Reminiscences of a trade-learner , journey to become a PRO

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oilman5

Well-Known Member
Lists of good company...what i know...what they do...on what condition company profitability move up...its a key arsenal..................
MARKET HAS TRENDINESS AND ALSO UNPREDICTABILITY ELEMENT. NEWS AFFECT MARKET[UNKNOWN EVENT]........MAJORITY TRY TO GUESS WHAT MAJORITY MAY DO. I TAKE RISK OF PREDICTION BY PUTTING MONEY BUT READY TO RETREAT IF WRONG...AND PUT MORE MONEY WHEN RIGHT.....
UP...DOWN ...VOLATILE...3DIFFERENT STRATEGIC PLAN ...
4TH CASE IS UNPREDICTABLE...HERE I MUST NOT PARTICIPATE...WAIT AND WATCH
.....................
Bill checking is must...on sevaral occation yearly 2/3...i find discrepency....as i find trading stressful...FAMILY AND HEALTH MUST BE GIVEN DUE PRIORITY .
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -TOOL FOR A TRADER

ta helps timing. works on probabilistic model ....with experience one can learn.i start to learn in 1991...D.Cassidy ....basic ta book.....use of volume/some pattern it take me 2 yr to learn basic......mean while i faced (in 1993-1997)2 quack......who consider they know..being novice,i parted some money....only to know they r quack........this is the fact u face now......thats why I insist to learn from qualified
LET us give stress on useful part of ta.
concept of break out is imp......
concept of support buy r useful........
most imp is predict market danger zone(when not to trade)
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learn trend first......
defn of up/down......volatile.......
next distribution /accumulation
........this must be applied on nifty
........then study,..........fibonacci
then study pattern .....psychology behind each pattern
....imp one for actual trading.......
.......in bullish market ..cup and handle
...then learn bearish one.....h&s..double top/triple top.....and what condition they fail

learn shortterm imminent reversal......oneday/ 2day sp. pattern bullish/bearish reversal based on candlestick.
next solve.......gap up and gap down.......use it to judge strength of market....no other purpose.....till u grasp it fully..

after this u should u can look through indicator.....
use ma........dual ma.....experiment with many alternatve.......remember just basic......
smaller one cutting and move up.....shows upward bias.
take a suitable indicator....to gauge strength of market.when u know more study one momentum tool for overbought/oversold .....i prefer william%r.
next level .......is to define and predict........trend or non trend.........which as per me a trader must learn first......2/3 tools available choose any one
....spend time on it........patience pays
now come developing a system based on technical.....ha ha..its ur job(hints r given)
.btw .....in actual position trade,without divergence study do nothing
.........................
u think u know......but.....study another 2tool ...advance decline and new high/low data......and raw moneyflow data...particularly fii/mf.
Next i try to throw some light on rsc......rel strength comparative.....
its a good tool ...first extensively advocated by mark boucher in his course....
its momentum tool....strength of index vs a share.......a stock in a particular sector rank.
Most good work on ta for basic level r available in this great site www.traderji.com.

there is a saying that the "markets are opened by amateurs and closed by the professionals", -if there is a good news the stock jumps up 20% and slowly comes down to come down to 5% gain and if there is bad news about a company the -20% down then corrects to -5%, amateurs wants to buy at any price and sell at any price depending on news ,if there is buying or selling at market open the market may go against that during the day, but when you see heavy selling during the end of a day or heavy buying during the end of the day generally the next day will follow suit,
"buy with the professionals and sell to amateurs.......the reason behind gap up/down .
fortunately.....gap up/down.. fade trading r very useful .
normally amateurs get shock....as they have no plan to trade with it......instead they must write what to do ..if gap up .....this particular value....again another set......if gap up another value......always .....watch by price and flow of market.........whether its diminishing or increasing........this is essence of strategic day trading.
Support and Resistance r dynamic in nature.
moreover...depending on variation on chart...timeframe...it varies
...static idea...as if similarity with daily pivot...reason of most loss .
...instead follow idea of cluster of price zone.....this is one of right approach.A good trader will always make a good analyst,not true for the reverse.
..................to be contd...........
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Technical analysis is the interpretation of price action through the use of charts and indicators calculated from the base stock price information.
... technical analysis doesn't care why price is moving. technical analysis studies a stock's price movement directly.As a TA practicioner We believe that all you need to know is in the price action and operates on the theory that price reflects all known factors affecting supply and demand at that time.
We have to take decision/action before that people make and move markets,
By studying in detail of PAST price action -what has happened in the PRESENT and
as the past tends to repeat itself it can give us an indication from the PRESENT ,what may happen in the future.So technical analysis provides the framework for a systematic approach to trading. More importantly, it gives us the confidence to make our trading decisions- critical for success.
TA provides precise mechanisms for trade entry and exit....the best strategy for determining the timing, particularly useful over the short-term.

