Sensex is heading towards 10000 just my thought

[BOLindia]

Well I may be sounding a little orthodox here but i have off late started believing in the power of 9 for the nifty.
The index is pegged to take a very strong support at 4500 because if it doesn't than we will be heading towards 4200 which i feel is as extreme a possibility as 6600 was in Jan'08.
6300 was expected because that level was more than 50 % of the 200 DMA and we hit that level for a brief moment and it proved to be the strongest resistance.Ideally the correction would be 30% of 6300 which is around 4410 but my gut feel is 4500, after observing the 3rd major correction happening since i have been in the market.
If Nifty sustains and consolidates around 4500 then we should be able to find a lot of good buying opportunities and the nifty will take us to around 5400 and consolidate there, before the next bull run starts. I presume we will be able to reach 5400 by June/July'08.
I don't know about the next bull frenzy but when it starts be wary of 7200.

Just Some Food For Thought For the Weekend.

Happy Holi !!!!!!!!

 

[uasish]

BOLindia,

The 'Power of 9' was often discussed some 3-4 yrs back,we would be glad if you can enlighten us on that subject.Earlier we had few active members discussing these things.

Asish

 

[BOLindia]

Well if you know "9" has a very big importance in Hindu Mythology and Beliefs.
It is the number closest associated with the divine. I believe in divine power.
The Stock Market is a very foxy leveler of a persons emotions and intentions. That's where the Power Of 9 comes in. Whenever you will see Greed and Mis-intentions driving the markets to unimaginable highs or lows there is intervention by this power.
We can go about talking and mentioning examples but i do not want to be a preacher here. If people want to investigate they can look at the highest and the lowest points of the previous corrections whether it was 4500,3600,2700,1800,900 or very very close to these numbers or not.
I have started believing in this and also in a very important observation that I read about, made by a Technical Analyst.
Whenever a bull frenzy starts in the market there are two junctures where you should be taking decisive action.
1. When the level of Nifty reaches close to or over 50% of the 200 DMA - Sell and pack you bags ,rest your mind and let the situation unfold.
2. Whenever there is a correction from these levels it is going to be around the 30% correction level from the highs - Buck up yourself, Start building your Portfolio ,start buying and make the most out of it.
People simply adore the way Warren Buffet made his wealth but always forget what his most important principal for trading and investing is BUY WHEN OTHERS ARE SELLING & SELL WHEN OTHERS ARE BUYING. Whenever there is a frenzy of any kind in the market ,don't go with the flow just because everyone is - Take decisive and evasive action to make the most of it.
It's simply said then done but I think every trader and investor in this market worth his salt and has spent at least 3 years observing and taking notes on the various events would know what i am talking about.

These are purely my observations and thoughts. Think about it and take your call in what you want to believe.

I believe that we are just a few years into the start of this very long BULL cycle in the Indian Markets.
Neither our Parents would have nor our children will be ever witness to this sort of a bull cycle.

Warm Regards

 

[uasish]

BOLindia,

Thks for your clarification i was under the impression you where refering Gann sq of 9,however very nice of you to express your views.

Asish

 

[marcus]

Dada,

The power of 9 is discussed in detail in "the logical trader" where market veteran Mark Fisher discusses how he uses it and the ACD system he and his 70 in house traders use to make a living.

 

[Venkat123]

Can BCCI go bankrupt? The way they are spending money, you ought to think they will be one of the first casualties in a downturn.

 

[mehul_hotie]

i dont think so..there will be bottom fishing buy mfs

 

[mahmeds2000]

let me share some more -ve news which recnetly i read are

1. Todays 7 % inflation number is a shocker.
2. Slowdown continues Jan IP was unexpectedly weak.
3. Citigroup
Inflation leads to de-rating of Equities.
4. CLSA
An Asian Recession Looms In Late 2008
In the following sections we reprise briefly the outlook for the next 2 years.
A. Fourth Quarter 07, FH08-Export Order Cancellations begin. Baltic Indexes tank. Weak earnings reports start in Q2 08.
Container traffic to US west coast ports is already don year on year. We would expect the weakening US economy to further intensify that downturn. European economic indicators, from PMI studies to national industrial production and retail sales indices, have already peaked out.
Purchasing power in dollar terms is strong at present but by substituting Asian and US exports for domestic production, European future demand is progressively being undermined. We expect order cancellations from this source to join US cancellations in Q1 08.
B. Second Half 08-Following the Olympics linked consumption boost in Chinese overcapacity becomes apparent. Capacity utilisation drops, profits collapse, malinvestment crises ensues.
This remains the most contentious part of our Apocalypse roadmap. Clearly most international investors disagree with this conclusion. But the price action and equity market inflows into Hong Kong, China and India are telling us that equity fund managers want to show that they are exposed in some way to China, even as the Export market for both regions (the US) is in recession already.
That said, it is difficult to argue with the lack of serious policy attempts to rein in the overheating in Chinese investment and asset markets. These are likely to carry Chinese growth, in our view on ever decreasing marginal returns, through the first half of 2008.
C. Second Half 2008-First Half 2009-Commodity demand slows, prices plummet, corporate earnings at producers turns to losses, global spending weakens further.
This element of our roadmap is the most likely one to be mistimed. While Real demand and supply imbalances are not likely to become apparent until the second half of 2008, when China's investment shake-out begins in earnest-the real danger to commodity prices and commodity currencies is a financial investment unwind.
D. Second Half 2009-2010-US Bottoms out and begins new, muted growth cycle. Boomophobia hits America.

5. India: A Slew Of Downgrades-CLSA
CLSA: Downgrade, A Euphemism For Selling Everything
6.this Q expected result will be bad from last 15 Q results.

So investor must take utmost caution.

Ahmed

 

[sudoku1]

let me share some more -ve news which recnetly i read are

1. Todays 7 % inflation number is a shocker.
2. Slowdown continues Jan IP was unexpectedly weak.
3. Citigroup
Inflation leads to de-rating of Equities.
4. CLSA

But the price action and equity market inflows into Hong Kong, China and India are telling us that equity fund managers want to show that they are exposed in some way to China, even as the Export market for both regions (the US) is in recession already.


5. India: A Slew Of Downgrades-CLSA
CLSA: Downgrade, A Euphemism For Selling Everything
6.this Q expected result will be bad from last 15 Q results.

So investor must take utmost caution.

Ahmed

the US subprime effects were visible in DEC 2007 also......still v were booming like anything....alone from rest of the world.....sooner or later the coming was bound 2 happen....

 

[jnj333]

the US subprime effects were visible in DEC 2007 also......still v were booming like anything....alone from rest of the world.....sooner or later the coming was bound 2 happen....

If one digs a little deep one will find that US subprime was visible way back in Jun2006 and more in Sep 07.