My Trade Journal

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Shared by Amitrandive

 

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NF-Statitics for the month of May-2015

Total Trades 29
Winners 18
Win points 520
big win 106
lossers 11
Loss points -149
Big loss 24
Total P/L points 371
p/L% 13.91%
gross profit 11615
gross loss -4660
net proft 6955
profit factor -2.49
%accuracy 62.07%

 

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Stopping my journal posts from today…started to save it with myself 
Will keep this thread to post/save good interesting posts/articles which I come across TJ and Internet.
As you many know am not a big trader,but learnt to follow and execute my trades as per my method.Though making mistakes and learning continues,,,,
I trade simple method (PA) without any indicators with 15 tf chart.Its frustrating some one making money when that day me not get any trade or loss trade.but ST da’s words/advice made me start to avoid this frustration .SO basicly consistent profit making methods are so boring …many time our mind attempt to do things which not per our method…controlling these actions are too difficult.once we started to control we change ourself as different trader
NOT BOTHER IF ANY ONE MAKE MONEY WHEN THAT DAY YOU NOT GET ANY TRADE/LOSS TRADE,WHEN OUR METHOD IS CONSISTENT PROFIT MAKING METHOD….USE MM FOR AVOID FEAR FACTOR
USE SIMPLE METHODS…NOT GET INTO MULTIPLE CONFIRMATION ENTRIES ON INTRADAY…IT NEVER HELPS
Last 5 month my P/L % is-
Jan- 21.75%
Feb-6.10%
March-20.40%
April-10.90%
May-13.90 %
So just follow rules of your good backtested method ....nothing else …..though its boring 

 

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Importance of VIX

VIX of 25 is on the higer side of the VIX band. When the trend is building up, we dont get high VIX. High VIX in a sideways range means that the market will make fast and furious up/down moves within the range which means the following :

1) Our stops are going to be large...so a 10 points stop when VIX is 12 is fine but at VIX of 24-25 it will need 20-25 points stop even on 3 min timeframe.

2) We have to take profits when there is a strong move as if we delay the profit taking, then the profits will evaporate by equally strong move in the other direction.

You will observe the above in last few days markets.....

High volatility sideways range gives a powerful trending move in some direction.But the markets will not bottom in high volatility environment. After high volatility, the market will go into low volatility and market participants will loose interest in the market....market will be dull....there will be capitulation of market participants and that will finally reverse the trend to long term uptrend.

This is the broad scenario expected...there could be some variation and it may not work exactly as described above.

Smart_trade

 

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Method of Calculating Index Range using Vix

Originally Posted by LivetoTrade View Post
Method of Calculating Index Range using Vix :

Step 1 : Note Index Spot price at closing.
Step 2 : Vix at closing.
Step 3 : Balance Number of days to expiry of current series.
Step 4 : 365 / Step 3. (Divide).
Step 5 : Square Root of Value derived in Step 4.
Step 6 : Vix / 100. (Divide).
Step 7 : Value of Step 6 / Value of Step 5. (Divide)
Step 8 : Multiply value of Step 7 x Spot price.
Step 9 : Subtract value of Step 8 from spot price to derive lower range.
Step 10 : Add value of Step 8 to spot price to derive upper range.

That is the range till expiry. For day trading you need to multiply VIX by sqrt(1/365) to find daily range. Or preferably sqrt (1/252).

 

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Good images shared by Amit bro..

 

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Originally Posted by jagankris View Post
Dear ST Da,

Pivots in a trend trading method...not to be used in range bound markets.
So what should be used to trade the range bound markets ?

In range bound markets use VWAP,Oscillators ( if one does not have allergy to oscillators) , range boundries. Using pivots in a range market is invitation to whipsaws and false trades.

I have always maintained that in trends and sideways range markets traders need to trade differently. The mechanical systems give mediocre results because most of then dont differentiate between trending and range markets and use same tools for both markets. So in trends they make money and loose large part of it in range markets.

Similarly in strong trends if one uses sideways range tools, one is sure to get losses as OB/OS will not work in strong trends.

Very very few mechanical methods have some way of knowing which type of market we are in and decide the tool to be used for trading it as such inputs to get mechanically is difficult.They normally will have a filter which will trade only when the market is in trending mode ( Like DeMark Mov Average 1 method ) and stay away in sideways. They normally dont have way of recognising and trading both types of markets.Even in trends, some trends are strong and broad, some are weak and limping or struggling types, some trends are tight...some are loose and volatile....and that is where discretionary trader scores over 100 % mechanical trading systems.

Take for example yesterdays Nifty futures. It was a volatile and weak trend...so we need to trade both ways as the dips after rallies are also deep and tradeable. But if it was tight strong trend, then trading counter-trend is hazardous.

Smart_trad

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