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oilman5

Well-Known Member
#51
In trading , we novice learner given high priority to entry.but pro on exit, and fm r on money management.unfortunately most FM [young one ] dont know risk management and contingency to implement WHAT IF.
TO solve it ,i am giving 2 variables....market condition and trade set up. Third where u fit , u should do yourself.
Market condition : 1] slowly up moving.......see 50dma uptrend, buy and hold easiest to play.normally country economic condition upswing
2] After continous upmove for some yr, media hype straight line index projection,analyst suggests 3yr projection ,forward looking p/e ,big enterpreneur r confident of capex and plans growth rate geometrically, WHILE economy moneyflow sustainability NOT possible,bear market starts.......shrewd traders join short in intermediate downtrend.
tool...10dma rapidly cuts down 100dma .
3] Market is rational , fluctuate within range, ......small target swing traders earn heavily,,,,TREND is your friend... TREND TRADER goes back to market as snake oil vendor and teach the fools 'buy low sell high' ; ta ' dcf, cagr, They bigly sell ...once upon a time....but fact is THEY dont suit here.
4] Market is efficient ........haha...present market, a suffiently knowledgable -flexible with objective mind can earn here.HE knows to programme but take ntrade what he likes, a strong filter ...may be advance/decline signal ..moneyflow .
btw... market reversal at pivot a major right set up bias for intra day candidate.
.................................................. ..................
2]TRADE SET UP
a] flow with trend ....as per ur suitable tactic see HIGHER HIGH in price
b] a pre determined reversal pt , confirmed by reversal bar
c] break out of certain narrow range, supported by 2 x av traded volume
d] unsustainable parabollic rise , so distribution started with higher sell volume.
.................................................. ............
scanner - pattern seach - volatilty study .........this r extra, basically confidence build up measure.
HOPE it helps to right initiation
bye
oilman
 
#52
Dear oilman5,

Really wonderful thread so far i have seen. I request you make a pdf when you feel posts are completed. Really it was useful information when compared to some books in the market.
 
#53
Best. Beyond words.
I copied it, pasted on word format, and it ocupied around 355 pages.
I cant even imagine to wrtie so much, and the quality of material. Ultimate. Hats off to you. Sadly, it might be the last thread, but it has compiled most of trading wisdom.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#54
hi, a good chap has compiled it at *********** dot com
........in pdf.....
if u like can take it from there.
 
#55
Hello Oilman5,

On pg no 5, you have recomended www.masteryoftrading.com.
I think it is a video course.
Is it workth buying?
Does the techniques given in this vides works on Nifty Fut?
Is there anybody else who has bought this video? Pl share your experience.

SKR
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#56
let me do a compilation from another thread of risk management.........
.................................................. .......................
first understand enterpreneurship in trading.
In trading .......knowledge /discipline/adaptability/understanding market/objectivity r supreme.......u have to acquire or learn it.
It takes time.......according to me 10yr atleast.
then understand risk involve in trade........basic difference is here risk is not potential but ACTUAL, where as profit is potential .Newcomer never understand it.
Next prepare an Edge.......anybody against u should be loser.
Use that EDGE , which timeframe suits u.......that modality of fitment by real time trade & analysis.
Where & when u r right ........just keep that one...........all others r to be unlearned.THEN can u learn Pyramiding/leverage that edge.......
again practice Discipline........only to stick to it,......may codify/or just follow it.Dont allow other variable to distract.
....................
actually in trading is thorough put,u continuously buy/sell in a discrete manner.......based on ur understanding/experiment/luck factor. Key is hold winner and throw loser early..........when u take a position ,i dont know what shall happen, so based on market observation , i shall book loss as per my criteria,.......best is can i add to winner.keep the ball/money so far u understand and getting return.....if its not, just stay out,.......sharpen ur skill and again comeback.
In trade its very imp to to create a risk-shield.............u r ready to protect ur money like knight.
after that learn.....what way u r comfortable............since u plan to continue as a marathan runner in market to earn atleast next 10yr........after successful trade learning.
indicators basic purpose is to give u confidence,........definitely momentum, understand exhausion of trend is imp,.........toughest learning is switch from one timeframe analysis to another time frame...........as accuracy may vary drastically ..........both +/-.
Mind it sensex is indicator of growth.
order book is indicator of profit potential and research is indicator of longterm sustainability.
toughest learning is switch from one timeframe analysis to another time frame...."
can you explain this a little more?
ya explaining it.
Ans : In normal 3 yr of learning ,all novices start to learn some method of entry, may be long term......bull entry, may be intraday.......% move and then profit book, similarly some swing buy.....like buy in pullback ie.bottom of a cup pattern.
Soon ie. after 3yr , its not suffient to earn from market is now known to him.......unless by God gifted luck he had made enough and left out Market.
So other method . other timeframe play, other forecasting idea like.......fundamental.ta or psychological + bookish random variable entry/exit system.....quantum method/fractal theory.........r read and variable strategy for different market condition which one to be applied.............r practiced for mastering.
Another problem is to fit ,where he fits naturally.........thats timeframe and style gives higher return with better strike rate.
In this search and learning ,he found out........its difficult to erase ......first pick up learning , it may be say break out play. So he has learnt it early......its with him now,........so even after 7 yr , .....if he finds a break out play in present market condition with poor probability , he may actually trade it only to lose money ,.......as he enjoys the thrill of early learning days.SIMILARLY its the time frame,.........many trader starts early as investor,........that backgroud stops not to trade at certain condition, because of complex RISK..NONO. THose who starts strong as dealer,......can not hold a 3day profit run..........knowing fully well it will move another 15% ,but block with condition of max 5%profit book, more than that u r greedy,,,,,,,,scalpers curse.
Similarly a trained swing trader of booking around 10-12 % profit ,.......can not move down to 3-5 %profit in random time frame mode so easily.
YES IT IS THE HARDEST THING TO DO
........................
Trading starts with excesses.........excess knowledge/excess time/excess money.
3places u have to fight..............self/other traders/market.
Your other life.......should not fight with your trade learning life,this environment is imp.
then comes choise of system /strategy/timeframe.
variable market condition.......up/down/volatile/nontrend small move .
Which one to be done by you.......as per ur expectation......buy/hold/sell.
What price is telling u to do? .....buy/hold/sell
Now understand to prepare trade journal.........its tool of tuning,understand what u r supposed to do vs what u have done actually.
What is ur info source......can u nullify any hearsay from market..........your decision making skill should not be variable.....it must be sharpen constantly.
how u handle stress generated out of trading.
ALL this must be writen and followed just like breathing, then u r a trader.
Journey of a trader starts from novice to beginner to advance level to expert. then comes Master.Now between advance level and expert.............its really very slippery,.......i forgot to count how many times i flawed........mostly when i think i know market..........i am humbled to basic.........fortunately like cat has 9 lives........again i move. Humilation ,to face it........discipline ,recoup energy and walk again.....is i posses as trader
Originally Posted by sumosanammain
I beg to differ in just one of the lines.

