My trade setups

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-

After lurking around in the swing point area (mentioned in my last post) for few days, today this finally broke-out.
View attachment 50489

Due to how the overall markets surged today and the kind of volume this had, I was being a little cautious on this position. As this was almost near my target of 1100, I didn't want to expose the whole position to risk. Just to be safe I closed 50% of my position today @1086.50.

Update on this position-

Closed my complete position here today @1100. I am not closing this because it doesn't look strong anymore. In fact I am closing it on strength today. The reason I am closing is because a) It has already reached my preconceived target and b) I cannot see and make a thesis on how it can grow further from here, specially in the near term range bound market.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-

As I mentioned in my last post on this, it looked like BAJAJHLDNG would be breaking the short-term range in the upwards direction. Yesterday it held itself with market corrections. Today as the market bounced back, this broke-out of the range and gave a good spike. I sold another 20% today @9270.
As of now, I am holding 40% of my initial position. I will try to trail this and reap as much from the ongoing momentum.

Update on this position-

I didn't get the momentum I was expecting here on my remaining position. Looked like it would, at best, trade in a range for now. Closed the remaining 40% of my position here today @8306.50

 

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-

This gave a good spike today and it is very near my expected target as the market is closing. I didn't want to take so much risk here, as it can open tomorrow with some pullback after this kind of spike. Hence I closed 33% of my position @824.
I'll be selling another 33% if it looks like it will open with weakness and can go for a retrace.

Update on this position-
Price reached back to the all time highs here. This will for sure face some resistance, at least on very short term. As it has already worked as per my thesis and achieved the target, I have sold another 33% @850.
I have only 33% now open here. Keeping this in case it breaks the highs and go for a momentum run. In case it faces resistance at the highs then I will sell this out as well.

 

[Anurag N]

CGCL

Trade Status: Filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 92%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.03

Time Frame: Weekly

Entry Price: 204.10

Target Price: 235

Stop Price: 174.10

Long term:

Intermediate term:

Short term:

WHY THIS TRADE

Want to get some stake in Financial services. This one among Finance is doing multiple retests on multiple time frames.


ENTRY REASONING

Sitting at the bottom of the retest area with huge support.


TARGET REASONING

It will start feeling the selling pressure near the highs. 1st target is at the bottom of the high zone and 2nd target is towards the top of the high zone.


STOP REASONING

Failing the monthly and weekly retests, followed by multiple SPL breakouts on weekly timeframe.

 

[Anurag N]

Next stock in my portfolio is JKLAKSHMI. Here is my thesis for this-

This stock was breaking out on all time frames. Monthly, weekly and daily all had breakouts happening simultaneously. When such conditions exist, there is a really high probability (around 82%) for a new rally to begin from there.

Monthly-
View attachment 50427

Weekly-
View attachment 50428

Daily-
View attachment 50429

I bought the position immediately on the breakout as sometimes such setups doesn't give a chance for a retest. I kept my target at 1230 as multiple Fibonacci projections were aligning in that area. I kept the stop at 819.40 as this would fail the swing points already and also penetrate below the daily range.

As of now, this is trading a couple of %age points above the breakout point but looks pretty strong. Once it makes a good spike upwards I'll raise the stop a little bit. I'll make an update post on this once I make any move here.

Update on this post

This didn't go as expected and had some drawdowns during the smallcaps corrections. I was looking for a bounce to sell off this position to reduce my loss here. It did get a bounce and reached important resistance area of 880. Sold 30% just to reduce risk here. Will sell more if it sees selling pressure here. Sold @886.55

 

[Anurag N]

CGCL

Trade Status: Filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 92%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.03

Time Frame: Weekly

Entry Price: 204.10

Target Price: 235

Stop Price: 174.10

Long term:
View attachment 50615

Intermediate term:
View attachment 50616

Short term:
View attachment 50617
WHY THIS TRADE

Want to get some stake in Financial services. This one among Finance is doing multiple retests on multiple time frames.


ENTRY REASONING

Sitting at the bottom of the retest area with huge support.


TARGET REASONING

It will start feeling the selling pressure near the highs. 1st target is at the bottom of the high zone and 2nd target is towards the top of the high zone.


STOP REASONING

Failing the monthly and weekly retests, followed by multiple SPL breakouts on weekly timeframe.

Update on this position-

This is breaking out today on the daily consolidation range. Gave a pretty big rally (as of now this is +12%). Price is now entering the resistance zone which is where the primary target is decided. I will see how it plays in the next couple of hours and accordingly sell a partial position in this by the end of the day.

 

[stoch]

Can you also extend your analysis for forex pairs? Or does it only work for stocks or similar assets?

 

[Anurag N]

Can you also extend your analysis for forex pairs? Or does it only work for stocks or similar assets?

It does work for forex. The probabilities are a little different there. As of now I don't have any forex position. Will definitely share once I trade them.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-

This is breaking out today on the daily consolidation range. Gave a pretty big rally (as of now this is +12%). Price is now entering the resistance zone which is where the primary target is decided. I will see how it plays in the next couple of hours and accordingly sell a partial position in this by the end of the day.

Update on this position-

This closed with +16% and reached the mentioned primary target. Sold 30% of my position @236. Didn't sell more as it looked very strong on closing. I will probably sell another 20% if it shows any kind of weakness at open tomorrow. The next target I am looking is around 250.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-
Price reached back to the all time highs here. This will for sure face some resistance, at least on very short term. As it has already worked as per my thesis and achieved the target, I have sold another 33% @850.
I have only 33% now open here. Keeping this in case it breaks the highs and go for a momentum run. In case it faces resistance at the highs then I will sell this out as well.

Update on this position-

As mentioned in the last post, I kept 33% of JINDALSTEL in case it streches beyond the target zone due to its momentum. It did see the price surging here and went till 900 which also happened to be the Fib projections on weekly chart. At this point it started consolidating on short term and made a doji yesterday. Today it opened with weakness which was a good trigger to sell out my position. I sold my remaining position @894.

Side comment- On long term this still looks very strong, in fact Steel industry looks quite bullish. I would like to buy it again on some correction. JSWSTEEL looks good to me if it gives a little bit of reversal on overall market corrections.