Indicators are derivatives or second tiered smoothing of price action. Inherently, all indicators are lagging in one way or another. It is important to understand how they relate to price, potential future movement of price and how they are affected by past price spikes.

does ta work?yes...yes...yes..

trading has a random element..also.. trend factor...
known event..+ expected result ..is always discounted in price...
so u have to know..how to react in unknown...
ta ..visualisation..gives..fair idea...how MAJORITY MAY SHALL BEHAVE...
nothingmore, nothingless...
alterative scenario..must be in your plan.....
if u apply ta in this context...u shall be always successful...
Q1]...TA AS PREDICTIVE TOOL....no hardly 50% times correct...
ta as probabilistic model...definitely workable....
Q2] MOST IMP INDICATOR....
PRICE...normally..few can follow ..with discipline...
price roc...crossing an price 10dayma ROC ..derivative is good...
however...aroon continuation..validity of strength helps...
TRADING ON PRICE HAS 3ELEMENT...NOISE...TREND.....SHOCK/EVENT
Noise..a price within +/- 3%[arbitary..as per my experience ]
its the time u should watch..
soon some big fund /syndicate starts buy or sell..with price change +/-change..defining an up or down trend accordingly...
its when more volume joins ..media writes....oppurtunity to make money for early entrants..when trend is no more moving up.
.[i put hope on triangle pattern shall show CONTINUATION]..ANOTHER RISKY ATTEMPT CAN BE MADE..BUT WITH STRICT STOP..........

Q3] OTHER..HELPING HAND APART FROM PRICE...IF ANY...
VOLUME...MOMENTUM STRENGTH
Q4] WHAT ABOUT PATTERN....
its subjective....experience helps...
Q5]what about support/resistance..trendline....
THIS ARE TOOLS TO 'SEE' HOW OTHER TRADER SHALL BEHAVE...
so its purpose is to prepare trade strategy...
Q6]WHAT ABOUT MA...
better use it as a confirmation tool..., better is ma..X..
q7]divergence study....is it useful ?YES
8]HOW TO STUDY STRENGTH?
correlate..expected...vs. ACTUAL...ANSWER lies there...
9]how can i learn better ta...
USE SOFTWARE.. TO SCAN...SEE CHART.

DANGER OF TA
......................
WITH AV INTELLIGENCE.... IT TAKES..3YR STUDY+2YR PRACTICING
expect another 2yr to mastery...total 7yr to learn

oversold zone..bullish candlepattern...NORMALLY SUCCESSFUL
but those who use sector rotation...higher comparative strength with ..NIFTY...ALWAYS
MAKE PROFIT....
However concept of buyer strength VS. seller stength...
based on that WHO is winning...and JOIN WINNERS SIDE
NORMALLY GIVES PROFITABLE TRADE....
IMP:Technical analysis just points out to the possibility of price action in the future...you have to look for evidence, cross verify, go to the past and future...AND THEN DECIDE whether the probability of occurance AND the CHANCE of FAILURE fits within your RISK - REWARD ratio.
Using different forms of money management with different account sizes, (what my be suitable risk reward to you, may not be suitable to me. )There are nothing like UNIVERSAL low risk trades...then everybody would have taken that and the trade would immediately move away from its base making it a profitable one.
 
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oilman5

Well-Known Member
TOOLS OF TRADING PRO
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Here we shall put Question /ANSWER from ESTABLISHED PRO.PL give due weightage to gospels of trading truth

1. why they r superior ?ans. they are superior by experience and rationality.THEY JUST HAVE BETTER CONTROL OVER THEIR EMOTIONS AND ARE DISCIPLINES.they have better execution skill .
2. what time frame they trade?ans. as they found which suit them with comfort and making money.
3. how far they r subjective in trading ?
ans. no subjectvity.as per system ..entry -exit condition r predefined.however
some sentimental condition r checked.
4. what r the reason for their actual consistency ?
ans.right plan and implementation.improving success rate.
5. on what condition they dont trade ?
ans. condition not suiting their plan. when r/r ratio not favourable.
6. what is their contingency plan[enough is enough..now i am booking loss]?
ans. inbuild in the system.[hence nothing to worry]

7. what self sabotage u find most difficult to overcome..yet how u have done it ?
ans.not following the plan.distract by others openion...soln . follow price in a disciplined way.
8. do u think beginner trader[4yr amateur] can be like u oneday ?if yes. HOW!

Answer: yes . discipline and a solid implemention plan including slippage.....
understand market and good money management.[ignore media]
................................................................................................
1. why they r superior ?
There is nobody superior or inferior as far as markets are concerned.......and the time you do feel that you are superior,that will be when the market cuts you down to size.

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2. what time frame they trade?
Intradays and position trading.......love playing the weekly as well as the 5min charts.

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3. how far they r subjective in trading ?
Used to love words like "subjective","mystical","intuition" once upon a time.......nowadays,the attitude is more to objectification of the whole process.Do whatever it takes,an automated system,or set points of entry,exit and the discipline to always follow the rules of your trading plan.Whatever........but one cannot beat all this fear and greed and hope,by joining the crowd.One therefore stands aside,follows the rules,practically robotic,day after day.

