Hello SH
Thanks for this new thread with a nice usable concept.
Most of the time contra trades based on these bands work out very well, but i have noticed an exception from the above rule.
When the touch / cross happens or just before that, if the outer band lines and the price are traveling in opposite direction, we should be more cautious.
Simply put, whenever there is a change of trend the first touch to the outer band usually fails to give a good contra trade.
On the charts this condition is easily noticeable as the price turns and the MA / Band keeps going in the direction of previous trend, the MA/Band will eventually also turn in the direction of the new trend in the process narrowing down the envelope.
The touch/cross that happens when both the envelope and price are traveling in the same direction gives a high probability contra trade.
Thanks for these valuable lessons.