Panch Tattva: Update
- Thread starter birdinfo
- Start date
Dear Khandelwalji
Thanks for the advise. Your worry has proved to be correct. Today market has fallen drastically. Is is advisable to enter at this stage or it is likely to fall further?
Regards
aknigin
Junior Member
Thanks for the advise. Your worry has proved to be correct. Today market has fallen drastically. Is is advisable to enter at this stage or it is likely to fall further?
Regards
aknigin
Junior Member
Market Matrix: US Stock Market, Indian Stock Market, RBI Credit Policy et al
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
For over many weeks I have been asking you to be cautious and you have seen that it has not been without purpose.The markets in US and around the world did break and without a too recent or too apparent reason.They came down after there have been many a factors calling for caution but in a market where the bulls are making money every passing day the gullible investors who are the majority do not have an eye to notice the impending weakness in the markets.
The US markets are trading at 16 PE which has been the average level of PE discounting historically while in 2001 it had gone past the 27 PE where after the from 2002 the bull run ensued and still some people think that the bullishness will continue. Why than the PE level is low even in the face of improved earnings of the latest quarter. Actually the smart money knows it very well that the improved valuations can not be sustained and the earnings will have to come down or at least stop rising and the there has to be a time leg before the outlook will become optimistic again. During this time leg the interest bearing instrument will still give steady returns so why not stop loving shares for up to that time. The lower PE will invite the ordinary investors in to buying till they will have exhausted their resources. Something similar is happening here, in India.
The brave enjoy the world. The investors who put up strongly in face of volatility make money. But the smart ones put up a brave front when the skies start shedding darkness and some light may be seen on the horizon, not when the skies start to become darker and some stars start appearing. They know it is time to call it a day and judge later if it will be a long dark night or a short brighter one.
Some sectors that have a bearing on the entire industrial spectrum are automobile, housing and real estate and are undoubtedly in trouble. The symptoms that show that all is not well with economy are the higher than before interest rates, hardening of rupee, the pseudoism of the government and the regressive nature of taxes that the present govt has so mercilessly imposed on masses. However for India there will still be some saving grace as almost 30% of it has not yet participated in full measure in recent economic advance and may keep the demand for industrial products growing, intervening hick ups notwithstanding.
The latest RBI policy has raised CRR for the banks to 7% (up by .5%) and it does not raise any hope either. The other measure is the removal of Rs.3000 crs on reverse repo and this is in right direction. However , the matters are not clear as how this is going to benefit the economy. I insist that time is ripe for completely allowing the inter-currency conversions.If Indian are smart traders, they will make an opportunity out of it. There is a good scope of the foreign money absorption in India provided it comes tied up for the big infrastructure projects . The North -West corridor is one such project that Japan is initiating. Here is a chance to hasten it up by not putting the unnecessary bureaucratic hurdles in the way. I think mostly it will the business as usual after the policy announcements, it is not supposed to have bearing on any thing i.e. the money inflow, interest rate structure or the money supply in any significant way.
Let us cross our finger but after we have reduced the leverage and exposure.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
For over many weeks I have been asking you to be cautious and you have seen that it has not been without purpose.The markets in US and around the world did break and without a too recent or too apparent reason.They came down after there have been many a factors calling for caution but in a market where the bulls are making money every passing day the gullible investors who are the majority do not have an eye to notice the impending weakness in the markets.
The US markets are trading at 16 PE which has been the average level of PE discounting historically while in 2001 it had gone past the 27 PE where after the from 2002 the bull run ensued and still some people think that the bullishness will continue. Why than the PE level is low even in the face of improved earnings of the latest quarter. Actually the smart money knows it very well that the improved valuations can not be sustained and the earnings will have to come down or at least stop rising and the there has to be a time leg before the outlook will become optimistic again. During this time leg the interest bearing instrument will still give steady returns so why not stop loving shares for up to that time. The lower PE will invite the ordinary investors in to buying till they will have exhausted their resources. Something similar is happening here, in India.
The brave enjoy the world. The investors who put up strongly in face of volatility make money. But the smart ones put up a brave front when the skies start shedding darkness and some light may be seen on the horizon, not when the skies start to become darker and some stars start appearing. They know it is time to call it a day and judge later if it will be a long dark night or a short brighter one.
