Sensex heading to 12000 and below (opinion please)
- Thread starter knag
- Start date
Ragards to all the members,
i have my own opinion about sensex @10000 or 12000, lets see comparing this with the bear phase witnessed in 1990 and 2000 time wise correction lets say is another six months. typically the retacement of a bear market is some where close to 50% so lets say the bottom is at 10500, now while i am trading now a days i find that 70% of the trade which is happening is in nifty futures.
at 10500 what will happen is that the p/e of the stock would be close 10 i.e 10X earning well the bear market represents values for intelligent investors in difftent sectors from time to time like today was turn of tchnology.
there are stocks avalaible at 2-3-4-5-6 time the earnings and i am very sorry that we are scared to pick them up.
lets see take example of infosys it trades above p/e of 20 and is to do a eps of 102-108 this fin year, thats not it it has intrest cover exceeding 4450 so if intrest rates increase look for companis having debt/eqity=0 technically this will give best returns.
dont wait for sensex to bottom out select good stocks which have corrected significantly and to absolutly avouid index manuplation dont pick sensex/nifty waitage stock
i have my own opinion about sensex @10000 or 12000, lets see comparing this with the bear phase witnessed in 1990 and 2000 time wise correction lets say is another six months. typically the retacement of a bear market is some where close to 50% so lets say the bottom is at 10500, now while i am trading now a days i find that 70% of the trade which is happening is in nifty futures.
at 10500 what will happen is that the p/e of the stock would be close 10 i.e 10X earning well the bear market represents values for intelligent investors in difftent sectors from time to time like today was turn of tchnology.
there are stocks avalaible at 2-3-4-5-6 time the earnings and i am very sorry that we are scared to pick them up.
lets see take example of infosys it trades above p/e of 20 and is to do a eps of 102-108 this fin year, thats not it it has intrest cover exceeding 4450 so if intrest rates increase look for companis having debt/eqity=0 technically this will give best returns.
dont wait for sensex to bottom out select good stocks which have corrected significantly and to absolutly avouid index manuplation dont pick sensex/nifty waitage stock
It appears the bad news has not stopped from the sub prime fallout in US. Speculations floating around upto 150 banks are in danger of closure. Even if 10% of that number of banks close out and Feds in US have to bail them out, chances are we might see Sensex below 12000. And then there are concerns of inflation in India that may speed downward fall.
So far there is no inspiration from earnings to lift sentiments up and get some conviction back. Its really difficult to visualize FIIs coming back in droves any time soon. We'll probably see 12000 level before seeing 16 or 17K levels, perhaps towards the end of the years. But then again, who knows. Just gut feelings.
Happy Trading
So far there is no inspiration from earnings to lift sentiments up and get some conviction back. Its really difficult to visualize FIIs coming back in droves any time soon. We'll probably see 12000 level before seeing 16 or 17K levels, perhaps towards the end of the years. But then again, who knows. Just gut feelings.
Happy Trading
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