Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
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markets for 02 july 09
as expected nifty fell till critical support at 4250 and bounced back from there. Secondly as expected also, nifty 3 times attempted to cross the critical intraday resistance at 4355 but each time failed to sustain above it just after touching this critical level. In spite of dow losing 82 points last night with weak european, latin american & australian markets, most of the asian markets showed resilience and closed in the +ve. Now with a strong dow on wednesday night dont be surprised to see flat to weak indian markets on thursday after initial rise. Markets always dance to the tune of powerful market operators & not as per the wishes of powerful investors.
For trading on thursday, in case nifty manages to decisively cross the critical resistance around 4355 and sustain above it then there is every possibility of a sharp up move towards 4400 or higher levels towards 4455. On wednesday, nifty having closed at 4341 & has successfully closed above the fibonacci 13 day moving average at 4334 and now is eyeing for the next fibonacci resistance of 21 dma placed at 4422, a successful negotiation of which may see another sharp up move.
Various intraday trading levels for thursday on the higher side are 4360,4383,4427,4455. On the lower side nifty may find strong support around 4320 to 4303 levels where strong buying support is likely to emerge. Dow is at nearly 120 +ve now, & may suddenly change after the closer of european markets after 9.30pm.
One should not expect any thing great from the budget on 6th july. However, since the markets now are in a overall bullish cycle, irrespective of the budget announcements on 6th july, most likely markets will move up after the budget from 7th july onwards. On every decline,keep on accumulating stocks of power generation, infra, oil & gas exploration & metals for good gains after the budget.
Technically, if one has look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that nifty has managed to close above both the 20 & 50 ema. Above this is the resistance line at 4355 coming from the recent top at 4440. So in case nifty manages to sustain above this resistance line, then only one can expect a sharp up move. Even the minor resistance at 4383 may not pose a major hurdle for nifty to move towards fibonacci resistance around 4422 levels. However the only negative aspect being nifty has closed around the high point of the day which although technically looks bullish, operators use it to bring down nifty to trap buyers. Secondly a +ve dow now a days sees a negative indian markets the next day again the likely action of dow operators. Not withstanding these operator infected actions, markets definitely look bullish.
as expected nifty fell till critical support at 4250 and bounced back from there. Secondly as expected also, nifty 3 times attempted to cross the critical intraday resistance at 4355 but each time failed to sustain above it just after touching this critical level. In spite of dow losing 82 points last night with weak european, latin american & australian markets, most of the asian markets showed resilience and closed in the +ve. Now with a strong dow on wednesday night dont be surprised to see flat to weak indian markets on thursday after initial rise. Markets always dance to the tune of powerful market operators & not as per the wishes of powerful investors.
For trading on thursday, in case nifty manages to decisively cross the critical resistance around 4355 and sustain above it then there is every possibility of a sharp up move towards 4400 or higher levels towards 4455. On wednesday, nifty having closed at 4341 & has successfully closed above the fibonacci 13 day moving average at 4334 and now is eyeing for the next fibonacci resistance of 21 dma placed at 4422, a successful negotiation of which may see another sharp up move.
Various intraday trading levels for thursday on the higher side are 4360,4383,4427,4455. On the lower side nifty may find strong support around 4320 to 4303 levels where strong buying support is likely to emerge. Dow is at nearly 120 +ve now, & may suddenly change after the closer of european markets after 9.30pm.
One should not expect any thing great from the budget on 6th july. However, since the markets now are in a overall bullish cycle, irrespective of the budget announcements on 6th july, most likely markets will move up after the budget from 7th july onwards. On every decline,keep on accumulating stocks of power generation, infra, oil & gas exploration & metals for good gains after the budget.
Technically, if one has look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that nifty has managed to close above both the 20 & 50 ema. Above this is the resistance line at 4355 coming from the recent top at 4440. So in case nifty manages to sustain above this resistance line, then only one can expect a sharp up move. Even the minor resistance at 4383 may not pose a major hurdle for nifty to move towards fibonacci resistance around 4422 levels. However the only negative aspect being nifty has closed around the high point of the day which although technically looks bullish, operators use it to bring down nifty to trap buyers. Secondly a +ve dow now a days sees a negative indian markets the next day again the likely action of dow operators. Not withstanding these operator infected actions, markets definitely look bullish.
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If you want to know how the operators manipulate the market, even stronger market like those of DOW JONES, see what they have done on 29/06/09 & 30/06/09.