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4. what r the reasons for their actual consistency ?
A trading plan of attack,and then the discipline to follow it to the tee.


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5. on what condition they dont trade ?
There are many,like achieving the targets and more for the month.Also not trading if taking a hit and a predefined percentage point is hit.Or if there is some sort of family emergency......etc etc.

Of course,importantly,when I have a rip roaring,rollicking bullish 60min,I do NOT trade the 5min and stupidly go short.There is enough profits to be made just following the trend of the 60min and trading the 5.

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6. what is their contingency plan[enough is enough..now i am booking loss
Hmm.......stop loss for every trade.Position sizing appropriately.Set Risk percent per trade.Monitoring average wins,losses,drawdowns......blah blahblah,think that what everybody here already knows.

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7. what self sabotage u find most difficult to overcome..yet how u have done it ?
Anticipating a move before it happens,trying to get in even before your trading strategy says so.........got licked many times doing that.But not too much of a problem these days .........now in only when the move happens.


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8. do u think beginner trader[4yr amateur] can be like u oneday ?if yes. HOW!
Any fool can be a trader,every beginner trader can one day become an experienced one.Every trader with a plan and strategy that works can make money off the markets.Why then are 99% people failing at the markets?They go by what a newsletter,a self proclaimed guru,their broker,etc tells them to do.They go by their gut feel,or their neighbour's gut feel.They believe that making money is an evil act.They believe that trading the markets is for spare change .They have yet to educate themselves.They have no plan,no modus operandi,no strategy,no plan of attack...

Approach trading like a business,have a business plan,a trading plan.We are in this to make money and lots of it,as in any business.But strangely,to make lots of money,you have to shift the mind's focus from making money to putting in that perfect trade.Although it's one and the same,you have to maintain focus on the trades.

Everything is cold,calculated strategy and then a disciplined implementation.We are in this to capitalise on other people's fear and other people's greed.......and for that,your own mind cannot work in the process of fear and greed.It has to be quiet.In the present moment.Practically like meditation.

Can anybody and everybody do it?Of course,provided you do all what it takes to be a trader.But sadly,that will never be the case........99% will always lose,not because it's difficult,but because these 99% will not approach it with a plan,with the required discipline.........That stat will always remain.

Can you be that 1%?Surely and definitely,provided you are willing to pay time and energy and focus to making yourself a great trader.
........................................................................................................
so we clearly see some difference between pro and serious amateur.
no1. level of comfort and serenity.
no2. least subjective.
no3.worst scenario is already planned and mastery over implementation.
key word is discipline and practicing their tool.
..............................................
let us come to view the idea from PRO.

In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular price pattern or market behavior offers a level of predictability and a risk to reward ratio that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. Without it, one is just "playing" the market in order to have something to talk about on message boards. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it. This process is what the journal is all about.

The journal goes through several stages depending on where you are. Once you've decided where you want to concentrate your efforts (at this level, the journal may resemble a diary), then you begin the process of developing a system (or method, strategy, procedure, whatever you want to call it). Here the journal takes on a different character. Once you've developed a tentative/preliminary system, you begin testing/trading it, and the journal adopts a still different character.

The first step is to decide what kind of trader you want to be.

* What do you want to accomplish with your trading? Is it recreational? Supplementary income? A part-time job? Do you want to make a living at it? Even the greenest of the green knows whether or not he wants to make a living at it, trade only part time, trade for recreation, trade for the action, trade to have something to talk about with other traders (for whatever reason), trade only long enough to earn money to do or buy X.

* Do you have any idea what sort of trading is most comfortable? Long or intermediate-term trading? Short-term trading? Day-trading? Trend-trading? Scalping? (Note here that a short-term trader, for example, does not become a long-term trader just because his stop was hit and he didn't sell; a long-term trader doesn't become a short-term trader because he chickened out and sold too soon. Each of these approaches are selected deliberately and for thoroughly-considered reasons.) How patient are you? How adventurous? Are you a leader or a follower (most people think they're leaders)?
The second step is to decide what you're going to trade and when you're going to trade it.

* Have you found an instrument -- futures, stocks, ETFs, bonds, options -- that provides you with the range and volatility you require but also the safety that enables you to relax and trade in an objective and rational manner?

* Have you yet found a time (5m, hourly, weekly) or tick (1t, 200t) or volume (1K, 100K) interval that gives you enough trading opportunities but also gives you enough time to think about what you're doing? If you want to limit your trading to the "morning", are you physically and psychologically prepared to trade all day? If not, can you shrug off whatever opportunities you may miss by limiting the amount of time you spend trading?

The third step is to develop your system*.

A system consists of (a) a set of rules that you use to select profitable positions and (b) a set of rules that you use to manage the trade once you're in it. (*Note: again, whether you call it a system, a method, a strategy, a plan, a scheme, an approach, a procedure, or a modus operandi is not as important as sitting down and doing it.)

