Technical Analysis - Graduation Day :)

Arsenals I use for success in Trading ?

  • Trading System and Trading Plan

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    11
#31
give you an example, not many years ago, we had open outcry system of trading, system of jobbers,trading rings.....all that changed ...now we have screen based systems, technical analysis ,TA software...and professional traders could adapt to the new environment and they are making money.

hi ST

this reminds me of the time I spent trading in the ring.. life was much simpler then..lots of arbitrage oppertunities..u could always see what the big guys were doing...accumulation in stocks had a pattern... interest rate of 3-4% a month...was too young and naive to make optimum use of the oppertunity then...
but then that is life..

regards
Yes Anurag....those were the days where trends were much more durable, unidirectional and less choppy ....we could take our buy positions and after 2-3 days all will know that the market is going up and all will rush to buy and that was time for us to liquidate and wait for the last man and his mother-in law to buy and market topping out......and we are ready to ride the down move....

With media,internet and computers the information dissimination has become fast and everyone gets information in few seconds.....but that has thrown open more opportunities and though the trends are more choppy now ,our trading has become more precise and accurate....we are much better on our MM. We could adapt to the changing environments very well and good traders continue to make good earnings by aligning them to the changed playing field and the new rules of the game....

Smart_trade
 
#32
Yes Anurag....those were the days where trends were much more durable, unidirectional and less choppy ....we could take our buy positions and after 2-3 days all will know that the market is going up and all will rush to buy and that was time for us to liquidate and wait for the last man and his mother-in law to buy and market topping out......and we are ready to ride the down move....

With media,internet and computers the information dissimination has become fast and everyone gets information in few seconds.....but that has thrown open more opportunities and though the trends are more choppy now ,our trading has become more precise and accurate....we are much better on our MM. We could adapt to the changing environments very well and good traders continue to make good earnings by aligning them to the changed playing field and the new rules of the game....

Smart_trade
Smart trade,

what do u feel from my latest post :)
do i have all that what it takes to become a pro trader.
I want to meet u, take my test and confirm my ability. pls sir.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#33
Smart trade, I have a strange perspective of the markets, which falls in line with my strange technical methodology. In 2007 and 2008 many of my decade's S&R's were getting hit. Thus, the very strong and volatile moves ensued. They were forceful and predictable. The trifectas (OB/OS conditions on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts.) were evident. The trifecta is what what was responsible for Nifty getting hammered the way it did. It's gotten choppy of late because the monthly still wants to hammer down, while the daily and weekly have become OS.
Everything happens within cycles, and within all TF's. When you get the cycles working together as a conglomeration, particularly the trifecta, that's when you get strong moves.
I keep closer tabs on forex. One thing that has been very noticeable is the strong moves on the yen (Forget the tsunami stereotypes, as it was predictable and forecasted long before the tsunami happened.). The USD/JPY hit my decade's S1, while the yen index hit the decade's R1. One look at most of the yen crosses shows what happens when decade's levels are hit. It's a forex tsunami.



Yes Anurag....those were the days where trends were much more durable, unidirectional and less choppy ....we could take our buy positions and after 2-3 days all will know that the market is going up and all will rush to buy and that was time for us to liquidate and wait for the last man and his mother-in law to buy and market topping out......and we are ready to ride the down move....

With media,internet and computers the information dissimination has become fast and everyone gets information in few seconds.....but that has thrown open more opportunities and though the trends are more choppy now ,our trading has become more precise and accurate....we are much better on our MM. We could adapt to the changing environments very well and good traders continue to make good earnings by aligning them to the changed playing field and the new rules of the game....

Smart_trade
 
#34
Smart trade,

what do u feel from my latest post :)
do i have all that what it takes to become a pro trader.
I want to meet u, take my test and confirm my ability. pls sir.
I had read your earlier post and had thought to myself.....hmmm this guy seems to be having all that which one needs to succeed in trading. If you have passion for trading ( this is a must........without passion you have thin chances of success....) , adequate capital, a good backtested trading method ,discipline to strictly follow the method, cut losses short.....add to your winning positions and let your winners run.....and all points mentioned in my above post.....there is no reason why someone does not succeed in trading.......trading is very easy, enjoyable and rewarding...