Some sectors that have a bearing on the entire industrial spectrum are automobile, housing and real estate and are undoubtedly in trouble. The symptoms that show that all is not well with economy are the higher than before interest rates, hardening of rupee, the pseudoism of the government and the regressive nature of taxes that the present govt has so mercilessly imposed on masses. However for India there will still be some saving grace as almost 30% of it has not yet participated in full measure in recent economic advance and may keep the demand for industrial products growing, intervening hick ups notwithstanding.
The latest RBI policy has raised CRR for the banks to 7% (up by .5%) and it does not raise any hope either. The other measure is the removal of Rs.3000 crs on reverse repo and this is in right direction. However , the matters are not clear as how this is going to benefit the economy. I insist that time is ripe for completely allowing the inter-currency conversions.If Indian are smart traders, they will make an opportunity out of it. There is a good scope of the foreign money absorption in India provided it comes tied up for the big infrastructure projects . The North -West corridor is one such project that Japan is initiating. Here is a chance to hasten it up by not putting the unnecessary bureaucratic hurdles in the way. I think mostly it will the business as usual after the policy announcements, it is not supposed to have bearing on any thing i.e. the money inflow, interest rate structure or the money supply in any significant way.
Let us cross our finger but after we have reduced the leverage and exposure.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
Tatamotors, Bel, Vsnl,hindalco, Rcom, Amtekauto
Panch Tattva: Post Result:
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
Please note the Panch Tattva post result points for the following:
TATAMOTORS (01/08/07)@667 gets 939 points and may be bought on declines for long term.
BEL @1635 (01/08/07) gets 681 points and may be sold off.
VSNL @450 (01/08/07) gets 858 points and may be sold off.
HINDALCO @159 (01/08/07) gets 1086 points and mat be bought on declines.
RCOM @530 (01/08/07) gets 1036 points and may be bought on declines.
AMTEKAUTO @157 (01/08/07) gets 1059 points and may be bought on declines.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
Panch Tattva: Post Result:
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
Please note the Panch Tattva post result points for the following:
TATAMOTORS (01/08/07)@667 gets 939 points and may be bought on declines for long term.
BEL @1635 (01/08/07) gets 681 points and may be sold off.
VSNL @450 (01/08/07) gets 858 points and may be sold off.
HINDALCO @159 (01/08/07) gets 1086 points and mat be bought on declines.
RCOM @530 (01/08/07) gets 1036 points and may be bought on declines.
AMTEKAUTO @157 (01/08/07) gets 1059 points and may be bought on declines.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
Market Matrix: My musings on Economy,Food and Telecom Sector
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
I came across a page in my diary dated 20th January 2003 titled 'India comes of Age' and what followed seemed to be of substance and I felt the need to share it with you and the text has been reproduced for your perusal,appreciation and comment:
"The other day under some reference I came across some figures which made me conclude that India, the young nation has come of age. Although the correlation I am going to rely upon is not an standard one or otherwise used in representing any economic phenomenon in ordinary course. However,I am just trying to see some value in this casual observation as intrinsically it represents a meaningful study and when fine tuned may hold a very important vantage point while observing the economics of a developing nation.
Coming to the point, I have to draw attention to the broad segmentation of national economy i.e. the food,the shelter,the communication,the transport,the clothing,the health,the education,the social welfare , the administration, the entertainment,the defense,the electricity and the fuel.Here mining and manufacturing sectors have been left out as they are very general and do not represent the direct consumption. These are in some way or the other are covered in earlier mentioned sectors.
Now coming to the present size of these sectors we know that food is almost Rs 150,000 crs in value terms on a rough reckoning.This is based on 490 gms of availability of food grains per capita per day. This Rs 150,000 crs is not crossed by any other sector mentioned above.The present size of telecommunication is about Rs 55,000 crs. There is possibility of this sector crossing the Rs 1.5 lac crore mark in next five years. When this happens it will be the only sector which has crossed the food sector and therefore what has not been possible through out the economic life of India would turn out to be true.