* Developing a system begins with deciding just what it is you're looking for. Therefore, begin by studying price movement in real time (or at the end of the day through "replay", if your charting program offers it). By "study", I mean to observe it with intent, not just read about it or listen to somebody talk about it. Note the conditions under which price rises, falls, drifts. Make every effort to avoid imposing your biases onto what you observe. You may see trading as a war, a competition, a game, or a puzzle. You may think you're out to kill somebody, outwit somebody, or are out only to detect the flow and slip into it, riding the waves as if you were sailing. None of this should be allowed to affect what you observe.

* Develop a set of preliminary hypotheses which exploit the profit opportunities presented by these movements, e.g. price began trending "here". Price broke out "there". Price reversed "there". What can I do to take advantage of that? What do I have to look for?

* Decide what strategy will best take advantage of what you think you've found. Are you looking to catch a reversal in the hopes that it will become a trend? Or are you looking to trade series of reversals within the day's or week's range? Or do you prefer to wait for a breakout and trade what may become a trend? Or would you rather wait for a retracement in what may be shaping up to be a trend? Limit yourself to only one strategy at the beginning.

Carefully define the setup which implements this strategy, preferably using old charts (attempting to define the setup by studying realtime charts is inefficient since you don't yet know what it is that you're looking for). This is called "backtesting". All else flows from this. Unless you know what you're looking for, you cannot test it, much less screen for it. If you have not tested it, you have no idea of the probability of its success. With no idea of the probability of success, any trades made are essentially guesses.

Therefore, focus on the setup. Once setup. Determine its characteristics. Define it so specifically and so thoroughly that you can recognize it without any doubt whatsoever in real time. Decide provisionally where best to enter, what the target ought to be, where the stop should be placed, and so on. Only after the setup is defined and tested (and it can't, ipso facto, be tested until it's been defined) can one even begin to think about trading it with real money, much less trading multiple setups. Attempting to shortcut this process merely expands the amount of time it will take to develop the necessary skills. Nothing is gained by painting the house before scraping it, cleaning it, and priming it since you'll have to do it all over again sooner rather than later.

* Forward-test what you have so far, again using old charts, preferably replaying them (if replay is not available to you, then scroll through them, bar by bar). In other words, "pre-test" the setup. Make whatever modifications are necessary to the setup, i.e., re-examine and re-define your strategy. Address risk management, trade management, money management in further detail. Determine the ratio of winning trades to losing trades (you will, of course, have to define "winner" and "loser", which is where risk management and trade management come in). Determine the ratio of profit to loss. Determine the maximum loss. Determine the maximum number of consecutive losers.


Note that beginners often use "win/loss" to combine two separate considerations into one, and failing to keep them separate can create problems. One is win:lose. The other is profit:loss. Between the two, the "lose" and the "loss" have two distinct meanings. Win:lose refers to the ratio of winning trades to losing trades. Profit:loss means, expectedly, the ratio of profit to loss.
You'll read that the % of winners can be less than the % of losers as long as the winners are sufficiently profitable, one's management is superior, etc. And, yes, theoretically, one can "win" less than 50% of the time if his profits sufficiently outweigh his losses. But if your real-time real-money test begins with a string of the losses anticipated by your backtest, you'll be out of the game almost before it begins. In fact, one can be left high and dry even if his % of wins outnumber his % of losses, as mentioned above, if there is insufficient control of the amount of loss OR if the losses occur in sufficiently high numbers at the beginning of the trial.Then there are commissions and assorted trading costs to take into account, which is why traders who actually trade find that, without size, all the postulations about percentage don't mean much in practice.
* Paper-trade this plan, in a simulated environment, as a semi-final test, until you are satisfied that it performs at least as well as it did during the previous testing phase. This may take several months or more depending on how many trials you perform. If your plan is not consistently profitable, go back however many steps are necessary to arrive at a potential solution. (See also Making High Probability Trades.)

* Trade the plan using real money in real time, spending only what is absolutely necessary on "tools" and trading the minimum number of shares, contracts, etc., allowable. If your plan is not consistently profitable, go back .however many steps are necessary to arrive at a potential solution. Recalculate your win rate and profit:loss ratio on a continuing basis.

* If your plan is consistently profitable in practice, increase your size to what is a comfortable level, maintaining a continuous loop of re-appraisal and re-evaluation. When things come unglued, back up as far as necessary to regain your footing.


Novices rarely do any of this. They borrow something from somebody or somewhere and perhaps modify it somewhat, but they rarely go through the defining and testing process themselves. Some just try whatever seems like a good idea and hope for the best.