I am not qualified to take anybody's test as I am also just a trader like everyone else here .....and I do commit mistakes ( lots of them .....:D)

My good wishes for your success.....

Smart_trade
 
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#35
Smart trade, I have a strange perspective of the markets, which falls in line with my strange technical methodology. In 2007 and 2008 many of my decade's S&R's were getting hit. Thus, the very strong and volatile moves ensued. They were forceful and predictable. The trifectas (OB/OS conditions on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts.) were evident. The trifecta is what what was responsible for Nifty getting hammered the way it did. It's gotten choppy of late because the monthly still wants to hammer down, while the daily and weekly have become OS.
Everything happens within cycles, and within all TF's. When you get the cycles working together as a conglomeration, particularly the trifecta, that's when you get strong moves.
I keep closer tabs on forex. One thing that has been very noticeable is the strong moves on the yen (Forget the tsunami stereotypes, as it was predictable and forecasted long before the tsunami happened.). The USD/JPY hit my decade's S1, while the yen index hit the decade's R1. One look at most of the yen crosses shows what happens when decade's levels are hit. It's a forex tsunami.
Hi 4xpipcounter,

You nailed it so well :).

When trends in various timeframes are in phase, we get strong and durable trending moves and when they are out of phase, we get choppy moves as these trends are exerting pressure on the markets in opposite directions as per their position in the overall market structure....it is very important to understand where we are in this interplay of various trends.....if there is any holy grail , in my view this is it.......

Smart_trade
 
#36
Hi Smart_trade,

I want to ask about "TRENDS IN STOCK MARKET".

In the history of stock market or any market , Is Trend always exist in the market, which keeps coming from many years? and will be there forever?

It is understood that it develops due to many external factors like co's results,IIP data,inflations,weather conditions, political issues, greed, fear etc..

But have u noticed that there is no trends or volumes in the market.

Will this trend always be there so that traders like us will make money.

This might be a foolish question but it came to my mind so i asked. thanks
 
#37
Hi Smart_trade,

I want to ask about "TRENDS IN STOCK MARKET".

In the history of stock market or any market , Is Trend always exist in the market, which keeps coming from many years? and will be there forever?

It is understood that it develops due to many external factors like co's results,IIP data,inflations,weather conditions, political issues, greed, fear etc..

But have u noticed that there is no trends or volumes in the market.

Will this trend always be there so that traders like us will make money.

This might be a foolish question but it came to my mind so i asked. thanks
In any market some stocks/counters always have trends even when the general market is in sideways trend. Also if daily or 60 min timeframe is sideways, you will find 5 min timeframe has a trend....

But I have seen markets going totally trendless and flat for extended period of 3-6 months , this happens at the bear market bottoms ( at tops, we generally have great volatility and lots of activity.)....in those periods it is better to shift to other markets as you cannot put life in a dead body. But after such prolonged listless periods at the bear market bottoms the markets have given very strong bull markets lasting for next few years.

Smart_trade
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#38
Argadas, let me give you a different slant on that, but it has always been my belief in order to keep market action in its simplest denominator. BTW, I know you addressed your question to Smart Trade, but your question is irresistible.
One thing I am confident in is when I get done answering your question, and he gets done answering your question, you will probably have 2 different answers, yet the objective viewer would have to agree both answers are right.