Let us examine what it would actually represents. So far any fillip that was coming to sectors other than the food sector was coming with a reserved force since when a large chunk of population was still not able to have a square meal a day. It would naturally have pressed the economy to look for means of satisfying such a need first. We have memories of the time when Mr. Shastri had to weigh options in light for providing for defense of nation and to find means to import food grain to avoid the starvation deaths. This had put tremendous pressure on foreign exchange availability for any other worthwhile activity based on outside imports which now we know is almost essential for the meaningful progress as the indigenous research and development effort becomes too costly and at times irrelevant as much has already been done elsewhere and is available for a price.
This process of evaluation and input allocation towards various sectors of economy with accorded priority, made it an unwritten law that no sector of economy would grow beyond the food sector for the present and for the future unless a thresh-hold point was crossed in availability of life sustaining and life enhancing resources. As can only be expected,the demand on available resources of the nation from such priority sector gets to diminish very fast once such a threshold limit is crossed and then the other sectors take to wings and keep crossing the so formidable food sector in value terms one after the other in accordance with the priorities of the society and availability of inputs. In my supposition this must have been the case with all other economies of the world which became developed in their periods of progress.
There is nothing to support this with empirical study at present,however,since expectedly our economy is on the verge of such a march,a careful observation would endorse the point. There is no gainsaying that the food sector also advances albeit at a slower pace, after this milestone. So let us please watch and pray for the eventual crossing of the food sector by the communication sector in decisive terms as there would definitely be a drag and pull to stop it from crossing this limit. A very careful monitoring of the economy is required to let it happen.
The managers of the economy will have to ensure that wastefulness in economy and society is restricted and the corruption and unnecessary curbs on trade and industry are done away with. Needless to say that judicial reforms and maintaining free democratic practices are equally necessary.
So with our fingers crossed,we should wait for the dawn of golden era and when it has really dawned it will be a cause of celebration.A celebration of real kind where the celebrating masses are not living fools' paradise but are citizens of a real paradise."
I hope you excuse me for this unsubstantiated thought but hopefully you will find an important underlying logic when the communication sector is growing in volume terms but the ARPU ( average revenue per user) is not keeping pace.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
I came across a page in my diary dated 20th January 2003 titled 'India comes of Age' and what followed seemed to be of substance and I felt the need to share it with you and the text has been reproduced for your perusal,appreciation and comment:
"The other day under some reference I came across some figures which made me conclude that India, the young nation has come of age. Although the correlation I am going to rely upon is not an standard one or otherwise used in representing any economic phenomenon in ordinary course. However,I am just trying to see some value in this casual observation as intrinsically it represents a meaningful study and when fine tuned may hold a very important vantage point while observing the economics of a developing nation.
Coming to the point, I have to draw attention to the broad segmentation of national economy i.e. the food,the shelter,the communication,the transport,the clothing,the health,the education,the social welfare , the administration, the entertainment,the defense,the electricity and the fuel.Here mining and manufacturing sectors have been left out as they are very general and do not represent the direct consumption. These are in some way or the other are covered in earlier mentioned sectors.
Now coming to the present size of these sectors we know that food is almost Rs 150,000 crs in value terms on a rough reckoning.This is based on 490 gms of availability of food grains per capita per day. This Rs 150,000 crs is not crossed by any other sector mentioned above.The present size of telecommunication is about Rs 55,000 crs. There is possibility of this sector crossing the Rs 1.5 lac crore mark in next five years. When this happens it will be the only sector which has crossed the food sector and therefore what has not been possible through out the economic life of India would turn out to be true.
Let us examine what it would actually represents. So far any fillip that was coming to sectors other than the food sector was coming with a reserved force since when a large chunk of population was still not able to have a square meal a day. It would naturally have pressed the economy to look for means of satisfying such a need first. We have memories of the time when Mr. Shastri had to weigh options in light for providing for defense of nation and to find means to import food grain to avoid the starvation deaths. This had put tremendous pressure on foreign exchange availability for any other worthwhile activity based on outside imports which now we know is almost essential for the meaningful progress as the indigenous research and development effort becomes too costly and at times irrelevant as much has already been done elsewhere and is available for a price.
This process of evaluation and input allocation towards various sectors of economy with accorded priority, made it an unwritten law that no sector of economy would grow beyond the food sector for the present and for the future unless a thresh-hold point was crossed in availability of life sustaining and life enhancing resources. As can only be expected,the demand on available resources of the nation from such priority sector gets to diminish very fast once such a threshold limit is crossed and then the other sectors take to wings and keep crossing the so formidable food sector in value terms one after the other in accordance with the priorities of the society and availability of inputs. In my supposition this must have been the case with all other economies of the world which became developed in their periods of progress.
