My trade setups

[Anurag N]

Hi fellow traders,
I am starting this thread to share my trading positions and ideas. Hoping to have insightful and fun discussions. Quick background about me- I am a swing trader in equities. I have been learning for last 4-5 years now, have started actively trading in the US market for last 2 years and now I have started trading in the Indian markets as well.

To start, this is one of the trade I picked early this month- BOSCHLTD
1. Long term quite bullish, so expected buyers to come near important support levels
2. At intermediate term, this already broke two swing point highs with great volume and gradually started coming back for a retest with much lesser volume

3. On short term as well this was retesting two swing point highs, which got broken with great volume and price came for a retest in the swing point zone.

>> This regenerated from the swing point zone. Closed this position @ 21000

 

[harryblr]

Anurag very interesting and thanks for sharing -whats the go forward advice and which one are you tracking next ? just joined forum and would like to learn and track alongside. have 3 years us investing and just started india trading.

 

[Anurag N]

@harryblr, for BOSCHLTD specifically, I have closed my complete position. I could have taken a partial profit here and let it run for some more time. But the market condition as of now didn't give me a lot of confidence so I closed this position fully. I might enter in this again if it shows some interesting pullbacks since this one is quite bullish on long term.

Regarding the other positions, CUMMINSIND was another one I bought alongside the one I shared. Here is my analysis for that-
1. This again had really good bullish run on long term, so it gives me more confidence from swing perspective

2. After a good run, this consolidated for some 14 weeks. So, I was betting on the breakout from its consolidation range. Since the consolidation was very crisp, it made a really strong support zone giving me confidence that the price wouldn't drop below this area.

3. Finally, I saw the buying opportunity when on short term this was testing the two swing points it broke. With a good breakout volume, it was very likely that it will quickly regenerate, so I took a position when the price was testing the swing points.

4. As I anticipated, it regenerated from the swing point tests and further broke out from the consolidation range. As of now, it has entered its resistance area where I am looking to take some partial profits, and may run the remaining position till its Fibonacci projection point. If it fails to show strength at resistance then I will completely close the position there itself.

>> I hope this helps. I will update once I close or make any advancement in this position.

 

[Anurag N]

Another trade I entered last week is ONGC. Here is my analysis-

1. Long term looked bullish with no visible resistance nearby, that gave confidence that this should get bought on a pullback in the current market conditions.

2. This stock got setup really nicely on short term. It came back after making its highs with great volume, signifying it should go back to these highs once it gets a rebound. The rebound was also highly likely since it was testing two swing point highs together. Both these swing points broke out and were not tested in the last 10 days which further increases the probability of regeneration when it gets tested.

>> Bought it when the price were testing the 2 swing points.
>> Targeting near the recent highs made at around 203. Might sell it only partially (around 70%) if it shows strength at this high, giving room to make a further move.
>> Setting a stop below these swing point candles and the support bed around it.

I will write a followup once I make any further move on this.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on the last two trades I posted- CUMMINSIND and ONGC.

These two reached their target points. Since the market gave good opportunity today to exit, closed both these positions.
CUMMINSIND- Closed at 1954.30.
ONGC- Closed at 201.95

There was another trade I took on AARTIPHARM which spiked today to my target level and closed that as well. I will write about this setup in my next post.

 

[Anurag N]

Trade on AARTIPHARM-

Pharma sector broke out on multiple timeframes, indicating strong demand. Microcaps in general were performing exceptionally well. This one was a good combination of the above two.

Long term looked clean and had bullish energy. This was doing a simple retest with nice support bars, so took an entry while the prices were doing the retest.

Today, this had a big spike of some 10%+ move. Closed this position at an avg price of 465.

 

[Anurag N]

Writing this post for the trade that I closed today in TIINDIA. Here is my setup and analysis-

1. Wanted a few stocks with high beta in my portfolio. This one looked interesting since its long term was quite strong bullish and recently broke out of a 1 year long range.

2. Since this stock is quite volatile, it made a high at 3700 in September and dipped back. This high got tested again in November, but this test was a failed attempt. Even though it failed, the test happened at a higher volume, so the chances were there that this high will soon get tested again.

3. If we see on short term, this test was done by breaking out and going back near its support area. The breakout happend with a huge volume while the retest happended with a comparatively smaller volume. This increased the chances that the support area will hold the price before an attempt is made to test back the highs.

>> Entered near the support area of 3400 which gave a good R/R with a nice ~10% swing target. This reached its target today and I closed the position near 3800.

 

[Anurag N]

My next analysis for the trade I closed this week- ZOMATO

1. ZOMATO was already having a great run. It looked like it would go till its opening price area (120-150) where it should feel the supply from the stakeholders who have been holding this stock since its IPO. Once it comes to this point it might show a decent drop, since it has more than doubled without any significant drops. So, I was waiting for a good swing opportunity before it hits its high area.

2. The opportunity came on short term, where the price was retesting one of the swing point high. This retest had a great chance of getting bought quickly because -
a) it broke out with a huge demand (high volume, wide price candle)
b) the prices went and stayed at the high point for quite some time (around 2 weeks) before coming back for a test
c) While coming for the retest, the volume was very low and the price was slowly gradually coming near the high point.

3. Bought this while the price was testing the swing point high candle, with a target back to the highs of 123-126. Have kept the stop around 103 area since there was good support above it in the form of-
a) The swing point high candle which it was testing
b) The high volume and wide price breakout candle
c) a bed of support between the above-mentioned candles
If the price breaks through all of these support points then it wouldn't be a normal pullback and the swing opportunity would no more exist.

>> I sold 30% of my position on 8th Dec when the price came near the resistance area and started dropping back.
>> Sold the remaining 70% on 14th Dec when the price came back again in the resistance area.

 

[Anurag N]

The next trade I am going to talk about is FACT. I am currently holding this position. Here is my analysis for this-

1. On long term, this was extremely bullish since the time it broke out of its range near 120. It has been going really strong ever since. This gave a good confidence to take a short term position for a high beta stock like this.
2. On short term, this made a very neat pennant structure. This looked like a very textbook example of surge in price with a spurt of volume followed by pennant formation with relatively no volume.

3. The pennant structure looked like it is about to be completed and it can breakout anytime now. I took a position at around 715 with a target at around 975. This target is calculated as per the abcd projection method. I kept a stop around 630 as it was one of the strongest support area on short term, but I would have closed or at least partially cut my position in case the pennant structure would start breaking downwards.

4. This broke out of the pennant structure early December

Please note that this is not following the classic breakout of pennant where the breakout happens with surge in price in just a couple of candles itself. Here it has gradually moved up. Since this is not going as per the pennant formation way, I am not very anal about its projected target. I am holding this as it is quite bullish as of now and has not shown any sign of end of bull run on short term. I have raised the stop to near 750 for now.
I will follow up and update on this trade when I plan on making any move here.

 

[Anurag N]

Next trade from my portfolio is BANKINDIA. Here is my analysis for it-

1. This was breaking out on all time frames (Monthly, Weekly and Daily). So if the market favours, this can give a nice spike on the breakout.
Monthly-

Weekly-

Daily-

2. I took my position before it attempted to breakout on daily. Did this because there were chances that the price will surge rapidly on the breakout and I wouldn't be able to get an entry here. Also, the risk was far less as there was decent support till 103 area (keeping it as my stop area).
3. I am hoping that this gives a good rally once it break out. I will see how it breaks out and decide accordingly how long to carry this position. But for now I am keeping the target as the monthly resistance area (where it will also test its 5 year old swing point low). This also happens to coincide with the Fib projection point on weekly time frame.