Markets have to trend, and there is no getting around it. That is the nature in life. Everything in life moves in cycles. That is also the nature of life being dynamic. External factors? Naw. Don't over complicate things
Let's break this down to its simplest and lowest common denominator. Current rate on Nifty is 5669. Let's say that number just stays there, and we come back one year from now and find it is still 5669. Uh well, we are going to have some problems. Let's say it only moved 1 point (Average daily range is 86.71). It trended. Don't believe me? Look at the tick chart, and see if you don't notice the movement.
Movement is a trend. Markets also can never go just one way. If that was the case, then I could put every dime I have in the markets, train Tucker in pic--lol) to hit the buy button, and we all retire rich.
What I'm saying is, it's checkmate (I don't even play chess, but won this match.) Markets cannot be stagnant. They cannot move just one way. They have to move up and down. It is up to you with the tools you have at your disposal to determine if the market will go up or down. As long as you make the right choice, you make ticks or pips, which translates into money. The more you do it and the more you are right, the more money you have. It's that simple.

It's the nature of things (everything). Tucker and I have good times together. We'll walk around the property. He'll pee on a few trees as soon as we get out, then he'll take a break. Then he'll pee some more, and then head to the other part of out property. After he has covered most sides of the property, he'll head to the middle and squat. Afterward he'll walk a little further, and then there is one particular place he starts off running, because he wants me to chase him. I out thought him the other day. Right before he got to that spot, I took off running, and he looked so surprised.

Weather has the more obvious trends. If you live in India, I won't even ask if it is warmer today than it was 3 months ago. The weather is in an uptrend in the big picture. Tomorrow might be cooler than today, so the lower time frames are in a downtrend, but like I always say, don't count on staying in that downtrend if the higher time frames say we are headed north.

Something so simple as this, and I just had to write a book again.


nt to ask about "TRENDS IN STOCK MARKET".

In the history of stock market or any market , Is Trend always exist in the market, which keeps coming from many years? and will be there forever?

It is understood that it develops due to many external factors like co's results,IIP data,inflations,weather conditions, political issues, greed, fear etc..

But have u noticed that there is no trends or volumes in the market.

Will this trend always be there so that traders like us will make money.

This might be a foolish question but it came to my mind so i asked. thanks[/QUOTE]
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#39


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Smart Trade, you did it again! That is the second day in a row we answered a question at the same time.
I posted this chart in reference to your point. Again, this is so scary, because we gave the same answer but a different way of putting things.
The chart is a daily of the USD/CAD. The circled area was where I made a lot of pips at, because of the copious trade I made within that sideways markets. It was during that time that trend were highly evident on the hourly. I'm not kidding. I wished the market kept going "sideways" forever.

Also, and like you said, notice the consolidative activity at the bottom before the strong move north. It "happened at the bear market bottom".

LOL (Please take this in the right context. I don't want you guys to think I lost my mind.), you are right, but I have to disagree with you along one line--lol. I was not going to shift to another market. I was having fun kicking that dead body while it was down. I was dragging that dead body all over Pipsville.

Yet, you hit it spot on. This is why I track 28 pairs for my trading. If I don't like what I see in one market, I'll move to the next.


In any market some stocks/counters always have trends even when the general market is in sideways trend. Also if daily or 60 min timeframe is sideways, you will find 5 min timeframe has a trend....

But I have seen markets going totally trendless and flat for extended period of 3-6 months , this happens at the bear market bottoms ( at tops, we generally have great volatility and lots of activity.)....in those periods it is better to shift to other markets as you cannot put life in a dead body. But after such prolonged listless periods at the bear market bottoms the markets have given very strong bull markets lasting for next few years.

Smart_trade
 
#40
Trading Strategy/System has been build up in sideways market..was going good and looked like I can bet entire life on this.
BUT..as soon as market turned bullish, my trading system "GAYAB"..
So I'll have to look for strong and reliable trading setups of Bullish market.
means i've to find out another system.

Earlier system will take backseat now and will keep it in my another pocket

If after this strong upmove gets over and it again becomes sideways then my initial system will come forward with some addition/modification depends on market condition.so that will work again there.

As stated by seniors, a trader will generate this kind of systems which can
work in different phase of market and trader will not feel out of place.

So there will be 3-4 systems we can keep in our portfolio. and rotate wherever required.

I have narrated my bit,Seniors pls. look at it and correct my views.
 

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