If one has absolutely no idea where to begin, there is nothing wrong with using a canned strategy IF it is used only as a point of departure. In other words, the canned strategy, regardless of what it is or what claims are made for it, still has to be tested, which often entails taking what is unexpectedly vague to begin with and defining it to a level of specificity that enables the testing to take place (it should come as no surprise that those who do go through the process succeed and those who don't, struggle, often to the point of being driven out of the market). Examples of canned strategies that are reasonably well-defined include the Darvas Box, the Ross Hook, the Opening Range Breakout, O'Neil's Cup With Handle, Dunnigan's One-Way Formula. Some of these are more vague than others and will require considerable work on definition before they can be tested. But they serve as points of departure
A journal should be more than just a trading log – bought here, sold there, made this, lost that. It should be a record of your journey (that's why it's called a "journal"). If done correctly, a journal will reveal patterns. Patterns of what you're doing right and what you're doing wrong and when and how often and under what circumstances. Patterns of the behaviors of those who are trading your stock (bond, fund, option, whatever). Patterns of the market you're trading, of its cycles, of its stages, of what works at some stages and in some cycles and not in others. It will reveal much regarding your trading. It will also reveal much regarding your self.

Addressing the questions asked and defining and testing the setup are only the preliminaries. Eventually, one starts trading, if only on paper, and that is where the journal can make the difference between success and failure.

A journal is not just a record. It is also a plan. Before the first trade is ever made, even if only on paper, prepare for the day. Note any events that you should be aware of (reports, press releases, meetings, speeches, testimony, nuclear explosions, approaching meteors, etc). Write down reminders of any elements of the trading plan that you're having trouble with and what you intend to do about them, e.g., “don’t take any trades anywhere but at support or resistance” or “be wary of wide-range bars” (this may be necessary as early as the afternoon of the first day).

Above all, record your justification for each and every trade. Record your thoughts before, during, and after the trade, written in real time* (your perception of what looks to you like a potential setup will change substantially after the “setup” resolves itself, and when you ask, later, “what the hell was I thinking?”, your record of your thoughts -- your "self-talk" -- will tell you, so that the next time, in real time, you’ll have a deeper and more rational perspective). This is more than just the reason for the trade (“It looked like it was going to go up”). It is more than the rationalization (“It was time for it to go up”). It is more than the mystic prompt ("I felt it was going to go up"). It’s the justification for it, the explanation that one would provide to one’s boss or client if he were trading for someone else. If everyone wrote down the reasons behind and justifications for every trade, their learning curves would be accelerated dramatically.

SO THE TOOL IS NOTHING BUT HIMSELF BY WHICH PLAYING IN HIS STRONG ZONE HE CONSISTENTLY MAKES MONEY OUT OF MARKET [ANY INDICATOR OR INDICATORS WHICH SIGNAL CONFIDENT RATIONALISED BUY AND SELL]HE KNOWS HOW TO HANDLE SUBJECTIVITY..RUMOR...LOSS AND PROFIT...
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
I present here.'how to lose money in stockmarket'......pl avoid them
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1]Trade in options without understanding and context of present market condition
2]not use stoploss
3]Cut your profits short and let the losses run
4]Select a method and start trading it because you are in a hurry to trade, not because the method is sound
5]Don't use any method or plan at all! ... Just buy as much as you can or short as much as you can
6]Take a position and go to sleep!
7]Listen and trade according to CNBC calls........(JUST REVERSE ,ITS GOOD EARNING METHOD).
8] Never use your own brain for trading ... Never try to learn anything but taking position and squaring it off! Search extensively secret underground sources for TIP ...
9]Trade against trend ..........BUT THIS IS ONE OF MY EARNING METHOD.
10]Engage in extra-curricular activities during market hours AND Forget your commitment of trading seriously/mindfully .
11]Always assume that you are right..even when proved wrong by price....take it as temporary setback and start with fresh vigor resuming your assumption that you are and will be always right.
12] If the basic hypothesis upon which a trade is entered does not exist, then one has to remain in the trade, hoping the situation will improve(actually it worsens)
13] Emotions aka false ego.... i know all -i longed/shorted this script and its going to follow me,i longed/shorted this script coz i know all about markets,(always remember markets are supreme)
.................................................. ....
Avoiding the methods of losing money mentioned in this thread would be quite helpful to become a successful trader
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Just curious to see what are worst trading mistakes that we commit- to help each others.

* Traded blindly without any homework or trading plans (poor discipline).

* Traded impatiently in congestion or non-trending zone (poor trade plan).

* Traded without Stop Loss or with too big Stop Losses (poor Risk Management).

* Traded way too many trades in a day resulting net losses (overtrading).

* Traded against the prevailing trend and then booked losses (Ego problem).

* Traded with the trend but booked small profit and too early.(forgeting trade rule)

* Traded with good plan (mm, rm, plan, discipline) but with no faith in the plan resulting less profit .

* Traded at Market Price in less volume scrips resulting big losses.(novice mistake)

* Traded on speculations, rumour or news and getting trapped in Market Makers game resulting big losses.

*Traded within fear/greed barrier and without knowing risk/reward ratio.(emotional fool)

* Traded on spoon fed tips resulting huge losses. Traded getting psyched from CNBC or US/Europe speculations and resulted huge losses.(food to pro)

* Traded not even realizing after loosing lots of money & time in markets is Not Knowing which Time frame suits personality.(Ignorant)

* Averaging and overleveraging to losing position and selling in panic.(novice)

* Converted intraday or swing trades into short term and long term without reasons.