You will appreciate what I am saying....
such a price change in such a small interval (mind it, this is not gap up/down opening).....ahhh
You will appreciate what I am saying....
such a price change in such a small interval (mind it, this is not gap up/down opening).....ahhh
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morning update at 8 am 02 july 09
as expected dow changed its direction after the closure of european markets & from a 130+ point gain, it fell to close at 57 point gain. European markets which had closed when dow was at its peak, were up by about 2% with uk ftse closing up by 2.1%. Brazil closed flat with only .15% gain. Asian markets have opened flat but may recover as the day progresses but may finally close flat to mixed at close.
For indian markets, expect a similar trading day like wednesday. Critical level at 4355 will continue to be a major hurdle sustaining above which only will bring some hope for nifty to move towards 4400+ levels. Since wednesdays low was around 4250 levels, any higher up move will generate tremendous pulling power to pull down nifty nearer to wednesdays lows of 4250 levels. So another range bound move with a negative to flat closing for nifty is on the cards with budget oriented sector specific up & down moves.
One should not expect any big bang announcements from the budget. Like election verdict surprised most investors, budget announcements may also surprise all in a reverse way. So it is wiser to buy a 4200 or 4100 put on market rise and with it buy a 4400 or 4500 call on market falls and carry both the call & put till 7th july to take advantage of any surprise big up or down move as was the case with election verdict day of 18th may. However long term investors should add long positions on every market decline to take advantage of the long term bullish market cycle.
as expected dow changed its direction after the closure of european markets & from a 130+ point gain, it fell to close at 57 point gain. European markets which had closed when dow was at its peak, were up by about 2% with uk ftse closing up by 2.1%. Brazil closed flat with only .15% gain. Asian markets have opened flat but may recover as the day progresses but may finally close flat to mixed at close.
For indian markets, expect a similar trading day like wednesday. Critical level at 4355 will continue to be a major hurdle sustaining above which only will bring some hope for nifty to move towards 4400+ levels. Since wednesdays low was around 4250 levels, any higher up move will generate tremendous pulling power to pull down nifty nearer to wednesdays lows of 4250 levels. So another range bound move with a negative to flat closing for nifty is on the cards with budget oriented sector specific up & down moves.
One should not expect any big bang announcements from the budget. Like election verdict surprised most investors, budget announcements may also surprise all in a reverse way. So it is wiser to buy a 4200 or 4100 put on market rise and with it buy a 4400 or 4500 call on market falls and carry both the call & put till 7th july to take advantage of any surprise big up or down move as was the case with election verdict day of 18th may. However long term investors should add long positions on every market decline to take advantage of the long term bullish market cycle.
markets for 03 july 09
dow falling by 180 points on thursday night is nothing uncommon & that too european markets blindly following dows fall to give up everything is quite obvious. Be sure to see another big up move by dow either this week or after their independence day holidays. Be sure to see some asian markets to open badly down, again blindly following overnight dow. But one thing to be kept in mind is that in case there is a gap down open for nifty & if nifty makes any low volume attempt to move towards 4250 levels, then make full use of this opportunity to buy budget oriented stocks, futures and 4300 to 4400 calls and hold these till 7th july.
For indian markets, any big fall before the budget induced by dow operators is a good buying opportunity. Traders are advised to initiate fresh trades after 1 pm only if nifty does not approach 4250.put holders may continue to hold the puts and buy 4400 or 4300 calls around nifty 4250 levels and carry both call & put till 7th july.
If one has a look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that nifty has a strong support around thursdays lows of 4288 a decisive breach of which may bring down nifty towards next support around 4262 or even 4250 levels which will be more than a 2% fall that should see good buying interest for the budget oriented stocks. As long as nifty does not decisively breach critical support at 4222 which is more than a 3% fall, there is no cause for panic. As being experienced daily even after breaching critical support or resistance nifty does a reverse action. Bright example is niftys breach of 4355 n number of times yesterday & to day to fall below it again. These critical breaches are generally induced by operator action to trigger stop losses or induce distress trades to trap weak hands.
For intraday trading on friday traders may trade the initial "gap fade" by buying the initial gap down if it opens below 2% or wait to initiate fresh trade after 1 pm only. From the low of 4141 to the high of 4240, nifty has strong fibonacci retracement supports at 50% around thursdays lows of 4288 and 62% around 4252 levels. During last two previous weeks, nifty had a weekly closing of 4375 on week ending 26th june and at 4313 for the week ending 19th june. So under worst of circumstances,& with budget on monday, nifty closing for this week end may not be that far off from these levels.
