Once again Turtle Soup ..

[rkkarnani]

todays explored result

subroto

sr114, As I dont use Amibroker hence my query/comments may be too elementary. Saw the exploration results. What exactly do they represent ? I have understood this is a List of Stocks that have made 20 Days Low Today( on the day of Exploration) !
Can you use a filter in your exploration for the traded quantity (Volume)? Just checked on a random stock from this exploration result that I felt might have been traded too thinly : Pilani Investment : Just 609 shares have been traded !!!
If I remember correctly then as per the rules discussed in earlier thread, this exploration result can be used in TS +1 only. (I Do Not have much clarity on TS+1 trading ) In TS we trade it on the day the previous 20 period low, min 4 sessions earlier is breached.
Saw HDFC bank chart, money could have been made in it on 30th Jan it seems.
Trying to Post a explanatory chart :

 

[rkkarnani]

Anup, what is there to explain. You have already posted the method in very simple words. Too many explanations will only spoil the original essence.......

pakatil, Anup did post the method in simple words, but an explanation with a Chart can be really useful.
Why dont you attempt to Explain why Biocon is a possible candidate, because I felt it is not ! No offence meant, but in either case we will get to learn a bit more. If you are correct, your lesson is 'revised' and my errors of thinking rectified!

 

[rkkarnani]

possible candidates also ---


my 1st post in this thread and about this strategy also. i don't know my observations are fully correct or not?
if not then please tell me where i am wrong.

Burai123, How about posting along with the charts why you think its TS candidate along with the levels to be traded.
I am trying to incorporate the levels to my best ability.

BHEL : It made a previous 20 period Lowest Low at 222 on 17th Jan. On 30 th Jan BHEL breached this LL of 222 made 4 or more sessions earlier. On 30th our action would have been to go long above 222+ticks only after 22 was broken on the down side. Assuming that after breaking the previous 20 days low of 222, BHEL did not trigger a Buy. It closed at 221.75
Today 31st Jan 2013, Our action would be to go long above 222+ ticks, with SL below 220.60 (30th Jan low) less ticks !
I have no idea what should be done if 220.60 less ticks is breached before the long is triggered !

HDFC Bank : Please refer to my earlier post for this stock.

GAIL : It made a LL of 20 period at 346.75 on 24 Jan. This low was breached on 30th Jan , and a Long was not triggered. On 31st Jan we can go long above 346.75+ticks with 338.20 less ticks as SL (338.20 is 30th Jan Low)

SBI : SBI made a 20 period Lowest Low at 2423 on 17 Jan 2013. 30th Jan low is 2426.60 ! The stock must be on our radars for 31st Jan. We want the stock to 1st breach the 2423 level and then move above 2423+ticks, where we go long with the days low less ticks(made till then as SL).

Keeping my fingers crossed that my understanding is correct and my post does not lead to any confusion or wrong action.

 

[pakatil]

Thank you RKK.

 

[jamit_05]

BHEL : It made a previous 20 period Lowest Low at 222 on 17th Jan. On 30 th Jan BHEL breached this LL of 222 made 4 or more sessions earlier. On 30th our action would have been to go long above 222+ticks only after 22 was broken on the down side. Assuming that after breaking the previous 20 days low of 222, BHEL did not trigger a Buy. It closed at 221.75
Today 31st Jan 2013, Our action would be to go long above 222+ ticks, with SL below 220.60 (30th Jan low) less ticks !
I have no idea what should be done if 220.60 less ticks is breached before the long is triggered !

I will attempt to answer the Bhel query.

222.25 was the 20 day low of BSE.

It was breached on 30th. Since we are working EOD explorations, we will call this a trigger to be used the next day (plus one).

Now our entry filter is 222.25+0.85 i.e. 223.10
If this level is traded today we will go long. with a SL of 220.95

So our risk is of 223.10 - 220.95 = 2.15;

If 223.10 is not touched after touching 222.25 then it is a No-trade.

Additional Note:

Turtle Soup rules, as expected, is only an entry method. And one with good logic. But, this is not sufficient to trade profitably.

To make it a complete trading system one will have to design the exit method also. But rarely anyone shares his own exit method. They will explain the setup, MM, SL but never the profit taking part.

One would be better off not blindly taking trades based on the freely available rules. Design an exit method also.

To do that you will have to study how various scrips behave after entry. In the next post will try and publish my observations.

regards

 

[jamit_05]

Exit Strategy for Turtle Soup

It is observed that after entry only a few trades go very high. Sure, some of them do, but most of them touch Daily e15 and fizz out.

So, we will use the difference between Entry price and Daily E15 as our entry filter. Let me explain.

In the above BHEL example, our risk is 2.15 points. So if Daily E15 is not at least two times the distance we skip the trade.

To further use this information, let us exit half the position at Daily E15. Since, it is 2R the distance at least, when price touches DE15 we are risk free!

And I will exit the rest at the daily pivot or EOD of a big bar.

I am sure as I trade this method the exit method will only evolve.

Rgards.

 

[rkkarnani]

I will attempt to answer the Bhel query.

222.25 was the 20 day low of BSE.

It was breached on 30th. Since we are working EOD explorations, we will call this a trigger to be used the next day (plus one).

Now our entry filter is 222.25+0.85 i.e. 223.10
If this level is traded today we will go long. with a SL of 220.95

So our risk is of 223.10 - 220.95 = 2.15;

If 223.10 is not touched after touching 222.25 then it is a No-trade.

Additional Note:

Turtle Soup rules, as expected, is only an entry method. And one with good logic. But, this is not sufficient to trade profitably.

To make it a complete trading system one will have to design the exit method also. But rarely anyone shares his own exit method. They will explain the setup, MM, SL but never the profit taking part.

One would be better off not blindly taking trades based on the freely available rules. Design an exit method also.

To do that you will have to study how various scrips behave after entry. In the next post will try and publish my observations.

regards

Thanks for this detailed view on BHEL ! Though it wasnt a query but explanation from my side. I think we are saying the same thing.
BTW, how do we define the "ticks" to be added? How did you arrive at 0.85?


I agree 100% with your views on Profit booking levels etc.


You have mentioned a SL of 220.95 , this must be the value arrived at by reducing the Low of 30th Jan by a few ticks. By what amount was the Low reduced to arrive at 220.95 As I dont have BSE data, hence please confirm.
Now an important query : If this level of 220.95 is breached before the Long trigger level of 223.10 Is the Long trade still on?

 

[jamit_05]

Now an important query : If this level of 220.95 is breached before the Long trigger level of 223.10 Is the Long trade still on?

Yes the trade is still on. As long as we get the long the very NEXT DAY. We want immediate failure of the pivot. Only thing that will change is that the SL will be lower...

About the levels, approx 0.25% has been used for entry filter and 0.05 paisa below the round figure for SL. To each his own.

This method works very well in sideways trends and bombs in strong trends. Since markets are only 20% of the times trending, turtle soup traders should do well.

 

[jamit_05]

Have downloaded the bhavcopies for the past two months. Now have the DB for NSE ready. Now, if someone could give a working version of Exploration and Turtle AFL testing phase could start.

Thanks.

 

[prabhsingh]

Have downloaded the bhavcopies for the past two months. Now have the DB for NSE ready. Now, if someone could give a working version of Exploration and Turtle AFL testing phase could start.

Thanks.

SR has already given that.Just go to initial pages,you will able to locate that.