* Was unable to bare the loss and then traded more and more to recover the loss..ultimately completely or nearly wiped out the account(self sabotage)
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Since before a trader for many years i played chess - i put forward my observation and similarity .Views are mine- true reflection on market.
I write this as many chess players here, so they use their strength properly. a single trade is nothing........
1)WHY u write & then move..........thats risk/reward analysis.Stock market chess

2)while learning trading ,chess model helps......as it teaches unpredictability, skill of opponent[adversity]lucky if opponent accepts gambit/trap.........oppurtunity backed by price confirmation.
Stock market chess
1.there is always a seller for a buyer.see otherside of story,..only one can be right.

2.evaluate only what matter,nothing more.Tactics is very imp.Chess tells u to think

3.chess in totality contain perfect info, unfortunately market is not

4.decifer price, if nothing visible go with intuition[an intellectual skill developed based on pattern study & problem solving skill.Always see sacrifical trap and positional strategy

5.play market with a plan ,longterm or shortterm.3move attack vs. attack on king .

6.review constantly in eod and adjust accordingly. Look at market's last day activity and last hr.Refer to move at hand and opponent�s last move

7. dont waste money[dont allow loss to run].Never allow unnecessary piece loss.

8.press winner when u have them.Know how to win won-game.

9.winning reqd not only perfection from u,also mistakes from others.Play well also watch,opponent may give u opportunity.

10.when u have got early signal, buy.Take initiative.

11.always give high priority with nifty.itis the center.

12.development of knowledge , time is money..Development of pc, it needs purpose

13.dont try leverage if u cant handle,use resource wisely..premature attack is costly.

14.trade study-never ignore mistake.Chess study..admit blunder and reason of loss

15. stay in your own zone,stock selection.dont be flashy to win.

16. fundamental contrarian, high level of vision .Stock market chess.Grand master break the rule as he sees better, others understand it later.
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Some years back i played chess match...an old friend of mine...who knows 30yr back..
arranged a match..a buddy young chess..prodigy..vs this old fool..
The chap...a champ.....a 2hr each match..in white...vs.. old fool black..
...the old fool taken 2day off ..one for to rest.. throw away rubbish..goodsleep.... I plan to win against 17 yr old teenager would be pro...old man know what he gets .. awaiting in match..
A theoritical attack..king/ Qside attack..
a sharp sacrifice...
....my FOOLISH STRATEGY...bring him in unknown zone..
obscure PETROCIAN STYLE..[this young champ may not knew then,definitely know presently]
MATCH STARTS...I[OLD FOOL]....play as per plan..
young chap..plays.....after all he- named a prodigy..
play with skilled..tactical game..unfortunately old fool dont FIGHT...
[HE KNEW STORY OF MIGHTY NEPOLEON'S RETREAT IN MOSCOW
....SO THE SITUATION..Q..EXCHANGE..
ALSO 1ROOK...1 BISHOP...
BUT YOUNG LOST HIS STAMINA...SHOWING SIGN OF IMPATINCE......
SO I USE A PLOY..A DECOY A LOOSE PAWN..
.. A 2ND DEFENDING ROOK ...+A H' PAWN AGGRESSIVE WITH g 4.. king position...
after...long pause..young accept...a plan..
the old fool..in no hurry to move...not showing ploy[being indifferent]
the chap.. own the pawn
its simple its possible....ab pawn vs b pawn...and in defend.. ..
king is always there ...
but.....but... to put long story short..

Around 10 min left.. the young champ understands he is losing..
he played.. he showed why he nominates for india junior..

this FOOL WON..
THE CHAP SIGHED...

[I ENJOY MY KILL...]..
POSTMORTEM STARTED...
[HERE COMES THE LESSON OF MARKET]
he has no mistake..no wrong move..
perfect play .. just like a champ
i smile...my friend laughed.."i told you he knew chess...
1975..before..u r born..he ranks 1st 10 in his STATE..
...his last match.. 2002,,where..he lost against are top rated..Loyd bank champ..
i say 'jane do..'.

its a known fact in chess..half hr chess is better than 5min..1 hr rapid is better .2hr is further better..classic chess brings out of a champ...
definitely time to think improve quality...quality of selection and timing...

