markets for 02 july 09
as expected nifty fell till critical support at 4250 and bounced back from there. Secondly as expected also, nifty 3 times attempted to cross the critical intraday resistance at 4355 but each time failed to sustain above it just after touching this critical level. In spite of dow losing 82 points last night with weak european, latin american & australian markets, most of the asian markets showed resilience and closed in the +ve. Now with a strong dow on wednesday night dont be surprised to see flat to weak indian markets on thursday after initial rise. Markets always dance to the tune of powerful market operators & not as per the wishes of powerful investors.
For trading on thursday, in case nifty manages to decisively cross the critical resistance around 4355 and sustain above it then there is every possibility of a sharp up move towards 4400 or higher levels towards 4455. On wednesday, nifty having closed at 4341 & has successfully closed above the fibonacci 13 day moving average at 4334 and now is eyeing for the next fibonacci resistance of 21 dma placed at 4422, a successful negotiation of which may see another sharp up move.
Various intraday trading levels for thursday on the higher side are 4360,4383,4427,4455. On the lower side nifty may find strong support around 4320 to 4303 levels where strong buying support is likely to emerge. Dow is at nearly 120 +ve now, & may suddenly change after the closer of european markets after 9.30pm.
One should not expect any thing great from the budget on 6th july. However, since the markets now are in a overall bullish cycle, irrespective of the budget announcements on 6th july, most likely markets will move up after the budget from 7th july onwards. On every decline,keep on accumulating stocks of power generation, infra, oil & gas exploration & metals for good gains after the budget.
Technically, if one has look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that nifty has managed to close above both the 20 & 50 ema. Above this is the resistance line at 4355 coming from the recent top at 4440. So in case nifty manages to sustain above this resistance line, then only one can expect a sharp up move. Even the minor resistance at 4383 may not pose a major hurdle for nifty to move towards fibonacci resistance around 4422 levels. However the only negative aspect being nifty has closed around the high point of the day which although technically looks bullish, operators use it to bring down nifty to trap buyers. Secondly a +ve dow now a days sees a negative indian markets the next day again the likely action of dow operators. Not withstanding these operator infected actions, markets definitely look bullish.