Nifty Pivot-based Mechanical Trading System coupled with 2 and 3 Day Swing Calls

[Sunil]

the way things are going now, i feel, if it sustains above 3000, then system might give a LONG call
one hour more for clearer picture

 

[Sunil]

to make sure that we all have same values in excel, i m gonna post the OHLC values too after EOD (as suggested by a friend/co-member)

the file is updated till 16 Dec...

Data of 17th DEC
SPOT
OPEN=3040.45
HIGH=3076.20
LOW=2943.50
CLOSE=2954.35

FUTURE
OPEN=3097.25
HIGH=3097.25
LOW=2936.10
CLOSE=2948.70


DATA FOR 18DEC
SPOT
OPEN=2955.35
HIGH=3072.55
LOW=2922.65
CLOSE=3060.75

FUT
OPEN=2951
HIGH=3091.65
LOW=2931.20
CLOSE=3076.35

 

[Sunil]

POSITION AS AT END OF 18-DEC-08

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
Shifted from Sell to Buy from today's close

2. 2 Day Swing
Position: Long @ SPOT 2788 since 4-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2923

3. 3 Day Swing
Position = Long @ SPOT 2928 since 10-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2923


OVERALL POSITION
We shift from Neutral to LONG position today as at today's close FUT 3073 / SPOT 3061
As SAR for both 2D & 3D is same, we will reverse to SHORT if SPOT closes below 2943 tomorrow

 

[ThE HaMmEr]

sunil u didnt post today ???

 

[S S]

I likes this reverse swing balling.
However.........!
Sunil......You have to get the details for atleast 10 days continuously to check for the results.

How many times, one hits the profits and how many times, one's stoplosses are hit [or in other words, one books the Losses] shall decide the dependability of the "Mechanial" part of the game.

Cheers and Good Luck!

 

[Sunil]

POSITION AS AT END OF 19-DEC-08

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
Position: Long at FUT 3076 / SPOT 3061 since 18Dec
(The excel system MAY give SELL call if FUT closes below 3040 (S1 value) on Monday 22-Dec; obviously we will have to confirm with actual High & Low of that day too)

2. 2 Day Swing
Position: Long @ SPOT 2788 since 4-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2923 (which is the lowest low of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Position = Long @ SPOT 2928 since 10-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2923 (which is the lowest low of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
LONG CALL from FUT 3076 / SPOT 3061 since 18-Dec is maintained and carried forward.
As SAR for both 2D Swing & 3D Swing is same, this multi-layered system will will reverse to SHORT if SPOT closes below 2923 on 22-Dec

 

[Sunil]

Personal view on Nifty levels

The short term uptrend, since the low of 2500, is in form of Higher-Low Higher-High (HL HH) pattern, as visible in 30min/60min charts.
After making a new higher high on Friday, SPOT 2923 becomes the key previous HL and a close below SPOT 2923 breaks/stops/reverses the uptrend.
SPOT 2923 is also the 5 Day Swing Low & thus, last week's low.
A close below SPOT 2923 would also mean a re-failure of 50Day Simple Moving Average.

The corresponding FUT level is around 2930, which was the near-low of both Thursday & Friday.


On upside, SPOT 3145-3160 is the key resistance band. A break above confirms the intermediate uptrend.

 

[Sunil]

sunil u didnt post today ???

A CLOSE (be it 5 points or 50 points), in direction of the earlier position, means our position is safe....

 

[Sunil]

Pivotal levels (as per formula) for coming week (all SPOT levels):

R2 = 3220
R1 = 3148 (coincides with the chartical resistance, as aforesaid)

Pivot = 3036 (coincides with Friday's Low)

S1 = 2964
S2 = 2852

 

[Sunil]

it seems that closing will not be below 3040... so, longs continue