and see the ploy/decoy..so called news trap and marketing/gimic...
foolish greedy bull trap...
fortunately u , trader has another weapon..time out....stop loss
Chess has given me structured thought process, what to do NOW........its no way with intelligence.
As alternate scenario always to be evaluated ,........so change in situation(read market condition can be easily exploited)
IT teaches value of offence,as well as in case sudden scenario change u have switch in defensive mode(read stoploss activation)
Third thing it helps to use patience .......not to play aggressive ,when situation is not favourable.
..........Since it takes of 10 yr learning to play in national level.........it helps to start my journey to be new student of market ........for atleast 10yr.......being slow learner its my 20th yr.
only drawback i find is stubbornness.
........................................................
Best way i can describe a trade system, which give consistent return........as a model simult display of a GM against av chess player,.......its many time done in india, in big city.
Concept is famed player,GM plays against a lot chess enthuastic 20.....50 ......100 in clock , normally 1st move WHITE,.......walk and give move.....and play simultaneously. HOW?
YES he has many yr preparation on that line.......with all known variation in brain , at least 15 move opening ,within a minute.2nd he has tremendous pattern recognisation capacity.In middle game he is tactically superior to all his opponent.Position understanding of his .......is far superb.When he walks before a board , he simply can concentrate posion at hand, find a superior move[dont waste for the best one]...move way to next board , play similarly,,,,,,,,and continue.HE may lose 1-2, 2-5 may be drawn,but most others r definitely WON by him. He concentrates against strong opponent , think and use end game knowledge .......play AS PER DEMAND OF SITUATION.
.........He never bother for a particular table move, just play .......best of his callibre ,coolly.
THIS is the way fund manager trade, ........as per position/time demands......single trade never distract.....he knows superiority of his system......knowledge,application,calmness.

TRADING PERFORMANCE
.................................
VISUALISE..A chess player analyzing the board for the next move...
Trading as a Performance Activity.Humans choose when to take action and when to refrain; they can select various courses of action on different occasions and can invent new strategies when needed. performance is a function of the chosen actions of performers, the correctness of those choices, and the skill with which the actions are carried out. Activities that are performed well on a consistent basis require a high degree of skill. A lucky outcome is exception.There are individuals who can be identified as expert performers. With very rare exception, expert performers are ones who have developed their talents over time. Most expert performers undergo specialized training to cultivate their talents.

They require a specialized knowledge base. To perform well in a field, a person must master the information and skills specific to that field.
Trading, as a performance activity, has much in common with chess. It is competitive, requiring a high degree of concentration and strategy. It also features a limited number of actions that, in combination, create a large array of possible strategies and actions. This makes both activities easy to learn, but difficult to master. Chess can be played in lightning fashion, with very little time between moves, or it can allow players many minutes to plan moves—or even days (postal chess). Trading can also be conducted on a very short-term basis or can be planned and executed over hours or days. These similarities make chess an excellent starting point for examining the performance dynamics of trading, especially since chess is one of the performance fields most studied by researchers.A well-replicated finding in chess research is that the memory processes of experts are different from those of non-experts. One intriguing set of studies took chessboard arrangements from a past tournament games and briefly showed them to expert players and novices. Afterward, the expert chess players were able to recall the positions of many more pieces than the novices. When the two groups were shown chessboards with randomly arranged pieces, however, their recall of the positions of the pieces was quite limited. The researchers’ conclusion was that experts do not have better memories than non-experts; rather, they have better memories for meaningful relationships among chess pieces. Instead of remembering where each individual piece was on the board, the experts viewed the board as clusters of pieces and remembered these. When the board was randomly arranged, there were no meaningful clusters of pieces and the experts had no effective means for encoding their information.

How do expert chess players gain this ability to perceive meaningful patterns among pieces? Because chess players are given ratings based upon their tournament play, it is relatively easy to compare experts (masters and grandmasters) with less accomplished players. When a variety of factors are incorporated into multiple regression equations to predict chess ratings, two stand out as highly significant:The number of books owned and The cumulative number of hours spent in practice correlation between the amount of time spent in practice and current performance ratings was .60
it is necessary to understand what chess books are and how they are used. These texts typically break the game down into components (opening, endgame, defenses, etc.) and present historical games from tournaments, along with annotation from an expert author. Readers do not merely skim over these games; they learn specific opening or defensive sequences and then see how these were utilized in actual games. They recreate those games on their own boards and carefully play through the positions, so that they can see what the expert players saw. They also play through alternate sequences to observe where these might lead.

Interestingly, chess experts do not have significantly more chess-playing experience than non-experts. Rather, a higher percentage of the experience of experts is spent in the systematic practice of various facets of the game. Non-experts tend to spend a higher proportion of their time in games against similarly-skilled opponents. This experience neither exposes the learner to the moves of experts, nor does it provide time for a careful review of moves, exploration of alternate lines, etc. In the Charness work, the correlation between solitary practice and chess ratings is almost twice as high as the correlation between practice with others and ratings. This is because solitary practice with chess books allows learners to obtain chess knowledge in context. Instead of focusing on the moves of an opponent, learners encounter—again and again—those meaningful configurations of pieces that appear in the games of experts
Because of this, chess students can create and play through almost any challenging situation imaginable, drawing upon the accumulated wisdom of experts. Trading possesses no such database. Trading books, unlike chess texts, are not annotated compilations of the trading decisions of objectively rated experts. One cannot use trading books to recreate trading sessions or to systematically explore trading decisions and their alternatives.As a result, traders tend to spend little time in the systematic practice that is the single greatest predictor of chess expertise.REMEMBER...In every performance field, the development and maintenance of expertise requires a high ratio of time spent in practice relative to time spent in actual performance.Athletes spend far more time working out, practicing, and scrimmaging than actually playing in competitive events.Only significant time spent in absorbing winning and losing chess enables players to internalize the patterns of play that distinguish experts from non-experts. The trader who spends more time to learn,observe and practice..definitely is superior.The expert trader needs to be able to review and re-experience markets and systematically rehearse facets of trading performance: entering, managing, and exiting positions.Think of each trading session as a chess game, and each game as a contest between two expert players named “Bull” and “Bear”. Every short-term swing in the market is a move by Bull or Bear that ultimately leads either to a victory for one of them or a draw. In tracking the moves of Bull and Bear, we can pause the match at any point and observe how each player exploits the weak moves of the other. With the aid of an electronic database that collates similar trading sessions, we can even explore how alternate moves by each side produce different outcomes. Moreover, we can play and replay the “games” (and their similar variants), seeing if our simulated trading decisions accurately reflect our reading of the strengths and weaknesses of the players’ positions.