Beside dows fall on thursday, asian markets on friday morning will be impacted by the news of north korea testing nuclear missiles that will make indices of south korean, japan, taiwan, hong kong shiver like earlier cases of such tests. Secondly us markets having a holiday on friday may reduce the fear in the minds of asian traders of another operator driven dow fall on friday night. Chinese markets having gone up continuously for so many days are also likely to correct on friday. Nifty had closed at 4349 on thursday. So a 2% initial fall may bring it down till 4262 that should hold and any further fall from here will bring in buying interest.
dow falling by 180 points on thursday night is nothing uncommon & that too european markets blindly following dows fall to give up everything is quite obvious. Be sure to see another big up move by dow either this week or after their independence day holidays. Be sure to see some asian markets to open badly down, again blindly following overnight dow. But one thing to be kept in mind is that in case there is a gap down open for nifty & if nifty makes any low volume attempt to move towards 4250 levels, then make full use of this opportunity to buy budget oriented stocks, futures and 4300 to 4400 calls and hold these till 7th july.
For indian markets, any big fall before the budget induced by dow operators is a good buying opportunity. Traders are advised to initiate fresh trades after 1 pm only if nifty does not approach 4250.put holders may continue to hold the puts and buy 4400 or 4300 calls around nifty 4250 levels and carry both call & put till 7th july.
If one has a look at the hourly chart above, one will notice that nifty has a strong support around thursdays lows of 4288 a decisive breach of which may bring down nifty towards next support around 4262 or even 4250 levels which will be more than a 2% fall that should see good buying interest for the budget oriented stocks. As long as nifty does not decisively breach critical support at 4222 which is more than a 3% fall, there is no cause for panic. As being experienced daily even after breaching critical support or resistance nifty does a reverse action. Bright example is niftys breach of 4355 n number of times yesterday & to day to fall below it again. These critical breaches are generally induced by operator action to trigger stop losses or induce distress trades to trap weak hands.
For intraday trading on friday traders may trade the initial "gap fade" by buying the initial gap down if it opens below 2% or wait to initiate fresh trade after 1 pm only. From the low of 4141 to the high of 4240, nifty has strong fibonacci retracement supports at 50% around thursdays lows of 4288 and 62% around 4252 levels. During last two previous weeks, nifty had a weekly closing of 4375 on week ending 26th june and at 4313 for the week ending 19th june. So under worst of circumstances,& with budget on monday, nifty closing for this week end may not be that far off from these levels.
Beside dows fall on thursday, asian markets on friday morning will be impacted by the news of north korea testing nuclear missiles that will make indices of south korean, japan, taiwan, hong kong shiver like earlier cases of such tests. Secondly us markets having a holiday on friday may reduce the fear in the minds of asian traders of another operator driven dow fall on friday night. Chinese markets having gone up continuously for so many days are also likely to correct on friday. Nifty had closed at 4349 on thursday. So a 2% initial fall may bring it down till 4262 that should hold and any further fall from here will bring in buying interest.
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morning update at 8 am 03 july 09
dow finally closed down by 223 points before closing for a long week end & independence day holiday. A big fall in dow is mostly followed by big recovery. So on tuesday one should not be surprised to see a good recovery in us markets. European markets closed down between 2% to 3% with uk ftse closing down by 2.5%. Brazil fared better by closing down by only 1%. Asian markets as usual have opened weak but are much better than us &european markets & may remain week for the day.
For indian markets the initial fall may not be that big & may trade in line with some of the asian markets. Traders may wait for the markets to fall further say till about 4260 to 4250 or till 1 pm to enter buy orders for futures & calls to carry for next week along with yesterdays puts. Option traders may hold on to yesterdays 4300 or 4200 puts and as nifty falls towards or below 4270, buy 4400 or 4500 calls and carry both the call & the put in equal ratio for budget week.
Most likely markets will rise after the budget day, may be from 7th july 09 onwards. Long term investors should use this dow induced fall in markets to buy stocks in the likely budget oriented sectors of infrastructure, metals, oil & gas exploration & power stocks for good gains this year.
dow finally closed down by 223 points before closing for a long week end & independence day holiday. A big fall in dow is mostly followed by big recovery. So on tuesday one should not be surprised to see a good recovery in us markets. European markets closed down between 2% to 3% with uk ftse closing down by 2.5%. Brazil fared better by closing down by only 1%. Asian markets as usual have opened weak but are much better than us &european markets & may remain week for the day.
For indian markets the initial fall may not be that big & may trade in line with some of the asian markets. Traders may wait for the markets to fall further say till about 4260 to 4250 or till 1 pm to enter buy orders for futures & calls to carry for next week along with yesterdays puts. Option traders may hold on to yesterdays 4300 or 4200 puts and as nifty falls towards or below 4270, buy 4400 or 4500 calls and carry both the call & the put in equal ratio for budget week.
Most likely markets will rise after the budget day, may be from 7th july 09 onwards. Long term investors should use this dow induced fall in markets to buy stocks in the likely budget oriented sectors of infrastructure, metals, oil & gas exploration & power stocks for good gains this year.
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