Some Good Steals...

[AMITBE]

Hi ravi t,
Seems you bought MRPL at its strong resistance levels. Despite its association with ONGC, this has been a slow mover always, and possibly news dependent. I wouldn't say it is in any kind of bearish mode, but seems to be moving sidewards with a slight downwards bias. As long as it keeps above the 38-40 mark it should be safe, though it does not show any sharp downside at all. It can come into play only past your buying price. 45, 47,48 are the 20,50,200 DMA levels, and it needs to cross all these. Whether you should book losses really depends on your position.
kkz59, Regency is sideways at 37 levels, and only at a good close above this with better volumes, will it test 42. Could take some time doing it. Volumes are way less than the last few sessions. Not a bad thing for consolidating after the run up recently. The current level may well be a good comfort zone for now.
Jaspal, Aztec sticks at 135 for now, which does not seem insumountable as the trend is strong, but remember it has come up a long way from the recent drop at 100 off levels.
A lot of the scrips are moving sideways as are the indexes.
No fears!

 

[kumarkant]

The forum ias going great guns... keep it up. My regards to all senior members at traderji...

 

[ashimindia]

Dear Trader Ji,
can any senior member guide me regardingEASUN REROYLE. All of sudden it has gained fromRS150 to 190 in two days trade after languishing there for almost 15 days

 

[sam]

Hi Amitbe (and others),

What do u suggest about getting into Teledata Informatics at this level (ard 28.xx)?
The fundamentals of the company seems strong...kindly suggest!

-Sam.

 

[ravi t]

Dear Amit ji
just tell me some know how of these DMA's. what are their uses and how look for them or calculate( do BSE site show these type of data). how to make decision on these parameters. waiting for an early reply
regards

 

[AMITBE]

Hi there ravi t,
Firstly please drop that 'ji' fro my name. We are all here on a level feild and learning. Only Traderji is the exception, who not only posses a deep command on the subject, but also gives of his time, resources and learning most generously, for which he is respected so much.
DMA simply means Day Moving Average, as in, a 50 Day Moving Average is written as 50 DMA.
Here I am talking of Simple Moving Average, which is in fact, quite simple to calculate. To take the example of a 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA), you add the data of the last 200 days, then divide the result by 200. Quite simple.
The average "moves" and changes each day as the oldest value is dropped out of the calculation and the new day's value added in, so each day you are always calculating for 200 days only. Similarly, you have 20 or 50 or 200 DMA. Here, the data is the closing prices of a scrip each day.
Moving averages with different time spans each can be an important pointer. The shorter the time span, the more sensitive the moving average will be to price changes and conversely, the longer time span is less sensitive. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and smooth out price/volume fluctuations. It is a simple but very useful tool.
Different researchers have evolved various kinds of Moving Averages, and if you are interested in reading up on tech analysis, get yourself a copy of Technical Analysis A To Z by Steven Achelis. It should be available in a good book store that sells Vision Books. It is a great book, very well written.
At the BSE site, go to 'charting', put in a search for your scrip under 'equiity', as there are different feilds like 'indexes' etc. The Metastock software will allow you to study different kinds of charts. Else, go to NSE site and download the daily Bhavcopy and build up your own data. Just browse around the two sites, and you will begin to undersatnd many things.
Hi sam,
It is a difficult call on Teledata. From mid April it has taken a beating for reasons I have not been able to research yet. At the current levels it may or may not have bottomed out. It trades in masses of volumes every day! From a steady drop, only from around June 25 had it gone into a side ways move, and July 9 on, has shown a slight bias to the up. I cant easily go by the volumes here as that could mislead. Looking at only the 15 DMA, at 28 levels, it has nosed up, and theoretically given a buy signal. Anything more than 25 days, there is no buy call, and even if it moved up a bit it has resistance around 29 off. If and when it manages to clear that, expect 34-35. The volumes are always there to push it along, though the momentum that was there in the early part of the week passed, flattened out the last two days. Accumulation and volumes remain flat to down, comparatively. It could possibly benefit when the IT sector gets a push along next week with TCS coming out with decent results, and Infosys etc staging a comeback. It is not my kind of a scrip at present as I would wait for a clear trend. In my opinion, at least wait till it crosses 30 convincingly and pick it on the rise at 30 off with stop loss 27. The fundamentals are strong though, as you said.

So much for now.