There is nothing to support this with empirical study at present,however,since expectedly our economy is on the verge of such a march,a careful observation would endorse the point. There is no gainsaying that the food sector also advances albeit at a slower pace, after this milestone. So let us please watch and pray for the eventual crossing of the food sector by the communication sector in decisive terms as there would definitely be a drag and pull to stop it from crossing this limit. A very careful monitoring of the economy is required to let it happen.
The managers of the economy will have to ensure that wastefulness in economy and society is restricted and the corruption and unnecessary curbs on trade and industry are done away with. Needless to say that judicial reforms and maintaining free democratic practices are equally necessary.
So with our fingers crossed,we should wait for the dawn of golden era and when it has really dawned it will be a cause of celebration.A celebration of real kind where the celebrating masses are not living fools' paradise but are citizens of a real paradise."
I hope you excuse me for this unsubstantiated thought but hopefully you will find an important underlying logic when the communication sector is growing in volume terms but the ARPU ( average revenue per user) is not keeping pace.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
Market Matrix: Today marks sixty years of Indian Independence August 15th, 2007
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
It a cause of celebration for any body today who is living in India or loves India. The only painful fact is that the bargain has not been beneficial from one angle. This one angle is that while the price paid for it was in terms of lives and death of the honest, unassuming and courageous Indians, some of whom were very intelligent, of high lineage, of wealthy backgrounds, having far sight and were educated, they sacrificed without rewards in mind and with sole concern for the people of the nation and prestige of the nation. We were always a nation and regained our sovereignty through their efforts. The painful fact is that the people have cornered the exploits of freedom who are simply in contrast with what the freedom fighters were and what they stood for. In this way, the nation paid a heavier price and the bargain became not profitable in some way.
The democracy had a flying start and seemingly became powerless eventually to throw up a universally loved leader to take the reigns of government. The party platforms are denied for the general discussions on issues and the ultimate platform that the parliament is supposed to be for this purpose, is failing too. However, at the same time there is one saving grace there. Our leaders now at least represent the small, otherwise feeble voices, which may or may not have nation wide concerns. Such leaders therefore do not have the extended appeal and following. The major concern and issue in pre-independent India was the independence itself. This was due to this that the national leaders abounded. Since then, we have demonstrated beyond doubt our oneness and care for freedom in times of national crises, what ever may have been the hue of political establishment.
Afterwards, naturally local matters started weighing heavily in the minds of population/groups. The pettiness of causes and the need of being heard have made the atmosphere chaotic and we as a nation will have to put up with it for some more years may be for many more decades. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Bhutto wrote in his book ‘Friends not Masters’ that the political chaos in India has kept it united while the totalitarianism saw the dismemberment of Pakistan. We need not be shy for this weakness of ours. Only thing is that at the national level it should not have been so had the governance at state and at the other lower level not been influenced by the rowdy and the people with unlawful means. This in my opinion would correct soon if the law enforcing measures are not allowed to be diluted by the central power and any breakdown in this respect is taken very seriously by the central authorities. The restoration of the breached mechanism should be done with impersonal firmness by the system. This achieved, we will emerge as a nation of no parallel. We have richness of culture, abounding resources, unsurpassed talent and youthful population. Our living habits do not ask for the mindless exploitation of natural resources and we have good saving habits. We should rule the world once again not in the ways of Sikander but in the ways of Buddha.
