FII/FPI Analysis

#11
Originally posted here:
http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...68-general-trading-chat-5005.html#post1198495
http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...68-general-trading-chat-5005.html#post1198497

This is post of yours about market going higher.
There are two types of Markets:
1. DM: Debt Market
2. EM: Equity Market

In each of 1 & 2,
there is
A. Primary Market
B. Secondary MArket

The Market that people generally refer to is 1B, ie. Secondary Equity Market

Only 1B contributes to Nifty and other Indices.
In fact the volume in Crores of DM is generally far more than EM.


Debt Market is mostly Govt Securities etc and not Stocks/Derivatives of you see.

NSDL doesn't disclose such data of DII everyday, maybe deferred data comes by months etc so you'll never know what DII did in detail like FPI.

On 11th January 2017, when you posted that data:
Look at the image below and you will understand actually how

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that the flat figures you post are not reflected on the Indices the way you are projecting.



source: https://www.fpi.nsdl.co.in/web/Reports/Monthly.aspx
nsdl collates all data at EoD.

There are huge possibilities on many days where FII can sell 1000 Cr in DM and invest 600Cr in sec. EM with Nifty jumping 150 pts
and your post will say FII were -400 Cr NET Sellers.
Travi,

Great Work...:thumb:

Thanks for the effort and time.:clapping:

Not active due to personal reasons. Your analysis is a must learn in my To-Do List. I will spend more time once i have my personal stuff started.

Keep up the good work man..:clap:
 
#13
hi ravi,

subscribed.

in short, the takeaway for us retail traders is if you are losing continuously in equity market, one could try debt market for consistency.
Like your signature:

"Where will be your bet? On time which is decaying for sure or volatility which is like weather (forecasting)!"

:thumb:

What's your approach on options trading? Focus is on shorting?
 

pannet1

Well-Known Member
#14
What do we want ? Very simple.

When market goes south or north, we want to make money. If we are king in directional bets we would rather trade other instruments. So its obvious that we need neutral strategy only.

After many experiments, I have now come to the point where I short weekly Bank Nifty and go Long on Monthly.

Keep taking profits on a regular basis on both the sides whenever opportunity comes. This way one may not make much profit because it will not be much different from the losing side. Here is what it gets interesting. We make our directional bets intraday. This is where we make our additional chunks of profits. What happens if your directional bet goes wrong. We still take profit from one leg on top of which we made the actual bet.

If done correctly, we should have a small loss on the weekly expiry day but our loses are much smaller than ... the small small profits we withdrew throughout the week.

hope i have explained well. I will try to post this month trades in my diary.
 

travi

Well-Known Member
#15
Like your signature:
"Where will be your bet? On time which is decaying for sure or volatility which is like weather (forecasting)!"
:thumb:
What's your approach on options trading? Focus is on shorting?
A lot of discussion has happened on Options selling and there is a consensus that ultimately it requires high capital.
Therefore, I mostly stick with futures and use Options on debit spreads or buying side when there is anticipated flip of volatility from low to high.

I can't count how many times I've reiterated but Option writing should be done as early as possible and that's the key to it.
In short, when Vola will flip from low to high, bet on time.
 

pannet1

Well-Known Member
#16
A lot of discussion has happened on Options selling and there is a consensus that ultimately it requires high capital.
Therefore, I mostly stick with futures and use Options on debit spreads or buying side when there is anticipated flip of volatility from low to high.
I thought futures and options selling require same margin. I really do not know to anticipate. I wonder how others do
I can't count how many times I've reiterated but Option writing should be done as early as possible and that's the key to it.
In short, when Vola will flip from low to high, bet on time.
I agree but in the current system I am following, buying and selling has to be done anytime because overnight positions are always hedged. on the contrary directional bets profit are never left on the table for overnight.

I operate with a very low capital you would not believe if i tell. its just 70K. For intraday bets I sometimes sell additional options as MIS. At the end of the day I convert the lone remaining sold option to NRML.
 

travi

Well-Known Member
#18
I thought futures and options selling require same margin. I really do not know to anticipate. I wonder how others do

I agree but in the current system I am following, buying and selling has to be done anytime because overnight positions are always hedged. on the contrary directional bets profit are never left on the table for overnight.

I operate with a very low capital you would not believe if i tell. its just 70K. For intraday bets I sometimes sell additional options as MIS. At the end of the day I convert the lone remaining sold option to NRML.
Buy/Sell of Future requires same margin, maybe different for MIS/NRML.

Buy/Sell of Options has different margin, maybe different for MIS/NRML.
That's what I meant.
Selling options have Limited profit, Unlimited Loss and Buying has vice-versa result.
Regarding early, this is what I mean.
http://www.traderji.com/options/103300-premium-decay-nifty.html#post1184228
 

travi

Well-Known Member
#19
Trading Date: 27-Jan-2017

FII Stock Exchange EM: 1280.83
FII Stock Exchange DM: (609.53)

For the second day in a row, FII's are buying the EM which contributes to the current uptrend.
In fact, this todays NET is twice the previous high of any +/- INR value recorded in the entire month.

Values in Cr.
 

pannet1

Well-Known Member
#20
Trading Date: 27-Jan-2017

FII Stock Exchange EM: 1280.83
FII Stock Exchange DM: (609.53)

For the second day in a row, FII's are buying the EM which contributes to the current uptrend.
In fact, this todays NET is twice the previous high of any +/- INR value recorded in the entire month.

Values in Cr.
I think this is the build up for the budget.
 

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