Mother of All trading threads!- Stocks, Indices, Commodities and Currencies!

[nimish_rulz]

Hong Kong and China really going up. Rumours May export went up by 50%. China up 3% already. Hong Kong up 1.4% in last 15 mins from being 0.7% down.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Going to a hedge fund conference in London.Will update here what their views are! Lets see what they say.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Short Vijaya Bank Stop loss 63.35. First Target 58. Reason failed to maintain higher levels and closed at the bottom with high volumes. Clear indication of distribution. Stop can also be used at 62 by someone who is very risk averse and wants very low risk. If first target hit bring the trailing stop to 59.95.

Similar is the story with Bank of Baroda. 754 as the stop 720-700 Put can be bought for very short term. If cash breaches 754 put can be sold at a loss. This will give good return. As I prefer trading F&O due to high leverage nature this also means risk can be even higher. Or the other way 750 Call can be sold and should be covered at cash breaching 754.

 

[rajeabc]

Going to a hedge fund conference in London.Will update here what their views are! Lets see what they say.

hi nimish ,

HOw did the conference go ?

 

[nimish_rulz]

Short Vijaya Bank Stop loss 63.35. First Target 58. Reason failed to maintain higher levels and closed at the bottom with high volumes. Clear indication of distribution. Stop can also be used at 62 by someone who is very risk averse and wants very low risk. If first target hit bring the trailing stop to 59.95.

Similar is the story with Bank of Baroda. 754 as the stop 720-700 Put can be bought for very short term. If cash breaches 754 put can be sold at a loss. This will give good return. As I prefer trading F&O due to high leverage nature this also means risk can be even higher. Or the other way 750 Call can be sold and should be covered at cash breaching 754.

Shorted Vijaya Bank future @ 62.30 stop loss days high. Stopped out at 62.20 Break even trade. Looking to short below 61.90 now.

Stop moved to 62.20 to take care of the brokerage too.

 

[nimish_rulz]

hi nimish ,

HOw did the conference go ?

The conference was amazing. It was a stunning hotel with some dynamic traders and hedge fund managers. However, most of these hedge funds like they usually are as the name suggests market neutral. They were basically quants fund. They have been getting good returns over the period of last 4-5 years 2008 included.

So, I learnt a lot especially from these geeky traders who use signal processing etc to apply to a range of data set. The machines costs like 1.5 crore upwards. In short I realised if you are not an investor you are risking too much as these guys have amazing machines and amazing resources.

If you are young have savings and ready to dispose off your savings in the market best way is to invest medium term to long term. Don't waste your capital short term if you can't sit on the market 24/7.

Don't have 2 business at 1 that is trade and work somewhere else too. Trading needs dedication, regular hours spent to read news, read about markets, macros etc.

In short these hedge funds didn't have any view on the market as they just seek alpha and are not beta seekers. Hence they didn't say where the market will move in the short term. The fund managers and traders sounded very clever and when they were talking about high frequency trader the conversation became even more interesting. They discussed how they switched off their computers when dow tanked below 10,700 that day on flash crash. However they didn't say the reason for shutting the system was the market risk. They thrive on it their reason was that the time it takes the for the order to be sent to the exchange and then it gets displayed on their screen increased hence the delay became massive. A bit more than micro seconds they tade on. Because there was a massive delay in the data feed they said it was too risky to trade. Hence they quit the system. The reason for the delay they said was that when things like this happens there are lot of buy orders on various support levels. However when supports got taken out there were lot of order cancellation which takes time for the exchange to process and suddenly with massive buy sell orders and massive cancel orders the loop slowed down and hence the signals were getting a delay.

It would be interesting to learn more about quantitative trading and high frequency trading however, the expenditure is very huge. I would be interested to start a thread on it and may be find material to learn from if many people are interested as I am very much interested in learning these risk neutral strategies and also new ways to trade markets.

 

[SwingKing]

The conference was amazing. It was a stunning hotel with some dynamic traders and hedge fund managers. However, most of these hedge funds like they usually are as the name suggests market neutral. They were basically quants fund. They have been getting good returns over the period of last 4-5 years 2008 included.

So, I learnt a lot especially from these geeky traders who use signal processing etc to apply to a range of data set. The machines costs like 1.5 crore upwards. In short I realised if you are not an investor you are risking too much as these guys have amazing machines and amazing resources.

If you are young have savings and ready to dispose off your savings in the market best way is to invest medium term to long term. Don't waste your capital short term if you can't sit on the market 24/7.

Don't have 2 business at 1 that is trade and work somewhere else too. Trading needs dedication, regular hours spent to read news, read about markets, macros etc.