This is an era of commerce and industry. Unless I evaluate the economic progress of India over these sixty years, the story will remain half told. Our economic progress in by no means ordinary in independent years. We have progressed in the field of education, industry, infrastructure, basic research and most of all in services sector. The other area where we have not lagged far behind is the defense sector, courtesy to Chinese and Pakistani hostility towards India simply to slight its secularism, democracy and progress. The complacence never pays. We should remain on our toes to defend the boundaries, the economic independence and the democratic ways with all our might. Here again, I have something to say which makes us look within. We have built whatever on western lines. We built our political system on British lines; we only expended our Railways largely depending on the basic infrastructure of the British times. The judicial system largely remains British with host of difficult to interpret laws passed since then. We have even made it almost non-functional for the masses in practical terms. We are continuously refusing to take notice and this may result in something not likable at all. Our industrial expansion is now mostly in private hands but the atmosphere is suffering. We have foolishly allowed the growth in number of cars on the road without caring for better alternatives and we live in completely polluted and congested cities. Our neglect of public health services is of criminal proportions. Our civil infrastructure is woefully inadequate. We have stopped caring for the poor masses in the way we should do. In short, we as a nation are not giving due weight to the opinion of our own thinkers and philosophers and look towards west for everything. Let us rise above our political gamesmanship and find solid solution for the serious afflictions. Let every voter cast the vote without narrow considerations and only with concern for the nation.
Salute you all on this special occasion.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
It a cause of celebration for any body today who is living in India or loves India. The only painful fact is that the bargain has not been beneficial from one angle. This one angle is that while the price paid for it was in terms of lives and death of the honest, unassuming and courageous Indians, some of whom were very intelligent, of high lineage, of wealthy backgrounds, having far sight and were educated, they sacrificed without rewards in mind and with sole concern for the people of the nation and prestige of the nation. We were always a nation and regained our sovereignty through their efforts. The painful fact is that the people have cornered the exploits of freedom who are simply in contrast with what the freedom fighters were and what they stood for. In this way, the nation paid a heavier price and the bargain became not profitable in some way.
The democracy had a flying start and seemingly became powerless eventually to throw up a universally loved leader to take the reigns of government. The party platforms are denied for the general discussions on issues and the ultimate platform that the parliament is supposed to be for this purpose, is failing too. However, at the same time there is one saving grace there. Our leaders now at least represent the small, otherwise feeble voices, which may or may not have nation wide concerns. Such leaders therefore do not have the extended appeal and following. The major concern and issue in pre-independent India was the independence itself. This was due to this that the national leaders abounded. Since then, we have demonstrated beyond doubt our oneness and care for freedom in times of national crises, what ever may have been the hue of political establishment.
Afterwards, naturally local matters started weighing heavily in the minds of population/groups. The pettiness of causes and the need of being heard have made the atmosphere chaotic and we as a nation will have to put up with it for some more years may be for many more decades. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Bhutto wrote in his book ‘Friends not Masters’ that the political chaos in India has kept it united while the totalitarianism saw the dismemberment of Pakistan. We need not be shy for this weakness of ours. Only thing is that at the national level it should not have been so had the governance at state and at the other lower level not been influenced by the rowdy and the people with unlawful means. This in my opinion would correct soon if the law enforcing measures are not allowed to be diluted by the central power and any breakdown in this respect is taken very seriously by the central authorities. The restoration of the breached mechanism should be done with impersonal firmness by the system. This achieved, we will emerge as a nation of no parallel. We have richness of culture, abounding resources, unsurpassed talent and youthful population. Our living habits do not ask for the mindless exploitation of natural resources and we have good saving habits. We should rule the world once again not in the ways of Sikander but in the ways of Buddha.
This is an era of commerce and industry. Unless I evaluate the economic progress of India over these sixty years, the story will remain half told. Our economic progress in by no means ordinary in independent years. We have progressed in the field of education, industry, infrastructure, basic research and most of all in services sector. The other area where we have not lagged far behind is the defense sector, courtesy to Chinese and Pakistani hostility towards India simply to slight its secularism, democracy and progress. The complacence never pays. We should remain on our toes to defend the boundaries, the economic independence and the democratic ways with all our might. Here again, I have something to say which makes us look within. We have built whatever on western lines. We built our political system on British lines; we only expended our Railways largely depending on the basic infrastructure of the British times. The judicial system largely remains British with host of difficult to interpret laws passed since then. We have even made it almost non-functional for the masses in practical terms. We are continuously refusing to take notice and this may result in something not likable at all. Our industrial expansion is now mostly in private hands but the atmosphere is suffering. We have foolishly allowed the growth in number of cars on the road without caring for better alternatives and we live in completely polluted and congested cities. Our neglect of public health services is of criminal proportions. Our civil infrastructure is woefully inadequate. We have stopped caring for the poor masses in the way we should do. In short, we as a nation are not giving due weight to the opinion of our own thinkers and philosophers and look towards west for everything. Let us rise above our political gamesmanship and find solid solution for the serious afflictions. Let every voter cast the vote without narrow considerations and only with concern for the nation.