We cannot win if we feel we are fighting with self/other traders/markets....
Why fight... just flow with the movement, its possible you may take multiple small losses before getting the trend right, but thinking of the mkt as going to war with other traders and trying to battle your way to victory will make things more harder than they really are

..........................................
Thanks sir,
this view is because.............we r by birth not at all trader,......say first doing ur swot.........u know what u r,......so from somewhere u r transforming u a trader.
First i am giving a hypothetical case,.......a math postgraduation topper, shifting to a trader. As to learn trading,......it takes time,........so u r doing some formula - model to know ,what may work as a trader for u.
U may choose.......arbitrage model, or simple random mean reversion, even excel based fundamental equity based.......forecasting proforma model. Now u find , based on actual what is gap,........ie. error,.......but being trained mathematician,......u cant take.......possibility for absolute number to change, objectivity works for u,........but since system itself is variable,.........u have to understand.........block with number itself is harmful for ur development as trader,......conceptually to take 300pt up, followed by 450pt down within 3 days......tells either ur programming is wrong OR ur mathematical idea-notion is wrong.............this is a type of internal fight.
similarly u understand........u have u learn certain thing,.......but time constraint or other priority ..........makes u choose...........so again come fight against U.
Next i am telling my chess case,.......in chess as i have learnt in childhood.....understand pattern , but for competition...........u must fight till death,........use ur best defence skill ......when playing against GM.
.............now understand the problem with me,.......i was known as av chess player........my rank was within single digit,in my state in 1975.......and after that with chess study of 10 yr.........later i am shifting to tradelearning,........
YES u r not supposed to fight,.........but i can not take loss,.........simple a trade loss is nothing.........just wont hold it,.........or else face mother of all loses...........a la 5lakh..............i know how much bleed by it.
In trade ,pure small losing trade should be thrown out first...........but due to my different conditioning i showing fight back attitude,......create trouble for my trading a/c..........this i call fight within self.
.................................
Yes against other trader means opposite direction u have to commit with money.
But against Market...........particularly flow of FII?MF.......i should be with nor against them.
FOR stopping newspaper/tv .......only to follow by price..........it takes me lot restriction .......more than 3 yr........here also i faced internal fight in mind.
...................
hope i clear my view.......So far flow with flow is best........but is difficult for me
..........................
Originally Posted by vijayvaliya
can you share your thoughts on portfolio management?

.................................................. .....................................
This is the topic.......i am interested to learn. Definitely some indians know it , i have not seen to talk ..........literature may be strictly secret.
Bookish View;........dont put egg in one busket.
3 case scenario..........cash -bond- stock
Ur edge-risk taking capacity,holding period.......interrelation,alfa/beta
.................................................. ..................
Actual case sofar i smell.........sector rotation
when risk is higher........u may sit on cash.
if u dont know, u have to learn..........make no investment.....be cynic.
better be contrarian.........atleast against media hype.
Simple strategy of playing aggressive on winner gives better return.
Savant/Traderji/AW10......may have some idea........they may help, but in public whether they shall post?.....i dont know
btw...........PMS persons in india .....some pie chart......with least inter dependency sectors.............r wrong thing to copy.
Only literature i have seen by Mr Boucher.......trainers of fund manager
sector rotation is a simple concept for efficient market.......many MF cannot totally get out of market , and they actually put back in some sector which was dumped earlier........normally cycle varies.........10month to 20month to moneyflow back in a sector,........also swing flow is possible 1month to month gap .
Playing aggressive on winner.........MM strategy
PMS ...portfolio management service
Pie chart........representation by circle , fund allocation....bookish idea of 1952
Mark Boucher.........authority on practical appln of financial managent normally trains billion $ handling fund managers.......in 1994-2002.
search in suitable place like 4shared/tradingmarkets........u may get it.
the logic of risk management and simplicity in trading is absolutely right.
But for stock trading.......pms exists ........and believe me ,fundamental really counts.
Result of stock/news has some role to play.
its the big fish .......they decide market.........so from certain characteristic & moneyflow u can with high accuracy tell.........where in particular direction trade is possible.Infact ur theory best work in forex........u may play there.
..........we study Trend to understand ..........trend reversal in near future possible or not..........so that's an oppurtunity.Be ready for possible scenario.
Again by seeing a Trend , check if in higher timeframe Continuity is possible(highly probable)........so that we shall not exit from a position,........if momentum also supporting then we may add........in Trend continuation.So trend itself not imp.......but Trend continuation -trend reversal.......chance of each of them happening and moving the same principle to higher timetrame........key theme of usefulness of trend.
when u understand trend exhaustion ,,,,,,,,,,,,so money making possible.Actually another 2MM principle is imp......Marginal trade & opputunity trade.
Marginal trade concept :you r in a position .......trade move in ur direction, u earn by booking profit..........only to see later ........trend is continuing ie. by simply holding u could have earn more.So u have to consider ur trade profit potential by creating ratio by profit booking ,divided by total move of stock in just next highertime frame.
OPPurtunity trade concept : here u r holding some position , so u r seeing some new oppurtunity , since ur money is blocked........u can not enter in potential trade, after some in ur time frame.......trade is making desired profit,......but for its on paper ,as u can not take the real trade,so restraint of fund .Similarly 3oppurtunity comes ,u put money on 2,......after some only to see thirdone gives better move.......alas for u its again a paper profit........TRADE oppurunity .
Elimination of this 2 mistake can improve ur trade return dramatically
A child even can earn with Discipline , when its long term Bull market starts,by utilising 2weeklyMA with 8weekly MA '........its a tool to suggest for bull market arrived and shall exist atleast for some time.
Counter-trend system is a traders tool, algother in different market context.For short term reversal study,5day DEMA .....its slope is sufficient to tell ,when the market is changing its characterisic.For oppurtunity search , even simple Scan based on 10d William%r ........is sufficiently ok to give u ,candidate to Right trade.
...................................
when market enters in volatile zone,............its futile to use trend/nontrend systems.
...............................
to earn......believe in own system & use stop,........or simply switch to different system which work in present market context.
.............................
understand context first, u have data ........just see WHAT its telling.pl believe KISS
........recently i read in professional traders' coaching .....this hypes r created to serve illusion to newbees to lure TRADING IS EASY.....ensuring suppliers of fools,.......so the industry can earn,its a coldblooded fact in industry, as if indian solders were cannonfeeder in 1st world war for britishers.
imp of basic programming for trade learner
.................................................. ............
if u ask me whether as a trader,..........u give programming or mba which comes first...........ofcourse programming . but programmer must know trading first.........so it creates oppurtunity to isolate.......wrong trade vs. profit making trade .
It cuts out sensitivity in trading and develop objective view.ASK Traderji why he is great ?........ofcourse mastraders' programming skill help them to reach icon status. so price speaks for them.......what may happen now.............Next various scanner search /give them oppurtunity in real time,.......just like a sharp shooter fights against sword champion from a distance.......... SO WINNERS R EXPECTED ........mind it many extra night they r awoke to prepare /test the tools in market.
the problem of new learner........they dont know what is winning idea in present market.......so their programming skill fails , instead what if scenario preparation, should study.........background of price movement.......from stable to a new zone,........after that high/close and X function and some strength study formula preparation can make a candidate for trial-trader
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Many yr back 1995, bhel-hardwar.......in the month of June ,in an open bridge tournament........on the 1st day of tournament, candidates r offered 2problems to solve..........prize 3000/- and 2nd soln giver to get 1000/-.........timeframe within 2days.
We r being in BHEL Quarter/guest house.........& mostly tried to solve them.Kanpur IIT team tried really hard,.......Present India top players of Ankeleshwaria.......and his partner really spent good time,.........novices.......were dreaming to get prize, sleeping at wee hr.Since i am with new partner 60+age, i have to mug system........so i admit to fail. After first day,........the prize money was not yet claimed, i hoped to solve it,.....Alas my partner pulled me out,..........as we r in main swing , he told me to concentrate further,.......to practice some tips......so i went back with him in an ashram where he was staying. Yes next day we played well,........sufficiently confident to win a prize...........i went back to Dehradun , highly proud, as some great name like Mr S Gupte offerred me, ........also some other businessman offered to join in professional group.
.....................Yes that was my first top winning tournament in bridge,.........but i knew now its shear coinsidence, i executed well, my partner........60 + , handled disciplined part, and we r lucky..........as most young/top callibre players r wasted their TIME .........to solve mathematical puzzle of null event.[1st problem has no soln]
I myself experimented vector modelling[being BE(MECH)] to solve,..........market price mathematically...............knowing now its big o_Only KISS works in market.this is actual trading.
Theoriticians r ...........just to be avoided in trading
To understand view on stocktrading , just see the win of final match of Vishy......Topalov a child, The game idea is of SSganguly.......black creates a drawish style,......a simple ...Ba6......later Bb7........a poisonous La Dragon.......Topalov forget.......Anand had played many aggressive game in younger yr,......so small positional element,backed by a surprise ploy......f5 ,really can outwit on board. This style of SSGanguly is unknown......to many so called best rated player[read squant].
....................after stoploss, only 2 things r left..............leverage on winner,keep urself with healthy attitude..................for av learner, reaching +ive expectency ' consistently earning out of market..........brings further quest.........bringing big winner. here on he become a discreationary trader(i know some of my friend dont like this word)......winning trade is a filter.........and he adds if he finds momentum /accln in volume or quickly reaching target.........yes this alone give u high return.........just check yourself with trend continuation idea.
................................


