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| Discuss Nifty analysis as on 17 July 06 at the Futures within the Traderji.com - Discussion forum for Stocks Commodities & Forex; Disclaimer: These are my personal thoughts and not trading advise. How the technical position changes ... |
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#1
18th July 2006, 09:03 AM
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Nifty analysis as on 17 July 06
Disclaimer: These are my personal thoughts and not trading advise.
How the technical position changes within a span of two trading days. The Nifty opened with a downside gap, and continued down. We have readjusted the blue up sloping trendline to accommodate the minor incursions of the rising trend. This trendline, which has been providing strong support all along this rise, has been broken decisively today. A “loose” head and shoulder pattern has also taken effect on the hourly chart. The shoulders are marked “S” and the head “H”. Now that the short term trend is down, any rises will be accompanied by heavy selling. Which will in turn depress the sentiment even more. Unfortunately, for the index, it will now take huge buying to reverse its trend. Now let us look at the positive side. Normally, we see that a sharp rise or drop like this is followed by profit booking covering, which allows the minor trend to reverse. In this case, we could see short covering. Further, the loose H&S pattern has almost completed its 100 point amplitude target. We could therefore, see a minor upward reversal, which could allow the Nifty to test 3040 to 3065. From there, we could see further selling pressure which could push it down to approximately the 2930 levels. We could possibly see the index heavyweights bottoming around those levels, which could allow the Nifty to begin a fresh up move. A couple of days back I had uploaded a projections chart. The reader would notice that the projections were drawn up with the 3057 level as a base and 3147 as the minor pivot. Both these levels have been violated. Therefore, the earlier projections based on this chart, have been negated, and are discarded. As of now, sell on rises could be the prudent thing to do. 
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#3
18th July 2006, 09:17 AM
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Re: Nifty analysis as on 17 July 06
Quote:
Interesting.... I had the impression H&S patterns typically take months to develop ... Not sure of the reliability of your 'express' H&S AGILENT
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#4
18th July 2006, 03:44 PM
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Re: Nifty analysis as on 17 July 06
Hello Agilent,
Any technical pattern developing on any time frame has relevance pertaining only to that time frame. A head and shoulder can develop even on a tick chart, and should be treated exactly for that time frame. The psychology for the pattern remains the same. After all, you would notice that the break down from the neckline has allowed the price to achieve its projected target. Best wishes. Dusant
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#5
18th July 2006, 10:12 PM
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Re: Nifty analysis as on 17 July 06
Quote:
Again ... interesting contention...... and with respect If you can corroborate from some published work, it would help us all. AGILENT
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#7
18th July 2006, 11:02 PM
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Re: Nifty analysis as on 17 July 06
Agilent,
With great humility, I will most certainly upload some charts which could allow us to judge how this "method" stands the test of inspection. However, I cannot refer to some published works or authority, which could back up my "loose" H&S. Dusant
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#10
18th July 2006, 11:37 PM
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Re: Nifty analysis as on 17 July 06
The website of NSE has everything you want.
http://www.nseindia.com If you want everything delivered to your PC, then a professional data vendor would be the ideal choice. Dusant
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