The Starving Trader!

[kevin_shah]

To all of u guys and of course ST and Munde Sir,

As u can see from the above image the nifty has formed an extended Symmetrical triangle from 4800 in Jun 2010 and from 6300 Nov 2010. Drawing the trend line we may see prices touching both the borders multiple times, and also showing extended areas in between these triangle..
The Red Line above shows all time high resistance of 6300 and the Green line shows next major support of 4800 if nifty breaks 5200...
Th pink Line is drawn from the second touch of the triangle to straight down to opposite side as Textbook example where it is called the measured move...meaning if the price break any of these lines...its going to to halt at measured move i.e after 1400-1500 points.

Symmetrical triangles are Classic Psychological battle between Bulls and Bears indicating continuously narrowing range of buyers and sellers at every point of contact in between the lines....it forms Symmetrical triangle when we connect peak and valleys of the prices
However Professional Traders wait for the Lines to break and wait for close outside the triangle for any kind of Positions...
But one thing the textbooks don't say is the "LOCATION " of the Triangles, As Starving Trader rightly said "Continuation Patterns in extended trends usually don't work as great as much as mid-trend or early-trend."

Since, it is a Extended Symmetrical Triangle formed at Upper resistance zones, even though its Continuation Pattern any upside break outs are rare to be found and are normally failed..
So my view says if we break out of the zone and close below 5200 level, we may see a 1400 move downwards till 3950-4100 level very soon possible in next 3 months AS shown in the image

CAUTION:- These are my views based on my Understanding and experience, positional traders need to recheck and reassess their portfolio through experts..

Kevin Shah

 

[ayush2020]

To all of u guys and of course ST and Munde Sir,

As u can see from the above image the nifty has formed an extended Symmetrical triangle from 4800 in Jun 2010 and from 6300 Nov 2010. Drawing the trend line we may see prices touching both the borders multiple times, and also showing extended areas in between these triangle..
The Red Line above shows all time high resistance of 6300 and the Green line shows next major support of 4800 if nifty breaks 5200...
Th pink Line is drawn from the second touch of the triangle to straight down to opposite side as Textbook example where it is called the measured move...meaning if the price break any of these lines...its going to to halt at measured move i.e after 1400-1500 points.

Symmetrical triangles are Classic Psychological battle between Bulls and Bears indicating continuously narrowing range of buyers and sellers at every point of contact in between the lines....it forms Symmetrical triangle when we connect peak and valleys of the prices
However Professional Traders wait for the Lines to break and wait for close outside the triangle for any kind of Positions...
But one thing the textbooks don't say is the "LOCATION " of the Triangles, As Starving Trader rightly said "Continuation Patterns in extended trends usually don't work as great as much as mid-trend or early-trend."

Since, it is a Extended Symmetrical Triangle formed at Upper resistance zones, even though its Continuation Pattern any upside break outs are rare to be found and are normally failed..
So my view says if we break out of the zone and close below 5200 level, we may see a 1400 move downwards till 3950-4100 level very soon possible in next 3 months AS shown in the image

CAUTION:- These are my views based on my Understanding and experience, positional traders need to recheck and reassess their portfolio through experts..

Kevin Shah

as per my knowledge any kind of triangle pattern it should give break out with in the 60-70% from its base.... so it gives more accuracy result... if it consolidates and moves towards apex then the chances r very less to achieve the target on either side.....

 

[thestarvingtrader]

To all of u guys and of course ST and Munde Sir,

As u can see from the above image the nifty has formed an extended Symmetrical triangle from 4800 in Jun 2010 and from 6300 Nov 2010. Drawing the trend line we may see prices touching both the borders multiple times, and also showing extended areas in between these triangle..
The Red Line above shows all time high resistance of 6300 and the Green line shows next major support of 4800 if nifty breaks 5200...
Th pink Line is drawn from the second touch of the triangle to straight down to opposite side as Textbook example where it is called the measured move...meaning if the price break any of these lines...its going to to halt at measured move i.e after 1400-1500 points.

Symmetrical triangles are Classic Psychological battle between Bulls and Bears indicating continuously narrowing range of buyers and sellers at every point of contact in between the lines....it forms Symmetrical triangle when we connect peak and valleys of the prices
However Professional Traders wait for the Lines to break and wait for close outside the triangle for any kind of Positions...
But one thing the textbooks don't say is the "LOCATION " of the Triangles, As Starving Trader rightly said "Continuation Patterns in extended trends usually don't work as great as much as mid-trend or early-trend."