Healthy attitude........starts by questioning do i follow trade journal ?my right trade how far due to my execution skill/market favors me randomly........
next is how far smoothly i can trade and can it be transferred to others.......or otherwise unique to self.
WITH THIS WE R COMPLETING TRADE LEARNING.........next is practice.do it urself
In short term trade ,we search for bias ........bias for direction. imp is pivot.........pt of conflict.......known seller /buyer may take position to test market........based on their system.........actual system of earning is ........how bull/bear is losing battle ......so comes Oppurtunity........say yesterday,,.....upside conflict at Nifty 5280.......tells me many 3% probable upside trade exist for monday 5th april,but which has potential to go 8% ........they r to be taken.
Remember the flowers idea.........its the continuity ........breaking of higher pivot.......potential trade exists.
problem is in daystyle ........many may buy there,where as higher timeframe players r actually fading............so unless u know beforehand who may win..........mostly u shall in loser side,including self.
so u have to add some filter say simple 20dma with a some 1/2 hr price bar for continuation + volume accln filter..........u see winning trades r looking at u.
.........
a core pt r presented here.'how to lose money in stockmarket'......pl avoid them
.................................................. .........................................
1]Trade in options without understanding and context of present market condition
2]not use stoploss
3]Cut your profits short and let the losses run
4]Select a method and start trading it because you are in a hurry to trade, not because the method is sound
5]Don't use any method or plan at all! ... Just buy as much as you can or short as much as you can
6]Take a position and go to sleep!
7]Listen and trade according to CNBC calls........JUST REVERSE ,ITS GOOD EARNING METHOD.
8] Never use your own brain for trading ... Never try to learn anything but taking position and squaring it off! Search extensively secret underground sources for TIP ...
9]Trade against trend ..........BUT THIS IS ONE OF MY EARNING METHOD.
10]Engage in extra-curricular activities during market hours AND Forget your commitment of trading seriously/mindfully .
11]Always assume that you are always right..even when proved wrong..take it as temporary setback and start with fresh vigor resuming your assumption that you are and will be always right..
12]There is only one rule....that is....TRADE WITHOUT RULE.....you will reach your goal.
13] If the basic hypothesis upon which a trade is entered does not exist, then one has to remain in the trade, hoping the situation to get more worse!
14] Emotions aka false ego....
Emotions aka i know all i longed/shorted this script and its going to follow me,i longed/shorted this script coz i know all about markets,always remember markets are not supreme,its the false ego in me.
.................................................. ....
Avoiding the methods of losing money mentioned in this thread would be quite helpful to become a successful trader
so as per modern concept key idea is
1] understand sentiment of present market
2] psychological neutrality
3] effective risk management
4] add/leverage when right.
5] where to put stop....../when not to play
6] preparation.......then only u can execute.....u have to develop a system which suits u
7] learn to play in atleast 3 types of market.......trend UP /DOWN ; VOLATILE , SIDEWAYS market.........mixing of them can be learnt later.
use very simple indicator..........but master over it.understand......price variation can be reflected in them.......so that......by seeing change in Indicator........u can develop to predict Right side of chart.
MA- X simply suggest trendliness, momentum tools use for strength.......support/resistance breaking tells us about future of a stock.
8] future of NIFTY and MONEYFLOW.......comes before everything.
have expressed nothing on risk management.
if u ask me personally.........i try check whether high probability exists.
for intraday ........if i see , i am not getting my target.........time stop.
For swing , depends on particular stock..........time/particular % fall.......stop triggering
for intermediate term......its the fundamental reason of trade /or sudden big reversal .....then i trigger stop.
Naturally i have different A/c in broking house for that purpose.
For first 10 yr...........i have various approach and fouling.........not now.
If i am not on screen , no intraday.
If i dont understand reason behind trade, no trade.
.........so taking less trade,is my main risk management technique.
This marginal trade and oppurtunity trade r excellent money management concept........an advance level learner on market practices.......first one is how much more he can squeeze out of same trade.opportunity trade in mm is spill bean concept.........both r subjective.
By the way, similar name trade exists ........both r used by momentum traders.......a volume set up , then a trigger on price......a quick small profit execution.u can do it mathematically.
'Execution' (or say implementation) is one area which has taken many years and money for me to tame. Over a period I have managed to create a system which is devoid of interference of various functions of Trading and portfolio management.

