed the market below. Now the first job that the Nifty has to carry out, is to move more nearer to the 10 days EMA line, and eventuality cross and go above it. This shall NOT be in a straight line move, nor it is immediate. One cannot be sure. It may or may NOT.

More importantly, the Nifty is likely to try to remain within the channel, but depending upon the world market behaviour, it may move up with a strong thrust, to cross and go above this channel. The 10 days EMA shall also be moving up likewise.

That is when both the Bollinger Band and Keltner Band shall start contracting, and consolidation shall take place.

Personally, I am expecting all the balance days of this week also to remain totally in Green.. my opinion and I could be wrong

Cheers!
SS

 

[uasish]

Hi!

Yesterday, the daily candle came above the lower Bollinger Band [Indigo coloured], but yet was below that of the lower Keltners [Golden yellow]. Todays candle was now above the both lower bands.

The 10 days EMA Red line almost acted like a strong resistance today, and pushed the market below. Now the first job that the Nifty has to carry out, is to move more nearer to the 10 days EMA line, and eventuality cross and go above it. This shall NOT be in a straight line move, nor it is immediate. One cannot be sure. It may or may NOT.

More importantly, the Nifty is likely to try to remain within the channel, but depending upon the world market behaviour, it may move up with a strong thrust, to cross and go above this channel. The 10 days EMA shall also be moving up likewise.

That is when both the Bollinger Band and Keltner Band shall start contracting, and consolidation shall take place.

Personally, I am expecting all the balance days of this week also to remain totally in Green.. my opinion and I could be wrong

Cheers!
SS

This contraction is the essence for the next vital move's direction,as i understand from your chart,how i missed the 10 DEMA ,thks.

 

[Czar]

Got both set ok and logged in to find your FIR.

Incidently, do YOU follow the Elliot wave analysis...?

Cheers!
SS

FIR rejected since the cops said SS is moving like elliot waves from city to city impossible to catch they transfered it to elliotician dept.

Me Elliot ??? remove the 2 LL's & add a D in elliot as apt for me in the dept.

Though we were looking to hire for an elliot person in my thread but guess you are very expensive

 

[S S]

A Balling change....? Did I overlook something?

But to err is human, and once again I proved that I am a mortal human, working out the probabilities, that go wrong sometimes

Considering today's chart, now it gives an impression that market could remain .... a kind of sideways. The movement away from the 10 days EMA has taken place in last two day. Some action needed to overcome it would be necessary.

I do NOT think that any action by SEBI-RBI-FM shall have any effect on the markets. Markets shall behave the way they wish to. We always try to find reasons, based on what has already happened.

For eg the stock like L&T. In my opinion, today it has exactly behaved in line with the rest of the markets, but the TV channels kept assigning the reasons. I beg to differ.

Contrary to my initial belief, the Nifty may try for a double bottom by once again heading for 3200-3235 region or there abouts. But I still feel that Diwali is going to be great.

Someone has to act, and in small lots, I have started buying in cash market in a systematic way. To give an example, if I buy one share, say... then at the stoploss value I buy two. If it goes further down, then at stoploss for this new purchase, I buy 4. The market shall have to rebound someday in this month [Now that I am a buyer, one could look at this statement as a wishful thinking. One's own choice... could be different from my view point]

And do NOT think I am rediculous person to start buying with a single share... it is only an example. Someone could ask..."What if Nifty goes to 1000...? I ignore such baseless questions. Why would Nifty go to 1000 or 2000 or...?

That as an investor. The month of Oct 2008 is going to be a very different one, than many earlier months.

The Bear market has converted many investors to traders, and some to compulsive traders. I am no exception. But like Gavaskar and Dravid, I allow to pass some balls without making an attempt to play. Afterall, I wish to stay at the crease forever, and that too without getting out (and NOT as a runner)

Hope that every readers of tihs message does too.

Cheers!
SS

 

[columbus]

DMA-25 is falling atleast 3 times DMA-50 when both compared to DMA-100. That is the SEVERITY of the latest fall.

 

[S S]

I agree. Evidently, the 10 DMA has beaten them all.

But as the spot value being below all the MAs, I have currently concentrated on 10 DMA, because that is the one which shall get surpassed by the Spot Nifty, whenever it happens.

Thereafter, we could come to 25, 50, 100.....suitably
Cheers!

 

[columbus]

I agree. Evidently, the 10 DMA has beaten them all.

But as the spot value being below all the MAs, I have currently concentrated on 10 DMA, because that is the one which shall get surpassed by the Spot Nifty, whenever it happens.

Thereafter, we could come to 25, 50, 100.....suitably
Cheers!

Really ,pathetic to see NIFTY moving Support-less despite RBI giving so much of support.

Or else NSE should press Adan Sami into action .(...lift karade fame..)