Trading NF with ACD system

Here is todays ACD
[personally avoided to trade due to wide OR+A value+validation]

Hi Dumdum,

I went through your trading plan, it looks good.
However, I am a bit dubious to use it..becoz of the risk:reward ratio. It seems almost 1:1.
Since, you have been using it, how much do you think, would be the success rate?
Regards
Yogesh

Dear Dumdum,

I am also having the same opinion about the risk reward. Pl enlighten me.

Regards

Hi,
What im going to express about your query, may not come up to your expactations but let me explain a little.

It seems and true that risk reward ratio around 1:1, but ACD entries make the trade statistically signifiacnt and lean the winning probability in favour ( what i think from fishers book). So no matter risk-reward ratio is not inpressive but chances of trades going in profit are much higher. ( thats one of the fact for the testing of this truth via this thread on NF, me too want to see whether probabilties favours ?)

Beside that "A value" and "Daily ATR" has direct impact on the risk-reward ratio. Decision of A-value is helpful from 10-min ATR(10 bar ) on NF(see first post).Daily ATR(10) gives idea of range from which a profitable slice can be cut-out. Also a linear regrresion straight line can almost always drawn on ATR graph. Change in slope of ATR graph gives the sense of change in trend/direction. Movements on NF may not follow as strict regression line but ATR regession line is best near to str. line from which prevailing ATR values can be extrapolated.

OMG! i dont want my language to be more mathematical but is it smell some thing strange when ATR(10) making lows n lows- today 89.

Hi Dumdum,

Thanks for explaining your perspective.

However, as per my understanding, ATR only tells you wat market is donig.
If you look at the graph, that you have posted in your last post, whenever market is in a trend, ATR increases continuously. Later, when ATR starts decreasing signifies start of a rangebound market.

Consequently, Breakout in any direction, would be again followed by an increase in ATR.

ATR can give a short view though, I m not sure whether it should be used in taking confirmation (A-C) for a trade.

Personally, I dont use average based indicators for day trading, as they have inbuilt lag, and are pron to whipsaws.

Anyways, I liked your different approach.

Regards
Yogesh Tiwari

Todays ACD,
Successfull A and Failed C ( possible rubber band trade)

hi,

posting from mobile. out of city.
can not trade/post ACD chart live.
will post 3 days chart ( today, 2maro and fri.) on sat. from 1-min IEOD data.

Hi,
ACD setup of 11,12 and 13 Feb

Hi,
here is todays ACD

Todays ACD,