Having read various books on related subjects, the basis of this system is dervied from a very simple and a small book titled - Six Thinking Hats : Edward de Bono. You can find jist of this small and wonderful book on the net.
......................
after trade analysis/pms...........in which hat?
i guess it.......combination of some hat,......by the way redhat is always NO in trading.
can u elaborate little bit,.......ur thought process is excellent and there is Totally NO Fouling.
....................
...........let me tell all,.........i am old now...........success dont attract now,.......In my younger days ,whether clearance of Upsc,national chess & bridge..........i was B grade,......perhaps in single field it would have better........since i enter market 1990-91,and enjoyed TA learning.......may have got some AV success in trading,as i worked as small project manager,.....a project takes normally....2/3 yr..........i have seen different type of life,work in private-govt & then undertaking.........have seen manifestation of indian life.
Now comes -side,being trying to upper grade,........i am not at all best in anything,......as i was before computer age/given priority to understand human nature...........a not so good in representative skill.
Since 2003,.........due to some injury...........i have occational memory lapse problem.
i know what i was..............at present not even 10% of my memory/sharpness,......
so i sometime play chess/bridge to keep myself happy........probably i have not learnt any thing new apart from some job/finance in last 7 yr.
Similarly i feel achiever's curse ........as next generation potential /view on life different.
So i know........i am nobody now...........and help sometime someone knowledge........
................this fact of life i shall carry .........
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Oilman how to trade breakout? When to enter and exit. Entry is harder to identify before that hugh wide range bar,what are ur views? How to identify stocks for this method.I have learnt a lot from u views. Also exit take place on first sign of weakness I have learnt in hindsight, since am new to this style of trading. Additionally guide me on some additional material on this.
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http://www.traderji.com/data-feeds/4...paid-feed.html

http://www.traderji.com/options/1183...d-options.html

http://www.traderji.com/brokers-trad...gger-work.html

http://www.traderji.com/software/229...e-trading.html

http://www.traderji.com/software/425...tml#post457871
.........Answer to this..................................
yaap i believe & traded this .......basically potential intermediate term trade.
........
since u have asked.........see Chola......its move from 62/-------90/-- presently 150+
case 2.........MERK........build up 410/-.........presently 750
case 3........apollo hospital..........u can see all cases in EOD & weekly chart.
........................
basically its @potential resistance how its happening ........that chance of wide bar......and follow thrugh.
......................
Actually to study failure , u can see abhishek .......18/- break out attempt failed , presently 16/+.
..............................................
i have studied this through tradingmarkets.com in 2002
1] only 2 vendors i utilize........viratechindia & abatrossoftware/chartguru.......
i dont use any backfill etc,......brokers terminal 5paisa/ventura1/indiabulls i use.
Reason i reqd.......some bias/edge to trade, which r normally fulfilled .
thread 2, i dont trade option.........sorry no comments.
thread 3, stoploss trigger works well in indiabulls. for others 2, reverse order to be placed.4th one.........here cv's view is right.
define ur purpose,......i prefer meta/omni.
my experiment with adgeteod/mtpredictor not good.
since studying beyond technical analysis/creating some condition for biases r helpful.
I do some preliminary check through equitymaster.com
......
on experimental basis to create EDGE ,WAY TO TRADE........pl follow.
............
Personally i give immense stress on psychology/probabilistic analysis .
.......
Basic of breakout trade is some market condition.
Also some stock sp behavior.........this 2 i say as SET UP.
now in set up , u take a position............
mind it, its a potential........so failure of not happening is high........key word is how handling resistance,.......go to smaller time frame,......just see how things r unfolding.
.........so potential candidate has high probability or lower one ,u can follow.
BOOK loss on failed one,
Now the key.........while wide bar forming in your expected direction simply buy in BIG volume.
Example......see HPCL eod,........position at 340-350 to be added to make quickly 100/- per share.
.............
so i try to help though nobody can help one unless change happens from innerself.
Its the confidence.........one should have to take the trade ,actually price behavior study @one time frame lower than ur trading choice ,helps to understand whether potential Resistance can be broken or not.
read Ryan .............his site smarttrading.com........if u think to master MM
Be a student of FRM.......financial risk management
for simple learning KISS on risk management/money management.......be a member of paid site www.masteroftrading.com........where good pro teaches .
USE stator-afm as software if u like.
................
Hope it solves the problem to learn
No in trading , u dont have to be genius , but a copy master. Copying what is done already and try to protect u from already proven failed system IS major part for in journey of a trader.
Next is what fits u.when u get by using a system ,however peculiar may it look by others, if its give u consistent money atleast for 1 yr ,in real time trading,........that should be your edge,Now with discipline stick to that system in proven market condition.
AGAIN prepare another system .......not for its betterment, but which may work in future changed market condition.
Trading is not a place of innovation,already more than 120 yr enough experiment has clearly put in black & white.........what works.
Since u know chess,.......i shall quote great Mr B ,......who suggests playing against ladies is easy. as instead already studying/assimilating great works of past masters.......they obviously introduce.......new idea , which is basically 3rd grade.......can be easily defended by Masters.
So in present if u really want learn...........learn on how to play with volatility.
If experience & practice .........then its ART , but innovation is strictly unnecessary
To explain further,
why i loss in option,...........as i am ignorant.
Why i can not follow arbitrage...........i am poor to understand.
Then how i shall earn from market..........its because i have speculative directional idea, which, when confirmed by price is an oppurtunity .
So today i play for Arvind around 4% up ,taken entry..........get out @ 7% = 3% profit.
...........
This is because , by playing many yr chess ,i can find here lies my strength.
Chess has given me structured thought process, what to do NOW........its no way with intelligence.
As alternate scenario always to be evaluated ,........so change in situation(read market condition can be easily exploited)
IT teaches value of offence,as well as in case sudden scenario change u have switch in defensive mode(read stoploss activation)
Third thing it helps to use patience .......not to play aggressive ,when situation is not favourable.
..........Since it takes of 10 yr learning to play in national level.........it helps to start my journey to be new student of market ........for atleast 10yr.......being slow learner its my 20th yr.
....................
only drawback i find is stubborness .........
Hope it clarifies
Hi oilmann

you are a good trader, but not a great trader.
DEFINITELY.