 

[ravi t]

dear amit
thanks for your guidance. now one more thing . i have metastock with me but just don't knowhow to use it. i mean how to get the data for allthe stocks you need. is it paid to get the data and how to download it from the sites directley into the metastock. or i have to download it separately and then add it to metastock. please advice.......

 

[AMITBE]

ravi t,
Just saw your question on Metastock....I don't personally use any software except my own data, and occasionally go to BSE/NSE site for charting. You should post this under tools and resources, Software and Data. There are many here who are good with this kind of analysis.

 

[AMITBE]

Hi alland Madhura if you come here, have not been able to go through your list yet, but there are a few new suggestions that may suit you.
There is no update needed to the scrips discussed for now except to say:
Allahabad Bank sits hovering over the rigid resistance at 90-91. The volume build up is good as are the results and this may provide the needed push. Those holding positions, there is hope yet!
Sonata could stage a come back early into the new week.
There is still a lot of juice left in India Bulls and Dabur for those who want.
Im adding some new scrips below and will update these and the previous ones regularly or if needed.

Mphasis BFL: Has been in great consolidation since mid May in 275-284 band with very decent volumes. 280-284 have found comfort levels. At the current closing level of 280.20, the volumes have gone up significantly on Friday, and a break out seems on the cards. It is very near the stiff resistance at 284, and has tested this a few times recently. Watch the volume build up now to enter, and I will update regularly. The target is juicy at around 320, or even more. Should hold short term.

Aegis Logistics (AEGISCHEM): Has run up since the middle of March from 55 levels, and then from the third week of June from 74 levels to close 104 on Friday. What is most peculiar about this scrip is that it runs on very low volumes compared to the standards we are used to. Normally liquidity is a prime concern for me, but this one seems an exception as it has set its own standards. Still looks to be a little over bought, so keep watch for a dip to near 94-96 levels and take your chances. At this time 92 will find a good support for it, and looks like a great scrip for 120 target.

Kopran: After touching 92 in mid May, dipped to 75 early this month, and has now given a slight nose up to close 77.50 on Friday. The volumes have too risen steadily, though still a tad under a lakh. Has a great chance of bouncing from 78-79 levels, and crossing 80-81, its 20 DMA could retrace close to 92-93 and beyond. Keep watch.

Escorts: Has had a great run up since 84 levels end June. Closed 109 on Friday, and seems to have a ways to go. Will have strong support at 107, and showing very bullish tendencies for 115-118 near term. Try to pick at any decline.

Pricol (PREMINSTR): Closed 53.80, and is trading on the verge of its 50 DMA of 55, beyond which will be a break out. Has strong support at current levels and resistance at 55-57. Is a great scrip to watch, and I would enter past 57 for sure and even earlier if there is volume build up. Will keep following and posting.

Indian Overseas Bank (IOB): After hitting 85-86 in early June dropped to 73 at the end of that month. After consolidating between 80-83 since early this month on great volumes, has given a faint buy signal at the 84.20 close on Friday, intraday 185, with over 11 lakh volume. The current levels are a good support. On crossing 87, will test 94-96 levels. Good time to enter a trade at current price.

Nagarjuna Fertilisers: At edging past 16 on Friday has given a clear buy, though has been climbing from 14.75 since 12 July. Needs to cross 17, and as the volumes are great, as have been the rains, expect 22-24 in short term. Has great support at current levels but HAS to cross 17. I had recommended this to Madhura, one of the members here at short of 15 a few days ago. Can enter now.

SBI Home Finance: Had been trading in the 18-20 band since April last year with flat volumes. On crossing the 19 mark on the last two sessions of the past week with good volumes, has all at once crossed its 20, 50, 200 DMA. Closed 21.55, and looks most interesting given that the other home finance scrips are too doing so well. At crossing 24, expect 30 with a hiccup around 27. The momentum should come past 22, but take a chance now to enter early. 19-20 stop loss, but the need may not arise.

Chambal Fertilisers: Closing 33.95 on Friday, this too has given a signal with great volumes. For a whole year has moved side ways between 30 and 32 off and the volumes have always been great. The levels fill form a very stable support. The much awaited break out seems very likely so keep close watch. May test 37-39 in near term.

There are a few more but need to go for now. Will try posting later or tomorrow evening.
Bye.

 

[sam]

Thanks Amit for ur Guidance. Will wait and watch for a positive trend.

-Sam.