Nifty technicals

[findvikas]

FII/DII market activity - 12/17/2009 (values in Rs. crores)

Cash Market Stats

Category    Date          Buy Value     Sell Value 	Net Value
FII         17-Dec-2009   2356.45 	2163.63          192.82
DII         17-Dec-2009   1225.62 	1092.34          133.28

FII Derivatives Stats

Category        Date          Buy Value    Sell Value 	Net Value
INDEX FUTURES   17-Dec-2009   897.26       1313.55       -416.29
INDEX OPTIONS   17-Dec-2009   2740.31      2663.33        76.98
STOCK FUTURES   17-Dec-2009   1937.46      1948.17       -10.71
STOCK OPTIONS   17-Dec-2009   0.00         9.04           -9.04

Source:
Cash: http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_fii_nsebse.htm
Derivatives: http://www.nseindia.com/content/fo/fii_stats.xls

FII is still withdrawing money from Indices. There was very less volume today in Index futures compared to other days. Something is cooking.. make or break will happen tomorrow

 

[findvikas]

Technical for 12/21/2009

Trend: Down (Started 12/14/2009 on a close below 5149.15)
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 5033 on 12/21/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 5040 on 12/22/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 5042 on 12/23/2009

Points in current trend: 161.45

Previous trend: Up
Started on 12/10/2009 on a close above 5115.85
Ended on 12/14/2009 below 5149.15
Profit / Loss: 33.3
Duration: 3 days




See the STOP LOSS level and see the SHORT level... we have blocked the 109 points profit. This is the beauty of this system when market is trending and not just consolidating. If market is making move on either side.. you get rewarded by the maximum move.

 

[findvikas]

FII/DII market activity - 12/18/2009 (values in Rs. crores)

Cash Market Stats

Category    Date          Buy Value     Sell Value 	Net Value
FII         18-Dec-2009   2227.95 	2434.80         -206.85
DII         18-Dec-2009   1391.31 	1060.36          330.95

FII Derivatives Stats

Category        Date          Buy Value    Sell Value 	Net Value
INDEX FUTURES   18-Dec-2009   841.65       1687.00       -845.35
INDEX OPTIONS   18-Dec-2009   3219.26      2932.82        286.45
STOCK FUTURES   18-Dec-2009   1653.68      1690.19       -36.51
STOCK OPTIONS   18-Dec-2009   6.47         33.36         -26.90

Source:
Cash: http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_fii_nsebse.htm
Derivatives: http://www.nseindia.com/content/fo/fii_stats.xls

FII is still withdrawing money from Indices. There was very less volume today in Index futures compared to other days.


As I said earlier, FII continue to pull the money out of system and probably hedging their remaining longs with buying options. On the other hand DII are supporting the markets and accumulating.

FIIs seem to be distributing all over. Coming week being the last week before they go for holidays, there is every possibility that they complete their distribution cycle and remove their support from lower levels to take Nifty for a south trip.

Have a lovely weekend to you all.

 

[findvikas]

Technical for 12/22/2009

LTP: 4,952.60

Trend: Down (Started 12/14/2009 on a close below 5149.15)
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 5040 on 12/22/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 5042 on 12/23/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 4987 on 12/24/2009

Points in current trend: 198

Previous trend: Up
Started on 12/10/2009 on a close above 5115.85
Ended on 12/14/2009 below 5149.15
Profit / Loss: 33.3
Duration: 3 days



So far gave you average 33 points daily since we went in downtrend...

 

[findvikas]

FII/DII market activity - 12/21/2009 (values in Rs. crores)

Cash Market Stats

Category    Date          Buy Value     Sell Value 	Net Value
FII         21-Dec-2009   1836.24 	2128.18         -291.94
DII         21-Dec-2009   1180.71 	826.88           353.83

FII Derivatives Stats

Category        Date          Buy Value    Sell Value 	Net Value
INDEX FUTURES   21-Dec-2009   1338.74      1939.08       -600.34
INDEX OPTIONS   21-Dec-2009   3232.59      2856.99        375.60
STOCK FUTURES   21-Dec-2009   3189.36      3043.22        146.14
STOCK OPTIONS   21-Dec-2009   39.57        12.69          26.87

Source:
Cash: http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_fii_nsebse.htm
Derivatives: http://www.nseindia.com/content/fo/fii_stats.xls


FII just keep on distributing and see who is buying it all, DII. Once FII broke the support it will be DII first to join the bandwagon and book their longs to create a shorting rampage.
They are shorting 5000CE as well which is quite negative as you never see such volume shorting at near money Call option. January data has a OI increase of 155% in the 4900CE while 55% OI in 5000CE. Market is not going to hold on to support this time. If you look at the SENSEX's weekly chart. It has opened and closed well below the support line coming from March lows.

 

[findvikas]

FII/DII market activity - 12/22/2009 (values in Rs. crores)

Cash Market Stats

Category    Date          Buy Value     Sell Value 	Net Value
FII         22-Dec-2009   1209.27 	1319.33         -110.06
DII         22-Dec-2009   1301.03 	790.44           510.59

FII Derivatives Stats

Category        Date          Buy Value    Sell Value 	Net Value
INDEX FUTURES   22-Dec-2009   1340.34      918.44         421.90
INDEX OPTIONS   22-Dec-2009   2228.99      1994.71        254.27
STOCK FUTURES   22-Dec-2009   3759.40      3217.48        541.92
STOCK OPTIONS   22-Dec-2009   13.57        14.58         -1.01

Source:
Cash: http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_fii_nsebse.htm
Derivatives: http://www.nseindia.com/content/fo/fii_stats.xls

 

[findvikas]

Technical for 12/23/2009

LTP: 4985.85

Trend: Down (Started 12/14/2009 on a close below 5149.15)
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 5042 on 12/23/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 4987 on 12/24/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close above): 4953 on 12/29/2009

Points in current trend: 163.3
Days in current trend: 7

Previous trend: Up
Started on 12/10/2009 on a close above 5115.85
Ended on 12/14/2009 below 5149.15
Profit / Loss: 33.3
Duration: 3 days

 

[sachinsamani]

reversed to long at 5042.

 

[findvikas]

Technical for 12/24/2009

LTP: 5144.60

Trend: Up (Started 12/23/2009 on a close above 5042)
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close below): 4987 on 12/24/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close below): 4953 on 12/29/2009
Stop Loss / Reversal (Close below): 4986 on 12/30/2009

Points in current trend: 102.6
Days in current trend: 1

Previous trend: Down
Started on 12/14/2009 on a close below 5149.15
Ended on 12/23/2009 above 5042
Profit / Loss: 107.15
Duration: 7 days

 

[watcher]

Dear Vikas,
I have some 4600 puts for the Jan settlement bought yesterday at 43.5. Do you think I will be able to make money in it. Could you suggest some strategy for me.
Thanks and regards