As I know, you are an open minded person, you may also follow some times some scientific resources and lectures.
HAVE I NOT TOLD TO BE A BETTER COPYCAT.

In the past, most of the persons thought, that chess players have a higher level of intelligence than other peoples have and they thought, that chess players are doing every thing better than they do. You are an other living example to that, that this is a mare.
ITS MYTH


You do not most good in trading on what you are doing in trading.

YES ,U R RIGHT AGAIN SIR, IN MY YOUNGER DAYS WHEN I HAVE 25-30%RETURN, YR AFTER YR ,I DONT TALK........JUST EARN.


If I do five hours a day chess playing, I will get good on that. We can train old and young people on that subject and the results are always the same :
NO MAN IT REQD A STUDY OF ATLEAST 5 YR, CONSIDERING U R EXCEPTIONAL , TO PLAY IN COUNTRY'S NATIONAL LEVEL.

They get better on that subject and they do not get better on other subjects. It is a mare, that chess players are more intelligent on other subject, as they practice most time on chess playing.
So, traders should spent most on there times on trading and not on chess playing.

ITS TRUE

And if they spent there times on practicing in high volatile markets ( as you already recommended it and not only make nice words, to purpose hidden thoughts behind academic verses, which not even belong to there culture ) with different derivatives, they will become excellent on that and not in chess.

STILL I DOUBT,.....IT TAKES ME 2 YR STUDY & LEARN VOLATILITY PLAY ,WITH DIRECTIONAL BIAS.

SO THATS SUGGEST 1 YR ONE SHOULD LEARN.

.................................................. ........
REGARDS
(CAPITAL LETTER MYNE)
..........................As Dan mentioned that we all have certain set of traits / personalities and eventually we settle our trading methods to it.

For me too (I guess with most of the novice traders too) the initial failures could be attributed to the clash of thought process within self. There is no firmness to the thought that goes in the mind once you intiate a position, hence a short TF position would become a long term investment if the immediate move was against the position, similarly a long term call would be closed immediately looking at profits. And here it all starts - the chaos in the mind, which continues for long long time, until there is a concentrated and focussed effort to address it (which again I have rarely seen people try). The more the chaos, more deeper we go in and harder to come out.

Nevertheless, coming to the point of matching trading style / method to our personalitiy / traits is what we should aim first. But in my opinion things should not end here, infact start from here. It is not imposssible to be a multi facet trader. Yes it is not easier either. Refering to Oilman that we need to find different models / plans which may not be improvisation of our existing methods but altogether different. And this is what I call Research. Looking out constantly to new things, finding them, testing, improvising, customising and then making it suitable for ourselves or else then rejecting if it does not match our beliefs.

Coming to Dan's remarks (don't recollect where he had mentioned those) on my trading style, I do it all, from being long on stocks (primarily contrarian stocks- holding over 9 m - 1 year or beyond), do the momemtum plays, indulge in hedging strategies (through F&O), go directional with Index Futures, and also sometimes a raw specualtor by buying deep OTM stock options (aka jackpot options).

It has been a long journey friends, but I am happy that I could manage and still able to handle it quite effectively (...efficiently..I do not know).

tnsn2345
.................--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

www.disciplinedtrader.com is a good site to start.

books by Van tharp can also do well.
............
if nothing available READ way to trade,.......an excellent start pt.
Next.......read POP phantom of pit.
................................
Alternate idea......Believe it is not possible for normal human being.so u r taking extra care to learn it.Its because we associate ourself with success/win .Instead anchor u to follow discipline/systematic trading.
THIS is nothing but a writen documents .....for set up condition in market, entry trigger, exit at profit guidance/exit at loss if situation is not favourable.
Next study.........trade journal to create some guidance for behavior modification.
.............After this we join to RESEARCH as mentioned by great Tnsn2345 .
....................................................................................................
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#57
Some compilation from other traders
.................................................
Two more points that could assist you:

1) RESET YOUR MIND: Like any disciplined child, when we START our trading day we are well behaved i.e. the initial trades of the day will be governed by our set rules or entry / exit / stop loss etc. because our overnight revision and committment to adhere to our rules is afresh. As we get into more trades we tend to ignore rules, break them and by the end we realise that it was a messed up day. Hence after each few trades take a pause, reset your mind to the same level as it was at the beginning of the day. You may want to take this pause at a preset time then set alarm on your machine / mobile which will alert you to reset your mind. At this moment it could also help you exit immediately if you are holding a losing position due to non adherence of your rules.

2) RESET YOUR MONEY TO 100: Either winning or losing reset your trading amount to 100. You being down by 32% has immediately prompted your mind to analyse and send you a message that you are 1/3 down from your capital (you have mentioned that in your last post). This figure would play a pivotal role in your trading decisions all the times. Also the mind would always be tempted to recover all the lost amount in one trade (which does not happen). Hence reset your trading account balance to 100 (even if were in profits). Base your trading calls, quantity, risk-reward w.r.t. to 100. In other words, make all your daily calculations in % terms of your trading account balance rather than the starting capital. This will make life much easier and would help you to focus on your actions rather than on results. This may take some time and little practise but it is certainly not as hard as sticking to ones trading rules.

...............................
The best part I like about this man is his simplicity, flexibility and adaptibility. In my opinion these are the only things (in order) to be successful in any sphere of life (including trading). Some possess it naturally, some eventually get there but at the fag end of their lives, while most are 'determined' not to possess it.