Salute you all on this special occasion.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
BIRDINFO Stock Rx
We judge relative value of quoted stocks to their current prices .The system 'Panch Tattva Teknik' ascribes points to five distinct assessable parameters of a company. It is like the way Indian Philosophy takes the existence in the material world consisting of five basic elements (Tattvas). The ascribed points are summed up and at 1000 points the relative strength is value neutral while deviation from 1000 points is value increasing or reducing.
TORNTPOWER - Sell @ 84 on 16 Aug 2007
TORNTPOWER @ 84 (16/08/07) gets 825 post result Panch Tattva points and you were advised for purchase on 7 Aug 07 (@68) and it is now advised that you should get out this now.
NATIONALUM - Buy @ 255 on 14 Aug 2007
NATIONALUM @ 255 (14/08/07) gets 1225 post result Panch Tattva points and may be bought today itself as the opening is supposed to be lower for the market as a whole as DOW has lost good three hundred points and reflection on Indian markets can definitely not be positive.
GHCL - Buy < 119 on 14 Aug 2007
GHCL @119 (14/08/07) gets 998 post result Panch Tattva points and you should get ready to pick it up on declines for up to the next result.
BLBLIMITED @20 (13/08/07) gets 896 points and may not be bought.
JBFIND @156 (13/08/07) gets 1132 points and may be bought and book profits along the way.
HCLTECH @317 (13/08/07) gets 968 points and may be bought on declines.
SOBHA @796 (13/08/07) gets 827 points and may not be bought.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
We judge relative value of quoted stocks to their current prices .The system 'Panch Tattva Teknik' ascribes points to five distinct assessable parameters of a company. It is like the way Indian Philosophy takes the existence in the material world consisting of five basic elements (Tattvas). The ascribed points are summed up and at 1000 points the relative strength is value neutral while deviation from 1000 points is value increasing or reducing.
TORNTPOWER - Sell @ 84 on 16 Aug 2007
TORNTPOWER @ 84 (16/08/07) gets 825 post result Panch Tattva points and you were advised for purchase on 7 Aug 07 (@68) and it is now advised that you should get out this now.
NATIONALUM - Buy @ 255 on 14 Aug 2007
NATIONALUM @ 255 (14/08/07) gets 1225 post result Panch Tattva points and may be bought today itself as the opening is supposed to be lower for the market as a whole as DOW has lost good three hundred points and reflection on Indian markets can definitely not be positive.
GHCL - Buy < 119 on 14 Aug 2007
GHCL @119 (14/08/07) gets 998 post result Panch Tattva points and you should get ready to pick it up on declines for up to the next result.
BLBLIMITED @20 (13/08/07) gets 896 points and may not be bought.
JBFIND @156 (13/08/07) gets 1132 points and may be bought and book profits along the way.
HCLTECH @317 (13/08/07) gets 968 points and may be bought on declines.
SOBHA @796 (13/08/07) gets 827 points and may not be bought.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
Market Matrix: Nifty after a record up-move for consecutive six trading days
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
Some thing of extra-ordinary nature happened last week in the markets in India. Nifty ended the week at 4464 points after a record up-move for consecutive six trading days. This is an unusual phenomenon specially when there is hardly any significant news enabling the move in this way. There is therefore a question in every mind capable of reasoning that what actually may have prompted it. It may be that some organised players have caught some other set of organised bears on the wrong foot and are exploiting the situation with a limited positive of the US Fed coming forward to contain the damage on account of sub-prime crisis on the international front and the patch up with the left on nuke issue by the govt. by keeping the deal non-operational for some time and pending some petty formality. Curious are ways of the politicians. At times, it is brinkmanship for effect and than rationalisation of the situation to let the business go on usually. Any way the tremendous run now is being called to be strengthened for the performance on the GDP front by the Indian economy in the last quarter which is declared to have maintained growth at 9.3% (against 9.4% for 06-07) and agricultural growth at 3.8% ( against 2.8% in June 06 qtr). I have my skepticism in place and I am reading something else than what is apparent, a contrarian at present.
