Nifty to retest 2300-2250

[AW10]

Many of your questions will be answered if you view the current situation from Market Cycle analysis perspective. Market has many cycles effective at any moment. When big wave/cycle is going up, any downmove of the smaller cycle will get supported by big cycle and hence those falls will be limited in size.
At the same time, any upmove of small wave will get extra push from big wave and will get extended.
Exact reverse happens when the big wave is going down. That is why you can't compare current mkt situation to 2006/07 when bigger wave was going up.

These market cycles are dependent on factors from economy and we are in really bad economical shape. IMO, we can get idea about such market cycles from history but I will discount that too.. because current global economy is very different. We did not have derivatives and other advance intermaket instruments back then in 1929, 1987 etc.
Global markets were not so smoothly connected like they are today.. and we never had fund managers sitting in US / UK playing the significant part of daily marketcap of Indian, Japanese, Asian market like they are doing today.

So, IMO, bigger picture is still bearish.. From trading perspective, it makes no difference to me because I can find trades as per my system. Of course, many people don't have system to play in bearish market so they find it difficult to trade bearish market. I don't care how low the market is going to go.. because I will be in or out of my trade based on the signal given by system. So if market has stopped going down, the charts will tell me that. No hurry and Enjoy the ride.

Happy Trading

 

[tomdickpary]

Kuck hum ko bhi bata dena jub aap ke chert kuch short or long signel de .becouse i have only cnbc bakews .

 

[samsrikvsk]

Though the markets outlook is weak nifty will not go beyond 2450 - 2500.
nearing expiration of next derivative contracts it should rally a little bit,getting supports around 2450 - 2500 .

 

[SriVijay]

Many of your questions will be answered if you view the current situation from Market Cycle analysis perspective. Market has many cycles effective at any moment. When big wave/cycle is going up, any downmove of the smaller cycle will get supported by big cycle and hence those falls will be limited in size.
At the same time, any upmove of small wave will get extra push from big wave and will get extended.
Exact reverse happens when the big wave is going down. That is why you can't compare current mkt situation to 2006/07 when bigger wave was going up.

These market cycles are dependent on factors from economy and we are in really bad economical shape. IMO, we can get idea about such market cycles from history but I will discount that too.. because current global economy is very different. We did not have derivatives and other advance intermaket instruments back then in 1929, 1987 etc.
Global markets were not so smoothly connected like they are today.. and we never had fund managers sitting in US / UK playing the significant part of daily marketcap of Indian, Japanese, Asian market like they are doing today.

So, IMO, bigger picture is still bearish.. From trading perspective, it makes no difference to me because I can find trades as per my system. Of course, many people don't have system to play in bearish market so they find it difficult to trade bearish market. I don't care how low the market is going to go.. because I will be in or out of my trade based on the signal given by system. So if market has stopped going down, the charts will tell me that. No hurry and Enjoy the ride.

Happy Trading

These market cycles are dependent on factors from economy and we are in really bad economical shape. IMO, we can get idea about such market cycles from history but I will discount that too.. because current global economy is very different. We did not have derivatives and other advance intermaket instruments back then in 1929, 1987 etc.
Global markets were not so smoothly connected like they are today.. and we never had fund managers sitting in US / UK playing the significant part of daily marketcap of Indian, Japanese, Asian market like they are doing today

AWESOME Mr.AW10
Thank You

Regards
Vijayakumar

 

[klo]

see the chart of Nikkei and u will find urself that there is no good reason why nifty should not go to 500 levels.Dow johns during a secular bearmarket lost almost 90% of its value falling straightly from 381 all the way down to 40.
http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/4493/25600211dc7.png

Dear Rajath,

Pls post historical bse & nse eod data from the start in metastock format.

 

[aiyaz]

Nifty will must touch 2079 this year.It is my technical analysis.
I am not sure it may be in this quarter or next quarter.
But the level 2079 will must come this year.

 

[eagle27]

Unlikely.Fr bears to rejoice nifty nds to close belw 2795.
Can hedge yr short pos. by buying nifty ce 2900 & 3000.

 

[prahlad1981]

I don't think shorting the Nifty is a good idea at this point in time. Refer to Nifty daily chart (attached).

View attachment 10944

After breaking the intermediate-trend line in october, Nifty made a low of 2252 at Point-A on 27-Oct-08 (diwali). Since then there is a triangle formation with a higher bottom at Point-B (20-nov-08). The best place to go short after this was at Point-C when the intermediate trend line was again broken to the downside. you could have earned about 200 points till today (Point-D). However, today we have bounced from exactly the lower trend line i.e. Point-D at about 2681. If this continues, short-covering might take us to very high levels in a matter of few days. It would have been better had you waited for this triangle's lower trend line to be broken before going short. If its broken in a day or two, that might easily take us lower to test the Point-B and Point-A lows.

Thats just my analysis. I am open to other ideas.

Cheers

For all you people who wanted to go short, what do you say now? This is yesterday's NIFTY EOD:

The Triangle formation is almost complete and just about to break on the upside. As I'm writing this NIFTY has touched the upper edge of the triangle at 2842. If it breaks substantially above that, there is at least going to be one big rally upto 3500.
Long term bear trend may be intact as long as the blue channel is holding. But 3500 is a minimum. What do you say ?

Cheers

 

[TraderInTheZONE]

Long term bear trend may be intact as long as the blue channel is holding. But 3500 is a minimum. What do you say ?
Cheers

I don't say anything !

 

[TraderInTheZONE]

Date:31-1-2009
according to information i got that fii will bring down markets to lowest level thats appoximately sensex 6000 and nifty 2000.

hmmm...............