Regards,

p.s.: It is easier to be complex and hard to be simple .
......................
Originally Posted by MarketRider
I think this is the main point to master, how to book profits...and another complicated thing is where ( at which point) to add in the winners...you dont want to add in the winning trade , just to see the trade reverse....
everybody has two types of trade only..
one type is wrong trade..here you can exit 1) through SL, 2) before SL hit, or 3) not exit by hoping that trade will move in your favour and in the process averaging at lower levels..the first two exit methods will keep your losses small, but the third method of averaging will kill you in the long run..because the loosing trade may move once in a while in your favour but most of the times it will force you to accept large losses, which quickly eat your trading capital. and most of times traders try to average...because no one wants to accept defeat or take losses, its human tendency..
second type of trade is winning trade..now trade moves in your direction..what most of the traders do now..at the first sign of reversing traders exit by pocketing their profit by moving trailing SL...only to see trade again reversed and goes higher and higher and higher or as may be the case...oh my GOD..itna mil jaata..haath se nikal gaya...mood kharab ho gaya....now next time you again in this situation...now you book profit only @ 50 % at the first sign of reversing, and what happens, the trade is going down the drain..and your next 50 % position will be either in very small profit or breakeven or in the red ...dragging overall trade in red... oh my GOD...isse accha toh pehle hi 100 % profit le lete..jitna mil raha tha theek toh tha..jyada ke chakkar mein aadha bhi gaya...

therefore those traders who master the art of booking maximum profit ie not run with small profit, they survive the longest run. My hats off to those traders. Everbody has some lossing trades, some winning trades. but those traders will survive only who take losses small and ride their winners till the end. but generally traders mentality is just opposite, they quickly take profits early (baad mein yeh bhi nahin milega mentality)..and take losses big (dont want to accept they just entered in a wrong trade , kabhi toh upper jayege mentality).

so only two rules to remember in trading ( but how many master these ?)
1) take your losses small - exit from your wrong trades quikly.
2) ride your winners - take maximum juice out of your winners.

Dear M'rider,

...because no one wants to accept defeat or take losses, its human tendency...
Simply be inhumane (and I am not joking) because the market is. This is what detached trading is all about. Be ruthless with the outcome of your trades be it profit or loss, you decide fast before market decides for you.

therefore those traders who master the art of booking maximum profit ie not run with small profit, they survive the longest run.
In my opinion they are speculators. I don't speculate. You said it right they may 'survive' (just survive) the longest. But this is the intermidiary state of a traders' life, what next? How does he evolve and grow?

2) ride your winners - take maximum juice out of your winners
Doesn't fit my scheme of thoughts 'now', so no intention of 'mastering' it. Because earlier when I wanted to do it, I mastered it but alongwith, I also mastered how to ride my losers, so effectively as you mentioned, I survived and survived, but just survived.


Regards,

p.s. Kindly excuse me if my statements are bit blunt. But that's how trading life is.
..................What i see here is trading intra day or jobbing its all about how you do it. Everybody has a mental outlook like a blueprint of what they have learnt and what they will implement while trading. Because once the market starts and numbers start rolling on the screen 80% of the brain is occupied to search through an oppertuinty of entry & then exit now everything gets mixed here ones knowledge,pre analysis,pre outlook,news & intution. Trading or jobbing its a natural process which goes on with adding skills and honing sharpening the skills it goes on never stops its a life long process. So what i say...is Trader is born as a trader and dies as a trader and is always a trader its all about how ones do it...after all experience is the biggest teacher and a great mentor

So I always had a sense of respect for traders & Jobbers and because of there approch towards there profession that respect will always remain.

so if somebody ask me whats trading for you....my reply will be simple

Trading....Thats part of life part of me..
.......................... think this is the main point to master, how to book profits...and another complicated thing is where ( at which point) to add in the winners...you dont want to add in the winning trade , just to see the trade reverse....
everybody has two types of trade only..
one type is wrong trade..here you can exit 1) through SL, 2) before SL hit, or 3) not exit by hoping that trade will move in your favour and in the process averaging at lower levels..the first two exit methods will keep your losses small, but the third method of averaging will kill you in the long run..because the loosing trade may move once in a while in your favour but most of the times it will force you to accept large losses, which quickly eat your trading capital. and most of times traders try to average...because no one wants to accept defeat or take losses, its human tendency..

second type of trade is winning trade..now trade moves in your direction..what most of the traders do now..at the first sign of reversing traders exit by pocketing their profit by moving trailing SL...only to see trade again reversed and goes higher and higher and higher or as may be the case...oh my GOD..itna mil jaata..haath se nikal gaya...mood kharab ho gaya....now next time you again in this situation...now you book profit only @ 50 % at the first sign of reversing, and what happens, the trade is going down the drain..and your next 50 % position will be either in very small profit or breakeven or in the red ...dragging overall trade in red... oh my GOD...isse accha toh pehle hi 100 % profit le lete..jitna mil raha tha theek toh tha..jyada ke chakkar mein aadha bhi gaya...

therefore those traders who master the art of booking maximum profit ie not run with small profit, they survive the longest run. My hats off to those traders. Everbody has some lossing trades, some winning trades. but those traders will survive only who take losses small and ride their winners till the end. but generally traders mentality is just opposite, they quickly take profits early (baad mein yeh bhi nahin milega mentality)..and take losses big (dont want to accept they just entered in a wrong trade , kabhi toh upper jayege mentality).

so only two rules to remember in trading ( but how many master these ?)
1) take your losses small - exit from your wrong trades quikly.
2) ride your winners - take maximum juice out of your winners.
.........................To me there is no iota of doubt that will allow me to ride my winners / to take maximum profit possible. I will not earn any thing free in the market.

And this is not the egoistic me which is saying this but the years of experience in this area. But for the simple reason as we hold on the habit of letting our winners ride (due to reasons other than our method/thought) we may also do the same with our losers. When you leave riding your winners to the market you are 'subconsiously learning' speculating. Today you have allowed your winner to ride, the same 'habit' will one day (just one day or just one trade) ride your loser to the place where you started or beyond that. So it's again 2-1-1+3-2+1-1+3-2+6-2+1-5....and it gets you nowhere.

SPECULATING IN TRADING IS DANGEROUS !!!! (Either with losses or with PROFITS)

In the randomness of the market there are times when you will have trends when you "KNOW" what will happen next. This is the only time to trade. There is no speculation here. When this trend/pattern gives away to randomness, it's TIME TO EXIT. Effectively you are in the market only at the start (or just after start) and are out (just before end) or at the end of the logical move that the trend / pattern is 'most certainly' likely to exhibit.

I can vouch that you can make lots and lots of money by being observant of the market most of the times, staying out of the market most of the times and in it only for a small period - when there is 'CERTAINITY' of the outcome.

Staying Out = Money 'Earned' (the simple old definition : 'money saved is money earned')

Coming to my style, I have had written broadly in another thread "Thoughts on Risk Management" which I am pasting here for your reference.

------->

I would like to explain in very simple terms and easy to understand by pro and novice et al.

Step I:

1) Decide on Portfolio Allocation: Portfolio allocation starts with defining Financial Objectives : How much money you would need and when? Your assets, liabilities, income and expenditure. This is a different subject altogether but still ultimately one (even a trader) has to start here.