How could we practice this?Programs that allow users to save and replay tick data are especially valuable, as this creates a library of trading sessions akin to the collections of chess games found in books... general rules and advice do not turn chess novices into experts, and there is no reason to believe they will advance the performance curve for traders. Knowledge and practice—and especially the direct experience of knowledge-in-practice—are the keys to the acquisition of expertise.so now we know why most socalled traders fail.. they have failed to structure their learning to facilitate expertise.
they fail to put systematic work into performance....HENCE LEARN DYNAMIC TRADING CONCEPT..AND IMPLEMENT IT.

To understand view on stocktrading , just see the win of final match of Vishy......Topalov ,a child.(queen's indian defence) The game idea is of SSganguly.......black creates a drawish style,......a simple ...Ba6......later Bb7........a poisonous La Dragon.......Topalov forget.......Anand had played many aggressive game in younger yr,......so small positional element,backed by a surprise ploy......f5 ,really can outwit on board. This style of SSGanguly is unknown outside india...to many so called best rated player[read quant]
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
II]Presently we are FOR ADVANCED LEARNER (5-10 YR IN MARKET) ,so price study
in multivariate market condition with TA/application are discussed .With an analogy from bridge i shall complete the chapter.However 3 SUCCESSFUL PRO -who are about 5-10 yr in market and selflessly given trade guidelines -VVONTERU, SWINGKING, TNSN2345 in traderji.com shall be reflected for making you a PRO.(as they have given detail analysis ,including psychological part of trader's development)

BRIDGE ANALOGY :here i am trying to write a great discussion with Arun k...it was 2003. [his father was manager of indian bridge team]have u played bridge ?'...i asked. he smiled. he had given a good lecture on indian economy..effect on suppose promisory notes r banned..he was a part of India Shining slogun,....so i told him 'trading is nothing but a bridge competition. cards come ....u have to play.
Partner is ur system ..u have to tune.play 2/3 yr of practice deal..so with all/various conditions how to react ....is ready for u.Opponents r other participants in market
...Never allow them to win(but have no good cards)...so at best..u can defend ..not to give extra tricks.
But sometimes they overbid ..your hand suggest..something wrong..u got oppurtunity.
.now double..and ;'score high'....BUY IN OVERSOLD MARKET..
OR BOOK PROFIT ..IN OVERVALUED MARKET.
u got a good hand..u have to play as declarer...thats the oppurtunity u must buy....but ready for bad colour break..by defender.
Try to score as best as possible with limiting risk.
bidding system...a general trade governing rule by which u decide 'whether to play..or its better to defend'
competitive selection trial..pairs event'...the game played with same card with directional opponent..your score shall be 'comparatively better with others'.............IT IS THE DAYTRADING..UR ULTIMATE SKILL WILL BE TESTED
UNLESS EXECUTION MASTER..AND GREAT SURVIVAL SKILL'DONT COME'..
.however its a reality checking m/c to know where u stand in trading arena.
[professional traders-bridge players enjoy this similarity]

With this i am concluding advance learner's theory.
Bye my friends
oilman5
 
Hey Oilman,

Big Institutions focus on other Big Institutions to compete.So wat does Professional Traders do?....Do they focus only on wrong moves of novices or they also try to extract a bit from d investments made by these BIG PLAYERS .
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Hey Oilman,

Big Institutions focus on other Big Institutions to compete.So wat does Professional Traders do?....Do they focus only on wrong moves of novices or they also try to extract a bit from d investments made by these BIG PLAYERS .
.......................................................................................................
my defn of PRO is who is hired by FI for his trading/investment skill. HE may get a profit % or good bonus as incentive.....definitely they select him by seeing about last 3yr performance /tax statement.
Another is independent trader-who an ex, presently work alone .
Others socalled r nothing but advance learner,though regularly earn from market.Ofcourse there is media hype people , who actually dont trade, but get paid for their talk.
...........................
yes highest search is to trade against novice ie. bull trap/bear trap r main theme.
OFCOURSE if they see oppurtunity in trend ,use it.
definitely theme on investment r utilized after big fall,actually short term trade.
Another thing heavily utilized is research div..............sell side theme they use to book profit , but dont like to acknowledge .
hope some hints r given.
 
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