Volume Profile and Market Profile a new wave of market picture

[manish9300]

Close below VA meant price acceptance.Bias changed to down.Resistance at Val confirmed the bias.Initiative trade should be taken outside VA.In price action terms it was
Breakout from sideways(VA/balance area represent sideways ).Entry is on the break of breakout bar.

 

[Vipul_84]

Market profiles well but over expectations will not. I think with basic set ups such as 80%, auction failure, OD, ORR that Xray bhai taught us here, we can easily make GOOD points per month. That's the double of what I expected in my early expectations. I was happy with MIDERATE NF points as well.With 1 or 2 trades a day, what else we want. I am also happy that thread is developing very well and we all are learning. Special thanks to XRAY bro for all the hard work and now we have Manish, NAC, wisp, Sherbaaz, pakatil and many others here
Manish count me INN for any back testing. We can develope basic 4-5 set ups and work on it.

 

[manish9300]

Market profiles well but over expectations will not. I think with basic set ups such as 80%, auction failure, OD, ORR that Xray bhai taught us here, we can easily make GOOD points per month. That's the double of what I expected in my early expectations. I was happy with MIDERATE NF points as well.With 1 or 2 trades a day, what else we want. I am also happy that thread is developing very well and we all are learning. Special thanks to XRAY bro for all the hard work and now we have Manish, NAC, wisp, Sherbaaz, pakatil and many others here
Manish count me INN for any back testing. We can develope basic 4-5 set ups and work on it.

Thanks.I use excel to backtest.I would like to check open stats,IB to days range stats,probabilty of 80% rule,probability of revisting failed auction/poor high low etc.For now i am struggling to export val vah data to csv.Creating Val Vah levels in excel or manual data posting is the next option if coding for exporting data fails.
Please do share your backtest results here. Different people producing similar backtest results will be great.

 

[manish9300]

Today open =high,which is almost equal to my understanding of" excess "first 30 mins candle closed below VAL ,so short at 8935 exited @ 8913...now SOH

Nice example of excess trade.
Excess=Spike+Buying/Selling tail=End/Completion of Auction.

 

[manish9300]

Trading Spikes - A spike is a late day price probe either to the upside or downside during pit session hours. It usually occurs in the last hour of the Pit Session. We are forced to await the market’s opening during the pit session of the following day to verify whether it has been accepted or rejected. If the Spike was on low Volume, then odds favor price reverting back to the mean - which would be the Value Area from the day the Spike occurred. Spike's are also another form of Excess for e.g. if an upside probe was rejected we would be left with a selling tail.

Upward Spike

A price opening below an upward spike would be considered negative since the price probe or spike was rejected leaving a selling tail.
Opening within a spike shows price acceptance and keeps the rally in tact;
Opening and trading above an upward spike reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) high enough to cut off the buying allowing for two-sided trade. The auction is not over.
The bottom of the spike is “support".

Downward Spike

A price opening and trading above a downward spike would be considered positive since the price probe or spike was rejected leaving a buying tail.
Opening within a spike shows price acceptance and keeps the break intact;
Opening and trading below a downward spike reveals that price has not auctioned (probed) low enough to cut off the selling allowing for two-sided trade. The auction is not over.
The top of the spike is “resistance”.

Source:Atul Malhotra blog

 

[manish9300]

Failed auction level 8796 is not visited for 3rd day today.

Failed auction level 8796 revisited on 5th day.

 

[manish9300]

Seems like a No trade day.IB break late in the session are risky trade.Anyone here taking responsive trades please share your experience?

 

[Vipul_84]

Entire happening between Initial Range as for today

 

[Vipul_84]

Xray bro, what kind of %win we expect for this Auction fail 5 day re-test kind of set up? Can it be as swwet as 80% ??

 

[manish9300]

Backtesting is needed to test this but first one needs to understand the pattern well.Probabilty of any level revisiting in next 5 bar is already at 70% most of the time according to my backtesting.Probabiliy of Gap open above below previous day's range is at 30%.