Since, it is a Extended Symmetrical Triangle formed at Upper resistance zones, even though its Continuation Pattern any upside break outs are rare to be found and are normally failed..
So my view says if we break out of the zone and close below 5200 level, we may see a 1400 move downwards till 3950-4100 level very soon possible in next 3 months AS shown in the image

CAUTION:- These are my views based on my Understanding and experience, positional traders need to recheck and reassess their portfolio through experts..

Kevin Shah

Great stuff Kevin! Thanks for sharing with us all My sentiments exactly.

The Starving trader

 

[ConsultInvestments]

Hello Kevin Shah,

Good TA work..!

Thanks for sharing it with the Traderji members.

 

[thestarvingtrader]

Am wondering abut which stock to trade (swing trade) in addition to the NIFTY, Silver, and for now, TITAN. If you have any recommendations, either post here or vote on the starving trader blog. Stock/Commodity should have decent volume.

 

[thestarvingtrader]

Am wondering abut which stock to trade (swing trade) in addition to the NIFTY, Silver, and for now, TITAN. If you have any recommendations, either post here or vote on the starving trader blog. Stock/Commodity should have decent volume.

Re-posting the link to my spreadsheet that has the latest swing entries that I have planned as part of the "Trade or Bust" project

 

[thestarvingtrader]

An extended analysis of the NIFTY:

(sorry i could not preserve the formatting or the images from the post on the site)


Long Term Overview - Fibonacci Test

NIFTY Monthly Chart as of 19th June 2011: Fibonacci retracements plotted
As expected, the massive monthly resistance above the 6100 area has produced quite the downturn. In order to gauge the strength of the prevailing long term uptrend a Fibonacci analysis has been applied in the chart above. As we can see, the 23.6% bounce has failed to produce a sustainable up move and the odds are that price might now be tested next at the 38.2% level. If price manages to sustain an up move from here then the index could very well resume a healthy uptrend. For now, the monthly chart tells us that we should expect volatile and tight-ranged downward moves for the next 3 months or so.
[Continue to Medium and Short term overview...]


Medium Term Overview - Price Action Read

NIFTY Weekly Chart as of 19th June 2011: Fibonacci retracements plotted; areas of supply and demand shown
The nearest long attempt that The Starving Trader would be interested in is down in the 5065 area. There is a big range of support starting from here right down unto the 38.2% retracement of 4777. Shorting here would probably not get good returns. And this will be an interesting and acid test of the prevailing uptrend.
A decent supply area has now formed above the 5475 zone and so any long attempts right now are not likely to get very far.


Daily Overview - Short Term Supply & Demand

NIFTY Daily Chart as of 19th June 2011: Nearest areas of supply and demand shown
So what should the actions be in the next week or so? Well, let us consider the bullish and bearish factors on this chart...
Bullish:
Tiny pocket of support in the 5230 area
Still hasn't closed below the upward slanting trend line formed since February - although this doesn't seem likely to hold out much longer.
Bearish:
Failed to sustain any moves above the 89 Day SMA (bearish indicator for algorithmic programs)
Supply retest at the previous breakdown low of around 5404, then around 5475, and further at 5690. Any long moves will likely taper off quick.
No significant support zones until 5066 on the weekly and around 4915 on the daily.
Failed to close above the main downtrend since November 2010.
The Fibonacci action from the Weekly and Monthly indicates failed up moves
Clearly, the Bearish factors far outweigh the Bullish. In the next weeks then, any upward moves are likely to taper off and a resumption of the downward trend might be seen, although the range would probably be tight, as indicated by the tightening of the ATR.

*****************************


The Starving Trader

 

[thestarvingtrader]

An extended analysis of the NIFTY:

(sorry i could not preserve the formatting or the images from the post on the site)


Long Term Overview - Fibonacci Test

NIFTY Monthly Chart as of 19th June 2011: Fibonacci retracements plotted
As expected, the massive monthly resistance above the 6100 area has produced quite the downturn. In order to gauge the strength of the prevailing long term uptrend a Fibonacci analysis has been applied in the chart above. As we can see, the 23.6% bounce has failed to produce a sustainable up move and the odds are that price might now be tested next at the 38.2% level. If price manages to sustain an up move from here then the index could very well resume a healthy uptrend. For now, the monthly chart tells us that we should expect volatile and tight-ranged downward moves for the next 3 months or so.
[Continue to Medium and Short term overview...]


