Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

[amitrandive]

Bajaj-Auto


Daily Chart of Bajaj-Auto

Weekly trendlines/support resistance lines =Blue
Daily trendlines/support resistance lines =Yellow

Bajaj-Auto also in a continuous downtrend,bounced from support today
Is this a short covering or reversal need to see in time to come.

BajajAuto

Daily Chart of BajajAuto

Weekly Trendlines/Support/Resistance=Blue Colour
Daily Trendlines/Support/Resistance=Yellow Colour

Bajaj Auto recovering almost 75% of the losses,from its fall in Nov 2014.

Daily Chart of BajajAuto

Weekly Trendlines/Support/Resistance=Blue Colour
Daily Trendlines/Support/Resistance=Yellow Colour

Recovered all its loss of the fall since Nov 2014

 

[monkeybusiness]

Did you buy on any Technical trigger or ....?

No Amitji, just got feel at that time that BOB looks undervalued, so thought of keeping for say 3 to 6 months. My gut feel was it looks like bottom.

 

[indianbank]

Most of the public sector banks are trading near 52 week low...
but Private sector banks are bullish and trading near 52 week high....

if the trend continues then Public sector banks will be reaching more lows
and Private sector banks will be touching more highs....

 

[newuser_RK]

I am missing very good breakout moves by waiting for retracement. Today rk forging, mahindra CIE leaped up right under my nose. I was trying to get them on retracement which never came...

 

[indianbank]

mahindra CIE leaped up right under my nose. I was trying to get them on retracement which never came...

I hold This :thumb: Leading Mutual funds having position in this ....
Big bulls wont retrace they will fly like rocket....

 

[indianbank]

Gold is on bearish rally... this is just beginning of its Bearish rally.... And Indian rupee is going to break multi year resistance...
Weakening of Gold/Property value/ Chineese market are Possitive for India

 

[amitrandive]

I am missing very good breakout moves by waiting for retracement. Today rk forging, mahindra CIE leaped up right under my nose. I was trying to get them on retracement which never came...

Why don't you make up a simple decision of buying a stock either at breakout or at retracement?

Like I said earlier ,why keep crying over lost opportunities ???

Thousands of stocks breaking out.

Don't be miserable ,counting how many breakouts you missed.Try and develop a simple system.

Much better than sulking over lost opportunities.

Sometimes , good breakout stocks don't retrace for long periods.Either buy them on breakout or leave them alone.

A good post from a newbie

http://www.traderji.com/risk-money-management/97358-myth-50-50-chance-trade-win.html

Hii there..i am newbee to trading and would tend to agree with you with my little exposure to market..that its not 50 -50 for a naive trader...indeed the odds are against him..

But on the other hand if you ask a senior Pro..they would say that its near 50-50..even though they would still say its still not a favourable outcome after years of exp.

So if we do an experiment and let a computer trade instead of a human..what do you think will be the probability of Win /Loss...i assume you would agree that it would come out to be near 50-50..though may not be exactly the same...due to slippage issues..

So as i think..something in human nature is preventing it from coming close...i think its fear/greed....we as a new traders (me included)...just do the opposite...let the loss run and book the smallest profit....

We get into good positions and turn profits into loss...but i reckon even if we would have taken an opposite position , the result would have been the same..this boils down to only one thing..our psychology with profits/loss..

these are just views from a newbee here...
__________________
sspms2002

 

[amitrandive]

There are 3 types of markets and the market moves as under :

1) We understand the market moves and we trade and make money.

2) We think that we understand the market moves but market goes opposite our view...so we make a small stoploss.

3) There are some periods where we have no clue ,we dont understand what the heck the market is doing....in this period dont force our views on the market....step aside and let market do its own things till it becomes clear to you.

Most traders have problems with type 3...they insist that they should understand what the market is doing all the times....this is not possible...even the best traders are clueless in some period of time.

Smart_trade

:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[amitrandive]

Edge in market

Every trader needs edge to earn in market, which is some methodology for determining with reasonable accuracy the relative probability of the market price hitting your profit target before it hits your stop loss price. An edge is provided by a set of trading strategies, and a set of rules for when to use which trading strategies (briefly, when to follow a trend, when to fade a trend, and when to stay out.)

With in the forum you can find different systems/methods whether mine,ST da ,Saint..they all have there own pit falls

Knowing the pits in the method is very vital for our success and for arriving towards RISK management

The ability to achieve risk control and cash management will make the difference between a successful trader and an unsuccessful trader. If you ever have the opportunity to watch a successful trader, you will see that they worry more about risk and money management than they do about where the market is going or about predicting when the next big move will take place. They aren’t looking to tweak their indicator.

Successful trader only notices following points

1.They are worried about their risk on each trade. Is the trade being executed correctly?

2.How much of their total account is at risk? Are their stop loss orders set at the right price? At the price where it’s reasonably clear the market will probably move much further against them?

3.Is their position size appropriate to their account balance and the maximum loss they might incur, based on the price where their initial stop loss order would get them out of the trade (at a loss)? It’s getting those things right that makes or breaks a trader over many trades.

:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[TraderRavi]

Why don't you make up a simple decision of buying a stock either at breakout or at retracement?

Like I said earlier ,why keep crying over lost opportunities ???

Thousands of stocks breaking out.

Don't be miserable ,counting how many breakouts you missed.Try and develop a simple system.

Much better than sulking over lost opportunities.

Sometimes , good breakout stocks don't retrace for long periods.Either buy them on breakout or leave them alone.

A good post from a newbie

http://www.traderji.com/risk-money-management/97358-myth-50-50-chance-trade-win.html

amit , mostly seen you trading in nifty options, do you trade in stocks too , if yes intraday or swing or investing mode ?
BTW this thread is very good for breakout stocks.