In short these hedge funds didn't have any view on the market as they just seek alpha and are not beta seekers. Hence they didn't say where the market will move in the short term. The fund managers and traders sounded very clever and when they were talking about high frequency trader the conversation became even more interesting. They discussed how they switched off their computers when dow tanked below 10,700 that day on flash crash. However they didn't say the reason for shutting the system was the market risk. They thrive on it their reason was that the time it takes the for the order to be sent to the exchange and then it gets displayed on their screen increased hence the delay became massive. A bit more than micro seconds they tade on. Because there was a massive delay in the data feed they said it was too risky to trade. Hence they quit the system. The reason for the delay they said was that when things like this happens there are lot of buy orders on various support levels. However when supports got taken out there were lot of order cancellation which takes time for the exchange to process and suddenly with massive buy sell orders and massive cancel orders the loop slowed down and hence the signals were getting a delay.

It would be interesting to learn more about quantitative trading and high frequency trading however, the expenditure is very huge. I would be interested to start a thread on it and may be find material to learn from if many people are interested as I am very much interested in learning these risk neutral strategies and also new ways to trade markets.

These are the similar kind of funds which went bankrupt in 2008. A salesman will never tell you that his product is not good, Same applies to these funds and their managers. I have many of my friends in such Quantitative funds and have heard what they say about how things work.

They might be profitable. I don't doubt that. But they also perceive themselves to be invincible. The thing is that the bell curve takes serious hit when we analyze the fund managers and their respective returns. Only handful of them are above average, rest lurk way below. This is the reality which never comes out. Incidentally, these guys are smooth talkers and convince their clients to be with them.

They might be having equipments, traders and the most advanced machines, yet I don't think anything beats well researched, well equipped and well planned trades and investments. This is what Benjamin Graham, Jack Schwagger, Jesse Livermore and Warren Buffet said. And I'd like to believe them.

Tc

 

[nimish_rulz]

These are the similar kind of funds which went bankrupt in 2008. A salesman will never tell you that his product is not good, Same applies to these funds and their managers. I have many of my friends in such Quantitative funds and have heard what they say about how things work.

They might be profitable. I don't doubt that. But they also perceive themselves to be invincible. The thing is that the bell curve takes serious hit when we analyze the fund managers and their respective returns. Only handful of them are above average, rest lurk way below. This is the reality which never comes out. Incidentally, these guys are smooth talkers and convince their clients to be with them.

They might be having equipments, traders and the most advanced machines, yet I don't think anything beats well researched, well equipped and well planned trades and investments. This is what Benjamin Graham, Jack Schwagger, Jesse Livermore and Warren Buffet said. And I'd like to believe them.

Tc

I agree hence with your view hence I said short term trading may not be very wise. It is good to invest with a longer horizon/ time frame.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Yesterday Dow closed very high with very less volumes. Infact the least in the past 2 weeks. Also it has closed at an interesting point top of the resistance line of the downward slopping trendline. I am attaching the chart here:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


I am expecting dow to fall since open. A few days back I said that dow will reclaim 10,000 and my target was more than obliged even though the market was at 9800 that time. Now I am expecting a fall going into friday. If we don't fall today I would take this as a trend reversal and will seriously consider going long. I still do not have any open positions. Although some Indian stocks are looking very good and I am finding myself difficult to stay on the sidelines but I have no option but to stay out.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Yesterday Dow closed very high with very less volumes. Infact the least in the past 2 weeks. Also it has closed at an interesting point top of the resistance line of the downward slopping trendline. I am attaching the chart here:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


I am expecting dow to fall since open. A few days back I said that dow will reclaim 10,000 and my target was more than obliged even though the market was at 9800 that time. Now I am expecting a fall going into friday. If we don't fall today I would take this as a trend reversal and will seriously consider going long. I still do not have any open positions. Although some Indian stocks are looking very good and I am finding myself difficult to stay on the sidelines but I have no option but to stay out.

My targets achieved on upside Wednesday there was a rally on the dow but it failed to keep the gains which were taken back of thursday. My expectation was a hit. Now today is Friday and I expect a bit of bad news late this evening and will look for a target of 10050 on the dow. I expect the dow to open around -100 and look to fill the gap created yesterday by gaping down. On the upside if 10,200 is taken out my target would be 10,351. I am still sticking my neck out and will like to believe we will hit 10,050 as that is what my system indicates. Volumes yesterday were low.

I expect a target of 10,700 beginning of july to mid july on the dow. As long as 9775 is not taken out.


And like I said before in my post on tuesday that friday will give us the trend decider and what a prediction it came out to be the dow is critically placed on the top of the downward slopping trendline. If we fall today we will continue in the bear market however, if we breach it we will go up.

How about that the whole day the markets were trading water the dow future especially now it looks like my target will be achieved before open.:clap: