NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[Option.Trader]

I maintain a ledger of FII Index OI.

My observations from it:

FII accumulated longs in the entire month of July. However, something clicked. And since 25th July (expiry) they have been squaring off which is exactly when the fall started. Hence, FII are bullish, they didn't start the fall but were only reacting. GOI screwed up.

They have not initiated the fall. But may start to, which will take Nf to decent lows.

This also solves the puzzle of such high levels of NF premium inspite of a sharp fall. FIIs had been holding Index futures and were hopeful and didn't want to get out.

FIIs have not completely squared-up and are still holding decent amount of long positions (around 117K units in OI).

Upon plotting the avg price of FII, it shows that the price is near the lower levels where it is likely to find support. So, with a trigger FIIs are likely to start collecting longs again.

I also plot the limits of FII OI, it shows that the FII OI holding is near the lower side. It still has some way to go down. So it is possible the FII square off a little more.

It appears as though a strong move is unlikely. Consolidation is on the cards. But you never know. One news can change all estimates.

The issue with this is you are not taking into account the hedges they might have taken, at one point they were massive buyers in otm 5400pe which would have cushioned this fall. Still I don't see any indication of a turn in place.
Pair trading as I said earlier is risky due to swings, 5700pe has unwound more than 10l in 2 days. Raj I think when there is a trend indicated by volatility chart you are better of taking spreads instead of pairs. Pairs are good for intraday range bound markets

 

[VJAY]

Dear raj,
In OI tool Change in OI intraday PE part volume shows in 2 digit as 16,17,18,19 etc only ...please look this problem...

 

[healthraj]

Dear raj,
In OI tool Change in OI intraday PE part volume shows in 2 digit as 16,17,18,19 etc only ...please look this problem...

Thanks. I noticed that. Those of you who want to correct the formula can paste the following formula.

In cell G8

=IF(C8="CE",SUMIF(SOData!L$15:L$200,D8,SOData!D$15:D$200),SUMIF(SOData!L$15:L$200,D8,SOData!T$15:T$200))

In Cell G9

=IF(C9="CE",SUMIF(SOData!L$15:L$200,D9,SOData!D$15:D$200),SUMIF(SOData!L$15:L$200,D9,SOData!T$15:T$200))

 

[shiv2012]

Even though BNF is hitting new lows, the Put option premiums are dropping !! Weird case...

In think for the next few months, we can simply follow the rupee chart and dump all other charts to trade this market..

 

[prabhsingh]

5550 is the level from where Nifty might bounce.

 

[jagankris]

Dear Friends,

My question is - is there any way to find if smart money is accumulating call or put during intraday ?

@Jamit - I am also tracking FII OI.
As per yesterday's close
The hedge ratio stands at 82.64 calculated with my limited knowledge.
That is 82.64% of their positions in Index are shorts.
Like wise in the stocks they have 64% shorts and 36% long.
From 24th onwards their Nifty longs has been unwinded from
4lakh and 16038 lots to 221,591.
During the previous fall their total max shorts reads 14 lakhs 22706 lots
where as yesterday's close reads 8 lakh 94058 lots.

I don't rule out a bounce from here.But more fall can be expected.
Raj's tool indicating -weak bear.

Previous swing low.
Long term weekly trend line support.
More than 560 points fall.

6000,5900,5800,5700,5600 all puts sheding their OI.
VIX at its previous high (Yesterday's chart) today it should have reached the peak.

TIA.

 

[VJAY]

Dear Raj bhai,
Is it my vola chart correct?
green is abv trend line...so is it not Bullish? :confuse:

 

[healthraj]

Dear Friends,

My question is - is there any way to find if smart money is accumulating call or put during intraday ?

@Jamit - I am also tracking FII OI.
As per yesterday's close
The hedge ratio stands at 82.64 calculated with my limited knowledge.
That is 82.64% of their positions in Index are shorts.
Like wise in the stocks they have 64% shorts and 36% long.
From 24th onwards their Nifty longs has been unwinded from
4lakh and 16038 lots to 221,591.
During the previous fall their total max shorts reads 14 lakhs 22706 lots
where as yesterday's close reads 8 lakh 94058 lots.

I don't rule out a bounce from here.But more fall can be expected.
Raj's tool indicating -weak bear.

Previous swing low.
Long term weekly trend line support.
More than 560 points fall.

6000,5900,5800,5700,5600 all puts sheding their OI.
VIX at its previous high (Yesterday's chart) today it should have reached the peak.

TIA.

JK,

If you can tell me where you are getting the FII data, I can download and present the data.

Reg. the trend, yes it was a Weak Bear for the last one hour of Trading and you also saw that the NIFTY bounced back 30 points from 5546 to 5576. But for most of the day it was indicating a STRONG BEAR.

 

[sanjeev258380]

hello raj bro...wer are you...today no update?

 

[VJAY]

JK,

If you can tell me where you are getting the FII data, I can download and present the data.

Reg. the trend, yes it was a Weak Bear for the last one hour of Trading and you also saw that the NIFTY bounced back 30 points from 5546 to 5746. But for most of the day it was indicating a STRONG BEAR.

Dear raj,
these links may be help you so after that help us too

http://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/investment/FIILatestSE.jsp?period=day

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php