The corporates in India may start raising funds through domestic issues of bonds. The ECB route is slightly not preferable now due to RBIs restriction on end use. The cost of overseas borrowing comes to 7.63%/8.20% (LIBOR is at 5.43%) and with the added risk of currency fluctuation.
Parsvnath Developers is trying for telecom license called 'unified access services' and is the seventh in the queue. May be since after the raising of funds in IPO they are finding it not fit enough to deploy funds in the realty business now and have sought another sector for the investible funds. This is one practice of the Indian entrepreneurs that keeps the investor jittery. When the going is good the funds are raised inspite of the times ahead not good enough and the investments are made regardless of was said in the prospectus. I am not sure of this in this particular case but it has usually been the case in India.
Mayawati has asked the centre to provide Rs. 2000 crs of interest free loans to UP sugar mills. What a mockery of market economy norms. The politician will on one hand keep the cane pricing in his hand and make the industry suffer and ask for succor all at the cost of honest tax paying people of the country. What is surprising that the industry itself does not mind the whole scheme of things as it is able to get relief at the end of cycle and in the aftermath questions about the managerial wrong doings in times of health are just forgotten. So, every body i.e. the politician, the farmer and the mill owners are happy at the cost of honest taxpayers. I do hope the reasonable Mr. Man Mohan Singh would want to punish those who do not want to save for rainy day and expend capacity out of funds required to be kept for saving the interest which is an hefty outgo in case of sugar industry on account of need to carry over stocks. Do the complexity of a business call for largess, which the sugar mill owners always are happy to demand and also get.
The RBI annual report states that rising protectionist measures, firmer oil prices, persisting global imbalances, adjustment in US due to housing slow down and potential shift in market sentiment pose down side risk to the global economy. The RBI has clearly pointed at the difficult times ahead. We are free to take notice or just ignore it in the heat of the moment.
Due to sub prime crisis, the PE players have now edge over the negotiating table and are hopeful of getting favourable deals due to companies finding hard to borrow abroad and issue paper. The valuations should get corrected for the same login in case of listed companies.
I have a proposal to make with regard to the trading on the bourses. Our markets are not deep enough and get swayed with much less trading volume and injection of funds or withdrawal of funds. SEBI should allow putting in orders with 30 days validity without the power to amend such order and the circuit filter mechanism should be done away with. The scrips that have less than a particular ratio of the outstanding shares of the company as the pending 30-day validity orders should be dealt only on spot basis. This should be the measure by which to distinguish the group of companies form the liquidity point of view. This order book should be viewable by all and it should be specified if the order is by the jobber/broker or a client. This will give depth to market and those who are able to assess the bottom price and top price for a company would buy or sell at those extreme rates and would give direction to market. Since the circuit filters would not be in place, the putting of such orders will be resorted to by those who would want to gain in one-side rushes. The margin requirement however should be entirely met at the time of the order placement and should be higher than otherwise. My thanks to the one who may pass this on to SEBI for consideration.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
By krsna Khandelwal - A veteran market analyst
Friends,
Some thing of extra-ordinary nature happened last week in the markets in India. Nifty ended the week at 4464 points after a record up-move for consecutive six trading days. This is an unusual phenomenon specially when there is hardly any significant news enabling the move in this way. There is therefore a question in every mind capable of reasoning that what actually may have prompted it. It may be that some organised players have caught some other set of organised bears on the wrong foot and are exploiting the situation with a limited positive of the US Fed coming forward to contain the damage on account of sub-prime crisis on the international front and the patch up with the left on nuke issue by the govt. by keeping the deal non-operational for some time and pending some petty formality. Curious are ways of the politicians. At times, it is brinkmanship for effect and than rationalisation of the situation to let the business go on usually. Any way the tremendous run now is being called to be strengthened for the performance on the GDP front by the Indian economy in the last quarter which is declared to have maintained growth at 9.3% (against 9.4% for 06-07) and agricultural growth at 3.8% ( against 2.8% in June 06 qtr). I have my skepticism in place and I am reading something else than what is apparent, a contrarian at present.
The corporates in India may start raising funds through domestic issues of bonds. The ECB route is slightly not preferable now due to RBIs restriction on end use. The cost of overseas borrowing comes to 7.63%/8.20% (LIBOR is at 5.43%) and with the added risk of currency fluctuation.