(a) Variable (positive / negative): Equity, Real estate, Gold, F&O (Directional positions)
(b) Variable (positive but unsteady returns) : F&O (multilegged strategies primarily using Options)
(c) Fixed (positive) : FDs, NSCs, PPF etc

2) Decide on time frame to adjust Protfolio Allocation : Could be quarterly, half yearly or yearly. Depending on your portfolio performance, income from other sources/job/inheritance etc

Step II: Here I am zeroing on the aggressive part of portfolio allocation - Trading in Options:


1) Risk = Uncertainty of DESIRED outcome
2) Desired Outcome = (a) + (b)
(a) Primary Desired Outcome = For position taken at Time T0, price CHANGES in favour of position taken at Time T1
(b) Secondary Desired Outcome = MAGNITUDE of price change from P0 (at Time T0) to P1 (at Time T1)

Hence at Time T0 and Price P0, we need to define both, T1 and P1.

For a one market, one instrument, one trading plan trader (like me) T1 is sacrosant (FIXED), P1 is the only variable.

P1 is defined before trade initiation. P1 is defined both for positive outcome and for negative outcome.

Eg If I am buying Nifty Options @ time Time T0 at price P0 (Rs. 100), and defined is P1 is Rs. 95 (worst drawdown) or Rs. 107 (best outcome), my Risk is Rs. 5. (Rs. 250 for one lot).

If my trading capital (which is PART of my Portfolio) is say 10 L and I decide to RISK 2% per trade (this % is decided at the end of each week for the next week depending on the performance in the week gone by. The range of Risk / trade is between 1% to 4%), then I would buy 80 lots of Nifty Options.

At time T1, the probable outcome of Option prices could be:

93 : Exit fully (2.8% loss of trading capital : 80 x 50 x (-7) = -28000)
95 : Exit fully (2% loss of trading capital : 80 x 50 x (-5) = -20000)
97 : Exit fully (1.2% loss of trading capital : 80 x 50 x (-3) = -12000)
100: Exit fully (0% loss of trading capital : 80 x 50 x 0 = 0)
103: Exit 75% (0.9% profit to trading capital : 60 x 50 x (+3) = +9000)
106: Exit 50% (1.2% profit to trading capital : 40 x 50 x (+6) = + 12000)
109: Exit 25% (0.9% profit to trading capital : 20 x 50 X (+9) = +9000)

You would notice that if the price at Time T1 is less than 100 I exit fully and on some occasions the loss could be higher then anticipated 2% in this case if I exit at 93. But this margin of error in my risk management is acceptable since I exit at Time T1.

Secondly you would notice that at price levels > 100 (i.e. 103, 106, 109) I have partially exited. But these exit % are NOT RANDOM.

If the price is > 100 at Time T1, then this T1 becomes new T0 and the current price say 103 become new P0. From here I would again calculate new P1 (both worst drawdown and best outcome scenario) and accordingly adjust the quantity.

Step III: Later today/tomorrow...:

Regards,

------>

Step III:

Treat your profitable trade and non-profitable trades seperately. The MOMENT I close my profitable trade, the profit made on the trade flies off out of my trading capital account and rests in a different account which is my Variable - steady profit funding account, where I use multilegged Options strategy with low risk and average returns as the time frame used in these strategies is quite larger (almost 2 to 3 weeks or sometimes till near month expiry). Most common strategy is Covered Call, which may be covered in detail in some thread on this forum. Also sometimes, strangle or straddle or simply deep OTM call/put writing, depending on the market condition. HOWEVER here too, my RISK management techinique is quite similiar to the one mentioned in step II of trading naked options. i.e. P0 at T0 and defining P1 at T1. i.e. fundamentally though the strategy has changed as the funds are from different account, but RISK management is still the same.

Now as I keep withdrawing the profits from my trading capital account, and continue trading eventually my trading capital would tend to cease some point of time as there are some loss making trades which eats the trading capital. Yes this is what could happen eventually, hence with each passing period, my trade size reduces as my trading capital reduces. Though my Trading capital could tend to be zero it doesn't happen, WHY?

Because, remember adjustment in Portfolio Allocation (Step I), which I do every calendar quarter end. Hence basically I have to live with my trading capital for a period of 3 months, the better I trade I get more quantity to trade and then quantity decreases gradually. Profits keep going out.

When Portfolio Allocation adjustment happens at the quarter end, Trading Capital is top-uped up STRICLY on the basis of trading performance in the last quarter, hence if I started with 10 L trading capital which was reduced to 5L in three months and has generated profit of 8 L then I may be entitled to top up to 10 L or even higher depending on my overall Portfolio performance in the quarter gone by. Alternatively instead of 8 Lacs if the profit generated was 4 Lacs, then my trading capital can be top-uped to a max of 9 L it could be generally be lower viz, 8 L or 7 L as performance was NOT ACCEPTABLE.

STEP IV:
At the quarter end review and portfolio allocation adjustment, majority of the incremental profits generated by Trading, Variable (steady profit) strategy are allocated another account which funds conservative investment account. The investment made through this account essentially follow simple 100 days / 200 days moving averages which are held for longer period of time.

STEP V: THE PURPOSE!!!!!

Why do we do all this? i.e. trading, portfolio allocation, risk management etc. Do we want to grow our wealth to Eternity and leave it for someone after we are gone. NO.

I am working as a portfolio manager (or better still - a hedge fund manger) then I should be paid for my services. This is what precisely I do when I levy PMS charges every quarter end and take out that amount from the Portfolio to my 'personal account' for my personal consumption. The charges I levy are similar to any PMS charges which includes, fixed and performance linked payouts over a hurdle rate of return every quarter.

p.s. :

1) To maintain simplicity here I have not covered Portfolio performance parameters, weekly volatility (standard deviation) of portfolio etc. These are the parameters against which I evaluate my performance every month and do course correction. My remuneration is linked to some of these parameters.
2) All the above mentioned steps of Portfolio and trade management are documented in black and white for reference and remove conflict of interest.
3) For all different strategies and aspect of my wealth management, I have given them names and there are really funny names which makes it very easy to implement them.
4) As all actions (tradewise) are documented. I conduct a monthly audit of these documents and for actions inappropriate or outside the defined parameters of my scheme of managment, penalties are imposed, which include ban from trading for a period, cut in remuneration etc.

......................................
 
#59
Hi my friend

Your post are heavy to read in a row. Give us some time to go through and we can digest the value of it as there is so much inside.

