Sensex is heading towards 10000 just my thought

[sujit_76]

Ahmed can you please explain on what you mean by yen carry trade? Every currency pair has a carry trade and the highest rates are with a combination of the YEN and the NZD, what exactly do you mean by "yen carry trade"?

Interest rates in Japan are at 0.5% where as the US treasury bills and Bonds offer around 4%. Japanese investors took advantage of this and are supposed to have invested billions. But now since US$ is depreciating so these investments become not profitable.This may lead to huge outflow of funds from US and causing a further fall in the value of the green back.

This is what we call yen carry trade unwinding.

Hope I am right ahmed

 

[rakeshmalik]

Dear All,

Just my thought.
by Looking all the -ve factor like

1. crude oil above 110.
2. all commodities are at there all time high.
3. Inflation is going up.
4. IIP fig. going dwn.
5. GDP going dwn.
6. subprime problem in india. (ICICI bank)
7. Job cuts in india.
8. 20% salary reduction in satyam.
9. Yen carry trade.
10. Election near future.
11. US recesstion.
12. Very week global market.
13. REality crash in US and UK.
14. FII's are selling heavily from last three month.
15. Expectation of crude touching 200$.
etc. etc.

I got the feeling like we are moving towards the bear market. And we may probably see much and much lower targate of 10000. I was thinking about this when market fall heavily on 21,22.

what is members view?

Ahmed

only no 10 .election is reason for bears.all other reasons are bullish for 18-20k.gold &crude too high real estate not on peak.grain & other commodities metals auto.where to spend except stocks.quite low rates. let fii enter. china has entered all will follow hope better future.you will not mind it. this is my point of view.

 

[sujit_76]

only no 10 .election is reason for bears.all other reasons are bullish for 18-20k.gold &crude too high real estate not on peak.grain & other commodities metals auto.where to spend except stocks.quite low rates. let fii enter. china has entered all will follow hope better future.you will not mind it. this is my point of view.

FIIs have sold Rs.34000 crores in cash market this calendar year. They have sold Rs.1881 crores during the first two weeks.

Please note that they have a huge problem at home and they need money to save there house in US.
Business Standard has reported that FIIs hold equity worth $200 billion(Rs.80000 crores). They are pulling out pretty slowly. One of the saviors for our market has been the low volumes. If the volumes where as good as Dec07 levels this figure would have been quite high. The reason for that is with low volumes the impact cost is very high.

Take care

 

[ravalsb]

to add to wat sujit said regarding yen carry trade....not only japaneses and FIIs are suffering....
more than 30% of ECBs since last year are in yen. So indian companies who have borrowed are also bound to be affected with yen carry trade, if not already hedged.

I have read in an article that 40% of the indian corporates who have borrowed in yen are exposed to forex losses since there positions are not hedged. However, this information requires some kind of validation check.

Regards

 

[sujit_76]

Also as newspaper reports suggest, RBI is contemplating issuing a directive to banks to change the accounting method for these overseas deals by Indian banks. Till now they get accounted for on HTM(held to maturity basis) but RBI is thinking of changing it to AFS( available for sale) method.
Lot of Private sector banks are involved in the Credit Derivatives markets just for speculation gains. But the instruments which they hold does not have a ready market here.
We hope to hear some news on this before year end from ICAI and RBI

 

[rakeshmalik]

"20% salary reduction in satyam"

Is this true? If so, was it across the board? Any links will be appreciated.

all wrong news.

 

[jnj333]

i was not saying EPS/PE constitute fundamentals. i said how money supply effects prices, irrespective of fundamentals and technicals.

if i find a company with a market cap of $1B, with cash of $1B , no debt and has assets, i will buy(of couse i do not have that much money) the company before tomorrows market open, what ever it's EPS /PE is. actually there are investors who do this exclusively. buy the co,downsize employees, get the EPS +ve and sell it off besed of the on new valuation.

since you used intrinsic value , please let me know how to calculate that ?

thanks
Srinivas

To know the intrinsic value of a company is no easy task. Understanding of the business of the company is a must. Indicators could be in dozens or more. For true networth of any company Annual Report can a very good starting point. value which is yet to unlocked could be directly held by the company or may be in its subsidary company, analysis of which could take days or months depending upon self's knowledge and time devoted to it.

Its Like, Think of finding a Unitech when it was trading for less than twenty, or finding Jaicorp when it was available for 100 (prespilt /bonus). These companies beat the sensex by a wide wide margin, ofcourse the Bull Market helped them to acheive their value much earlier than they would have in a bear market but companies like these always beat the bears quite easily.

 

[vclal]

wait and watch is required for the present market rates. There are so many reasons which have caused but ignored for the fall of matket rates. If one has the tolerence and ability to wait till bullish market can purchase at this low rates of blue chip stocks. It is my feeling .

vclal

 

[sudoku1]

wait and watch is required for the present market rates. There are so many reasons which have caused but ignored for the fall of matket rates. If one has the tolerence and ability to wait till bullish market can purchase at this low rates of blue chip stocks. It is my feeling .

vclal

WHEN MKTS climbed from 14 k to 16 k in sep07.....16k was perceived as xpensive & now the viceversa.....
mkts r never cheap or xpensive....its we who make them, according 2 our comfort......

 

[mahmeds2000]

Dear All,

Just my thought.
by Looking all the -ve factor like

1. crude oil above 110.
2. all commodities are at there all time high.
3. Inflation is going up.
4. IIP fig. going dwn.
5. GDP going dwn.
6. subprime problem in india. (ICICI bank)
7. Job cuts in india.
8. 20% salary reduction in satyam.
9. Yen carry trade.
10. Election near future.
11. US recesstion.
12. Very week global market.
13. REality crash in US and UK.
14. FII's are selling heavily from last three month.
15. Expectation of crude touching 200$.
etc. etc.

I got the feeling like we are moving towards the bear market. And we may probably see much and much lower targate of 10000. I was thinking about this when market fall heavily on 21,22.

what is members view?

Ahmed

One more big -ve.
16. Bear Stearns Collapse; Bonds Climb, Dollar Falls.

Ahmed