Nifty to retest 2300-2250

[sudoku1]

Kuck hum ko bhi bata dena jub aap ke chert kuch short or long signel de .becouse i have only cnbc bakews .

http://blog.stocktwits.com/post/75051422/boycott-cnbc-day-on-tuesday-february-3

 

[prahlad1981]

I don't say anything !

If you are a trader I thought you might be interested in the short-term trend. Of course, I said that long-term bear-market may be intact (who knows). But in case of a breakout above 2842, NIFTY has it in it to reach at least 3500 ...

Remember, "every share purchased has to be sold, and every short-sale has to be covered". So neither bull-market can go only up, nor bear-market will go only down. There is always a zig-zag movement within the primary trend in each timeframe.

 

[prahlad1981]

What is the technical basis for such a statement ?

I do not understand how crossing 2842 raises the possibility of crossing at least 3500 !!

This is a meaningless statement.

Hi,

THis is not a meaning-less statement. 2842 is the approximate level where the upper trend-line of the triangle is broken. Don't take the absolute level. You might be sure its broken this trendline, by giving it varying degrees of freedom. For example you might take 2842 + 25% of its ATR (Average True Range).

Refer to this EOD chart:
http://www.traderji.com/attachments/technical-analysis/11035d1233734111-nifty-retest-2300-2250-nifty.gif


I was referring to the upper trendline that is about 3500 as the target which might be achieved after crossing this.

 

[prahlad1981]

also remember in today's world of futures & options the line "ever share...covered" has no meaning, buyer or seller can let it expire at month end, no need to cover/sell, right

A Future is an instrument, the value of which is derived from the shares. If a Future of 100 shares expire, then the Future has expired, not the share. Thus, expiry in Derivaties-segment won't have any effect on Cash-segment and its demand/supply.
The Cash-segment works entirely on delivery of the shares. Suppose XYZ company has a float of 1,00,000 shares. Someone must be owning these 1,00,000 shares. When many of them sell on delivery (or new players short-sell it by borrowing from them), the price plummets. On the other hand, when many of them buy (or those who have borrowed buy back to cover them), price moves up.
Now the derivatives segment is totally different market, where virtual instruments (called futures and options) are created which are based on the value of each of these 1,000,00 shares. The Futures may expire or rolled-over. But the Future's value is derived from shares, and not vice-versa.

The statement is still valid today, as it was several years ago.

 

[shallspc]

hello friends, my price analysis says nifty will retest 2300 to 2250. what you say? please contribute your valuable information.
i shorted nifty ,good quantities. will short remaining on rise. watch out for 2870. strong kick ass resistance lol
looking forward frm u guys , good luck shreya

i feel too

 

[prahlad1981]

i feel too

No Resistance is for ever. In fact more the price tries to test a support/resistance, more of its power is consumed as weak hands go out of the market. Also, the more it tries to test a resistance, the more important it becomes. If the said level is breached to the Upside in the coming few days, NIFTY won't test 2250 at least until April/May 2009. That is of course presuming that the bear-market remains intact, which is already more than a year old.

 

[prahlad1981]

i feel too

where are the eternal-bears disappeared now...! please come and say something.

cheers

 

[prasadam]

where are the eternal-bears disappeared now...! please come and say something.

cheers

Jee huzur.

Saithan Haazir hai.

Let it first cross 2920 and then 3000. Then only we can think of an untrend confused

In the mean while, just go through this thread, http://www.traderji.com/equities/25846-pivot-triangle-breakout-nifty.html

where Prabhujeet has said

Though the charts you have shown so clear breakout but we have to be cautious for 2 warning signals.

1. If the Breakout is true then the next or atmost 4 th bar should be a strong Upmove bar if not than warning lights should be put on

2. It is very important that we dont break the Low of bar that you have shown as breakout bar if it happens than whole Pattern will prove to be False Breakout

and still go further in that thread and find out if the breakout fails, what may happen.

How ever at present I am neutral as Nifty is trading in the range 2650-2850. I
will go for positional trade after the breakout/breakdown of the range, with confirmation from a big upmove/downmove bar.

feel free to call me back.

 

[prahlad1981]

Jee huzur.

Saithan Haazir hai.

Let it first cross 2920 and then 3000. Then only we can think of an untrend confused

In the mean while, just go through this thread, http://www.traderji.com/equities/25846-pivot-triangle-breakout-nifty.html

where Prabhujeet has said



and still go further in that thread and find out if the breakout fails, what may happen.

How ever at present I am neutral as Nifty is trading in the range 2650-2850. I
will go for positional trade after the breakout/breakdown of the range, with confirmation from a big upmove/downmove bar.

feel free to call me back.

yup. i saw that thread. however, you have to keep changing your market opinion as price action changes! in that instance, breakout failed in the first week of january, but nor were the october lows broken. we are presently on the edge of the triangle and a break-out is imminent. it could be either upside or downside, only future will tell that. however, i have a feeling we won't have to wait for long. 3 to 4 days max.

 

[prahlad1981]

Jee huzur.

Saithan Haazir hai.

Liked your analogy (SHAITAN=BEAR) .
But by the same analogy, at the end of each war, victory is of GOD, not SHAITAN. Always remember that...

LONG LIVE THE BULLS ...!