Parsvnath Developers is trying for telecom license called 'unified access services' and is the seventh in the queue. May be since after the raising of funds in IPO they are finding it not fit enough to deploy funds in the realty business now and have sought another sector for the investible funds. This is one practice of the Indian entrepreneurs that keeps the investor jittery. When the going is good the funds are raised inspite of the times ahead not good enough and the investments are made regardless of was said in the prospectus. I am not sure of this in this particular case but it has usually been the case in India.
Mayawati has asked the centre to provide Rs. 2000 crs of interest free loans to UP sugar mills. What a mockery of market economy norms. The politician will on one hand keep the cane pricing in his hand and make the industry suffer and ask for succor all at the cost of honest tax paying people of the country. What is surprising that the industry itself does not mind the whole scheme of things as it is able to get relief at the end of cycle and in the aftermath questions about the managerial wrong doings in times of health are just forgotten. So, every body i.e. the politician, the farmer and the mill owners are happy at the cost of honest taxpayers. I do hope the reasonable Mr. Man Mohan Singh would want to punish those who do not want to save for rainy day and expend capacity out of funds required to be kept for saving the interest which is an hefty outgo in case of sugar industry on account of need to carry over stocks. Do the complexity of a business call for largess, which the sugar mill owners always are happy to demand and also get.
The RBI annual report states that rising protectionist measures, firmer oil prices, persisting global imbalances, adjustment in US due to housing slow down and potential shift in market sentiment pose down side risk to the global economy. The RBI has clearly pointed at the difficult times ahead. We are free to take notice or just ignore it in the heat of the moment.
Due to sub prime crisis, the PE players have now edge over the negotiating table and are hopeful of getting favourable deals due to companies finding hard to borrow abroad and issue paper. The valuations should get corrected for the same login in case of listed companies.
I have a proposal to make with regard to the trading on the bourses. Our markets are not deep enough and get swayed with much less trading volume and injection of funds or withdrawal of funds. SEBI should allow putting in orders with 30 days validity without the power to amend such order and the circuit filter mechanism should be done away with. The scrips that have less than a particular ratio of the outstanding shares of the company as the pending 30-day validity orders should be dealt only on spot basis. This should be the measure by which to distinguish the group of companies form the liquidity point of view. This order book should be viewable by all and it should be specified if the order is by the jobber/broker or a client. This will give depth to market and those who are able to assess the bottom price and top price for a company would buy or sell at those extreme rates and would give direction to market. Since the circuit filters would not be in place, the putting of such orders will be resorted to by those who would want to gain in one-side rushes. The margin requirement however should be entirely met at the time of the order placement and should be higher than otherwise. My thanks to the one who may pass this on to SEBI for consideration.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
Nifty estimates derived from Gunn Theory
Gunn Root Root Date Elliot Open High Low Close
Estimate--+1.95---Wave
3608.55 60.07 62.02 16-Mar-07 0 3639.35 3683.6 3573.85 3608.55
3846.63 62.02 63.97 22-Mar-07 1 3764.5 3881 3764.5 3875.9
4092.32 63.97 65.92 16-Apr-07 2 3920.5 4016.8 3920.5 4013.35
4345.61 65.92 67.87 01-Jun-07 3 4296.05 4325.8 4288.55 4297.05
4606.50 67.87 69.82 23-Jul-07 4 4564.25 4628.45 4547.2 4619.35
4875.00 69.82 71.77 21-Sep-07 5 4752.95 4855.7 4733.7 4837.55
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
Gunn Root Root Date Elliot Open High Low Close
Estimate--+1.95---Wave
3608.55 60.07 62.02 16-Mar-07 0 3639.35 3683.6 3573.85 3608.55
3846.63 62.02 63.97 22-Mar-07 1 3764.5 3881 3764.5 3875.9
4092.32 63.97 65.92 16-Apr-07 2 3920.5 4016.8 3920.5 4013.35
4345.61 65.92 67.87 01-Jun-07 3 4296.05 4325.8 4288.55 4297.05
4606.50 67.87 69.82 23-Jul-07 4 4564.25 4628.45 4547.2 4619.35
4875.00 69.82 71.77 21-Sep-07 5 4752.95 4855.7 4733.7 4837.55
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx - A prescription for stock market
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