DanPickUp
If we are not able to read in time, Just imagine how much hard work and time he might have put in it to write all these posts :lol:
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#60
Some idea i shall compile from Raunak who is selflessly teaching
...............................
All credits go to that man & problem if any to mine
.................................
List of Trading Strategies (This list will be updated as new strategies are posted).
Trading strategy using TA ...........by Raunak

Intraday Strategies

1. Rectangular breakout for Intraday Purpose (With AFL)
2. Using 5-Min Charts for Profit (Ascending triangle)
3. 15 - Minute Chart Breakout
4. 15 Min Intraday Setup
5. Classical Gap Setup for Intraday Trades
6. RSI and Bollinger Band Setup on 60 Minute Time Frame

Daily Strategies

1. Retangular Consolidation Pattern
2. Failed double top - Daily Pattern
3. 5 Day Momentum Trading Strategy (With AFL)
4. RSI Divergence Strategy using Daily Chart
5. Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy
6. Using a trending Indicator (ADX) efficiently
7. Trading Positive Divergence on Daily Time Frame
8. Swing Trading with MACD and Stochastics
9. Trading Setups by Apurv

Weekly Strategies

1. 2-3 Week Swing Trade Setup
2. 3-4 Days Swing Setup (With AFL)
3. EMA Cross Over System
4. Turtle Soup Plus One (With AFL to spot the pattern)

Other Useful Posts

1. Position Sizing in Investments
2. Importance of Data Validation and Data Accuracy
3. Importance of Getting in and Getting out of Trades
4. The "What If" Syndrome
5. Futures or Equities
6. Picking the right kind of stocks for Swing Trading
7. Setting Stop Losses
8. Position Sizing Techniques
9. Setting Stop Losses Using Historical Volatility
10. Focussed Approach versus Diversified Approach
................................................................................
I would certainly provide you with the kind of sources you want. But I'd like you to specify what you exactly want. As far as I am concerned, I use some standard setups for each time frame.

Weekly trades: I rely a lot on rectangle patterns clubbed with MACD, ADX, Trendlines, Volumes

Daily Trades: I rely on classic A-B-C pattern clubbed with MACD, Volumes and ADX

Intraday Trades: I use two setups (Rectangle pattern and Sure trend pattern) with MACD and MA.

As I explained the weekly setup in my previous post, I will be explaining the daily and intraday setups in the following posts.

So to understand what I do, you will require basic understanding in,

1)Candlesticks
2)Macd
3)Adx
4)Volumes
5)MA - Moving Averages
6)Basic technical patterns
7)Trendlines
................................................................
RECTANGULAR PATTERN ON WEEKLY BASIS


Tools – Candlestick/Bar Chart, ADX (14) and MACD Oscillator with standard settings

Trade Setup – The basics of this setup is very easy to understand. All you need to do is monitor selective stocks (high beta high volume) or the Index. The pattern to look out is usually a horizontal range in which the particular entity trades and then gives a breakout in either direction. This pattern is extremely effective and provides with good risk/reward ratio. I chose high beta stocks to cash in on the moves as quickly as possible.

Time Validity - I trade this pattern only on weekly charts. The reason behind this is simple. The more the data, the more reliable the pattern. Thus data and patterns on monthly charts are certainly more reliable than weekly chart. Some analysts do say that the weekly pattern should not extend beyond certain weeks. However, my research indicates that this condition may or may not hold true. Personally, I prefer the formation rather than the time frame.

When does it occur - This pattern can be found during consolidations, new highs and new lows. Some books do indicate that these patterns are typically consolidation patterns but I have found these patterns effective in nearly every situation.

How to trade it - Refer to the chart below. What we see is that HCC forms a bottom by forming a rectangle pattern. Usually there must be 4 points of contact in the pattern (as marked in the figure). However, in some extreme cases I have seen points stretching to 6-8. Volumes during the pattern should diminish and the NDI should be greater than PDI. Though NDI is greater than PDI, the stock instead of falling further consolidates in a range. This usually is the first clue for the stock validating the pattern. As the pattern develops and begin to show strength, the volumes, ADX (14) and PDI all start to pick up. This is usually the second clue and beyond this only the breakout confirmation is required. The breakout confirmation is usually recommended as validation of pattern breach. However, I personally prefer to see a gap up breach (check chart). I have found that gap up along with the previous clues mentioned works exceptionally well for this pattern. The stock usually runs up quite fast and doubles in near term. Though the gap up is rare, but if you find one, then latch on to it. Keep in mind the slope of MACD while buying. It should be positive and should have an upward bias.

Target - Add the range of the rectangle to the breaching level. This is the minimum target that can be achieved. The maximum cannot be predicted.

STOPLOSS - I would prefer not to refer to stop loss levels as every trader is different in having his own rules of money management. Please use your own rules for managing equity.

Usage - This pattern is effective in weekly and daily trades. However, I have also had considerable amount of success using it on intraday basis. If someone wants, I'll post how to use this in intraday setups.


__________________
Raunak Agarwal

What makes trading so fascinating and, at the same time, difficult to learn is that you really don't need lots of skills; you just need a genuine winning attitude.
..................................
RECTANGULAR PATTERN ON INTRADAY BASIS

This is the "heart" of my day trading. And I hope it will benefit all.

Tools – Candlestick/Bar Chart (5 Minutes), MACD Oscillator with standard settings, Support and Resistance levels on 5 Minute chart

Trade Setup – The basics of this setup is very easy to understand. All you need to do is monitor selective stocks (high beta high volume) or the Index. The pattern to look out is usually a horizontal range in which the particular entity trades and then gives a breakout in either direction. This pattern is extremely effective and has occurred nearly 70 times in the past 11 months on Nifty. On an average one can find at least 3-5 trading days in a month where this pattern forms. The average points to capture on one particular move are about 20-60. These figures on based on Nifty analysis. However, with 50 high beta futures stock, this pattern is bound to occur in many stocks on daily basis. Top 48 beta stocks exhibit this pattern atleast 1-2 times. So on different days you might get different stocks exhibiting this pattern.

Buy Setup – A typical buy setup occurs when the entity breaks out on the upside after trading in a horizontal range for most of the day. Buy at the closing of the ‘breakout’ candle and keep a stop loss at the low of the previous candle. MACD slope in this setup should largely be up. The risk reward ratio of this setup is extremely rewarding. Prior to the breakout ideally Nifty should have traded in the range of 25-35 points.

Sell Setup – A typical sell setup occurs when the entity breaks out on the downside after trading in a horizontal range for most of the day. Short at the closing of the ‘breakout’ candle and keep a stop loss at the high of the previous candle. MACD slope in this setup should largely be down. The risk reward ratio of this setup is extremely rewarding. Prior to the breakout ideally Nifty should have traded in the range of 25-35 points.

Important Notes – Look at the slope of MACD when you enter the trade. Also, always take a note of where prices are trading with respect to their support and resistance.

Have patience and you will see this pattern occurring regularly.


I am posting two out of many examples I have for NIFTY alone. If you want to see this for individual stocks then let me know.



__________________
Raunak Agarwal
 
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