RAJ Trading diary

[healthraj]

Dear Healthraj,

Can u tell me how to know if there is big trend ahead or not???

Thanks!

Once again the answer is very simple.
Identifying Up Trends
A stock is in an up trend when the price is making a series of higher highs and higher lows

Identifying Down Trends
A stock is in a down trend when the price is making a series of lower highs and lower lows

But the difficult thing is when to Enter, let us say the stock has made a higher highs and higher lows for the past two days, we might assume that it is in up trend and we might want to enter LONG... So there is no straight answer, because you always need to take that little bit of risk.

So you need some extra bit of luck also because once you have had the luck and things are going in your then the losses on NON-TRENDING days should be covered with the BIG PROFITS that you made on those TRENDING days....

I will try and post the answer on "How to identify the Trending Stocks and Markets?" in more detail in one or two days because I am also researching on the same question.

 

[mangup]

Positional Trading

Due to lack of time and the nature of work, I would have less time to do the Intraday trading. So I am looking for a good Positional trading system for the Trending stocks and NIFTY Futures. I have been fairly successful in the Intraday NIFTY Futures but it takes a lot of your time and energy.

With whatever experience I had, my observation is all those systems work well in the TRENDING market. But when it comes to NON-TRENDING markets all those system fail miserably.

So this weekend, I was trying different stuff and backtested one simple system for SBIN and NIFTY.

The system is very simple.
1. At the EOD around 3:20 pm, calculate the average close (ACL) and average open (AOP) of the today and yesterday.
2. If ACL > AOP, Buy Else Sell.
3. Next day At the opening of market, put a STOPLOSS order.
4. At the EOD, Close the positions and Repeat Steps 1 to 4....

The above system does not take into account the Gap UP and GAP Down days... Which I will do whenever I have time.

Those who want to see the results can download and see the files from the below links. Of course the results look great on paper. But need to see how it works in the real mode.

http://www.4shared.com/file/rxVXj_IA/SBIN_2DAY_Open_Close_Avg_Posit.html
http://www.4shared.com/file/S2VVrFIC/NIFTY_2DAY_Open_Close_Avg_Posi.html

The advantage of the above system is that you don't need to spend a lot of time before the monitor. You just need 10 minutes of your time daily and the Law of averages and the Results on Big days should help....

But you need a right time to enter the market....
Need to enter when there is big trend like we had in Jan-12, otherwise the system can kill you with the initial losses..
Experts please let me know your thoughts.
I am planning to do paper trading on this system before using it actually.

In the Excel tool,
- Have provided options to control Pyramiding
- To choose the initial positions
- Lot size
- Margin %

So if you paste the OHLC for any stock you will be able to see the results....

Thanks Raj for the Excel file.
I am sure u must have taken lot of efforts to make it.

It is slightly complicated to understand.
1. Can u pl explain the "Abbrevations" used in the file with some examples in sequence as i am finding it difficult to understand?
2. The position to be opened at 03:20 pm or the next day?
3. What will be the SL level ? When to put it in system?
4. As per Nifty file, per day profit earned comes to app 20 which is app 75% returns on monthly basis. Is it correct?
5. Also i have not understood the pyramiding portion of the file?

 

[healthraj]

Started a new thread for the Intraday-Positional trading strategy. Interested people can download the Excel tool with back tested results for the Past two years.

I have shared one file for NIFTY and another for the SBIN stock...

http://www.traderji.com/advanced-tr...-days-winning-20-trade-nifty-futures-bac.html

 

[healthraj]

The Total points got in NIFTY using the strategy is as below (with 10 points as Stoploss)

2010_07 0
2010_08 -89
2010_09 502
2010_10 266
2010_11 104
2010_12 202
2011_01 310
2011_02 140
2011_03 64
2011_04 -39
2011_05 23
2011_06 174
2011_07 6
2011_08 342
2011_09 -27
2011_10 9
2011_11 229
2011_12 183
2012_01 75
2012_02 81
2012_03 76
2012_04 -63
2012_05 86
2012_06 213
2012_07 19

 

[Ajit57]

Hi Raj,

Since the start of this thread you were emphasising on EMA(3), EMA(13) & CCI(14) strategy ... Then midway you started using SMA ... I have tried the earlier one with EMA and I feel comfortable with it ... Are there any major flaws in the EMA strategy ... Please guide ...

Thanks

 

[healthraj]

Hi Raj,

Since the start of this thread you were emphasising on EMA(3), EMA(13) & CCI(14) strategy ... Then midway you started using SMA ... I have tried the earlier one with EMA and I feel comfortable with it ... Are there any major flaws in the EMA strategy ... Please guide ...

Thanks

No it is still good. When the markets are trending I still use EMA(3), EMA(13) & CCI(14) strategy. When the markets are not trending, there is no use of SMA or EMA.

 

[ddeepa70]

Have u deleted the files? Can u repost them?

 

[healthraj]

Have u deleted the files? Can u repost them?

It is in the first post of my new thread

http://www.traderji.com/advanced-tr...-days-winning-20-trade-nifty-futures-bac.html

 

[healthraj]

I have posted a new Excel Tool which can be used both as positional and to track the positions for the NIFTY Futures. Please have a look and see if you are interested.

http://www.traderji.com/advanced-tr...-20-trade-nifty-futures-bac-6.html#post707089

 

[healthraj]

So today was typical day for our Trending Strategy. The NIFTY Spot opened at 5163 touched high 5164. NO STOPLOSS. Profit of 45 points at close in NIFTY Spot.

Follow the below steps. End of the Day fill the latest OHLC for today. Yesterday EOD we had only "CLOSE LONG".

But the levels were "SELL BELOW 5177" and "BUY ABOVE 5230"

Today morning with the market opening outside the Range, the "SELL SHORT" signal was triggered and also because of the market opened GAP DOWN.... So if there was no signal the previous day, Check for the signal on the opening hours...