Medium Term Overview - Price Action Read

NIFTY Weekly Chart as of 19th June 2011: Fibonacci retracements plotted; areas of supply and demand shown
The nearest long attempt that The Starving Trader would be interested in is down in the 5065 area. There is a big range of support starting from here right down unto the 38.2% retracement of 4777. Shorting here would probably not get good returns. And this will be an interesting and acid test of the prevailing uptrend.
A decent supply area has now formed above the 5475 zone and so any long attempts right now are not likely to get very far.


Daily Overview - Short Term Supply & Demand

NIFTY Daily Chart as of 19th June 2011: Nearest areas of supply and demand shown
So what should the actions be in the next week or so? Well, let us consider the bullish and bearish factors on this chart...
Bullish:
Tiny pocket of support in the 5230 area
Still hasn't closed below the upward slanting trend line formed since February - although this doesn't seem likely to hold out much longer.
Bearish:
Failed to sustain any moves above the 89 Day SMA (bearish indicator for algorithmic programs)
Supply retest at the previous breakdown low of around 5404, then around 5475, and further at 5690. Any long moves will likely taper off quick.
No significant support zones until 5066 on the weekly and around 4915 on the daily.
Failed to close above the main downtrend since November 2010.
The Fibonacci action from the Weekly and Monthly indicates failed up moves
Clearly, the Bearish factors far outweigh the Bullish. In the next weeks then, any upward moves are likely to taper off and a resumption of the downward trend might be seen, although the range would probably be tight, as indicated by the tightening of the ATR.

*****************************


The Starving Trader

Wow - didn't expect the analysis to pay off the very next morning... LOL!

The Starving Trader

 

[ayush2020]

An extended analysis of the NIFTY:

(sorry i could not preserve the formatting or the images from the post on the site)


Long Term Overview - Fibonacci Test

NIFTY Monthly Chart as of 19th June 2011: Fibonacci retracements plotted
As expected, the massive monthly resistance above the 6100 area has produced quite the downturn. In order to gauge the strength of the prevailing long term uptrend a Fibonacci analysis has been applied in the chart above. As we can see, the 23.6% bounce has failed to produce a sustainable up move and the odds are that price might now be tested next at the 38.2% level. If price manages to sustain an up move from here then the index could very well resume a healthy uptrend. For now, the monthly chart tells us that we should expect volatile and tight-ranged downward moves for the next 3 months or so.
[Continue to Medium and Short term overview...]


Medium Term Overview - Price Action Read

NIFTY Weekly Chart as of 19th June 2011: Fibonacci retracements plotted; areas of supply and demand shown
The nearest long attempt that The Starving Trader would be interested in is down in the 5065 area. There is a big range of support starting from here right down unto the 38.2% retracement of 4777. Shorting here would probably not get good returns. And this will be an interesting and acid test of the prevailing uptrend.
A decent supply area has now formed above the 5475 zone and so any long attempts right now are not likely to get very far.


Daily Overview - Short Term Supply & Demand

NIFTY Daily Chart as of 19th June 2011: Nearest areas of supply and demand shown
So what should the actions be in the next week or so? Well, let us consider the bullish and bearish factors on this chart...
Bullish:
Tiny pocket of support in the 5230 area
Still hasn't closed below the upward slanting trend line formed since February - although this doesn't seem likely to hold out much longer.
Bearish:
Failed to sustain any moves above the 89 Day SMA (bearish indicator for algorithmic programs)
Supply retest at the previous breakdown low of around 5404, then around 5475, and further at 5690. Any long moves will likely taper off quick.
No significant support zones until 5066 on the weekly and around 4915 on the daily.
Failed to close above the main downtrend since November 2010.
The Fibonacci action from the Weekly and Monthly indicates failed up moves
Clearly, the Bearish factors far outweigh the Bullish. In the next weeks then, any upward moves are likely to taper off and a resumption of the downward trend might be seen, although the range would probably be tight, as indicated by the tightening of the ATR.

*****************************


The Starving Trader

very nice analysis !!!! congrats on achieving targets :thumb::thumb::clap:

 

[thestarvingtrader]

very nice analysis !!!! congrats on achieving targets :thumb::thumb::clap:

Thanks Ayush! Woke up late today because I wasn't expecting such a huge down move right away (don't think many of us were) and noticed that it had already bounced from my intended target. Scrambled to get out at market. Makes a case for "Good Till Cancelled" orders on the NSE.
I mean, the MCX seems to have no problems with this. Anyone shed any light on why the NSE does not allow "GTC" orders?