Learning Delivery Trading and Investing

[oilman5]

Since its a Hot topic.....delivery based trading.........i come here for a comment.
Here i personally think.......in delivery based trading fundamental grasp is must.
let us talk........Trader A.......definitely can understand.........what is coming due to change in economy/sector/company management/order flow...........Now whether to get that understanding......he gets it through Delegation(buying report/exceptional individual who understand sector/individual company revival)........or through self analysis.......or buying seeing higher time frame chart.....in which MA showing particular inclination OR REL STRENGTH IN COMPARISON.........Mode may be different.......PURPOSE IS SEARCH FOR CANDIDATE OF LONG HAUL.
YES ITS REQD........LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT MIND FRAME THAN SHORT TERM TRADE.
simplest literature........i think of MARK BOUCHER.......trainer of Fund Manager.
Raunakji's view on SKILL development ......very imp.

"To sum it up, as I have quite often written elsewhere, it is the fund allocation which is the key for success even for day traders to create wealth. So even for a day trader or a jobber his bread may come from his daily activity, his butter will come from long TF investments / trades".....comments of TNSN2345..........should be aimed only after learning proper trade,not mixing different time frame,Discipline mastery(here i lagg).........
being laggard........my role only to be a learner.
Let this exceptional thread blossoms.

 

[rajputz]

Thanks for all the views. Its really very informative to look into once insight belief. Coming back to the topic, was my little reasearch on SUZLON worth or was just a waste of time. It was totally based on FA. Once that mistake is done i will then look for TA to mix it with FA.

 

[oilman5]

For Fa i think a start can be from this basic question

What are the basic steps to Define fundamental analysis to any stocks. For example lets say i like suzlon as a good share. And i want to invest in it. then what are the fundamentals value that i should look into it. Apart from news factor that comes everyday in buisness standards economic times etc.

Okay i can use the TA for trading purposes or refining the entry and exit point to some extent.

Here i am taking suzlon as a homework for me to be picked as a good delivery portfolio share. So what are the key terms i should consider to enter it or not to enter it.

Please share and i will search for it then.

........................................................................
no 1..........understanding in fundamental ..........whether Money shall come in the country.
No2.........if money comes , which sector.........which particular company??
no3.........whether u can make SWOT on that sector.....or if other good FA has
done for u,....but u can check that like auditor.
no4.......At what condition /visualisation major stake holder/promoter buy or selling that counter?
...................................
Time again i have told.........past data......has no value in fundamental .So modelling dont work in financial market,apart from M &A.
Presently a pure fundamental play probably Satyam.
...........Fundamental helps to create a value zone.......which may be useful to buy at big fall, provided u understand that fall is tempotary.

 

[asnavale]

Rajput bhai,

Thanks for opening the thread.

I am struggling to find the answer of the following:

"How to find out the resistance in advance"

i.e. without taking into consideration the previous high and only analysing the present scenario, how can we guess/find that the stock has become weak and very likely to go down in very recent future. What tools should be used in this analysis like momentum, volatility, volume etc.

Thanks

*******************************************

Thanks for the input oilman. I have been reading your posts for quite a long time and find them logical and knowledgable. Thanks for being around. Will look farword to learn from you.

Crown, as far as i know the way to know about the resistance and support can be: -

1. Using pivots on weekly monthly or daily charts.
2. Finding the regions or price points where price always resisted the upmove and pulled back, or from where always the support comes and price bounces back. For understanding i am posting a image below: -

Hope it helps....

**********************************************

Support and Resistance are levels from which the price bounces off during a trend.

In a downtrend the price tries to cross the resistance level and falls back repeatedly and eventually succeeds in going above it. The uptrend begins at that point.

Similarly in an uptrend the price repeatedly falls to the support level and bounces back till it finally falls below that level. Then the downtrend starts.

When resistance ends, the same level becomes support and vice-versa.

In most charts we see the support and resristance levels drawn as straight lines. But a straight line is a special case. The S/R lines are also curves which follow the price trend and be at a distance from the price line. Occasionally the price line touches this S/R line and bounces off. At the end of the trend the price line pierces the S/R line and trend reverses.

The Support curve starts with a pivot low while the Resistance curve starts from a pivot high. The S/R curves change with the acceleration of the price line. When price accelerates to higher levels a new support curve starts from that point. In case of downtrend when the price starts falling with a higher speed a new resistance line starts. Unless a support line is broken a resistance line will not start. Similarly a support curve starts only when a resistance line is broken. For each support level broken there will be a corresponding resistance. For each resistance line broken there will be corresponding support line.

The following charts of TATAMOTORS and TATASTEEL illustrate these points. These charts are different from the regular support/resistance charts we normally come across.

For TATASTEEL the support line was broken in second half of May 2010 and a resistance line appeared which was later broken in beginning of September 2010 and the stock is in uptrend now with a new support level. But the primary trend for TATASTEEL has started in March 2009 and is still intact. This can be seen in the third chart below.

In case of TATAMOTORS we see that no support line is broken so far. Therefore, the stock is in uptrend even now. In fact the uptrend for TATAMOTORS has started way back in March 2009 and is still intact.

When a new support or resistance line starts it follows the price line more closely than the previous line. At the end of the trend the Support or resistance line almost move together very close and finally the price line crosses the S/R line signalling the end of current trend. The latest support line in case of TATAMOTORS is closer to price line than others and is also steeper than the others. It is following the price line more closely and probably suggesting the last leg of uptrend for this stock. If this level is broken then we have to be cautious.

Using these Support and Resistance curves it is possible to predict the end of the trend with reasonable accuracy in trems of time as well as price. But most of the charting softwares like Metastock, AmiBroker, FCharts etc. do not have the capability to plot these predictive curves. We have to manually plot and find the target date and price.

The S/R curves have a lot to reveal and help in timing the entry and cexits. They also help us to plan our time horizon of investment.

I have not yet completely understood the interpretation of these curves. Whatever I have assimilated so far has been posted here.

-Anant

 

[DanPickUp]

Hi asnavale

Interesting post about S/R curves. You speak about Metastock and Amibroker. Did you ever check this plattform :

http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/index.htm

It is a plattform for programming freaks. Here you are able to program a file and put it in to the platform to use it to your good.

Maybe an idea for you to further improve your interesting S/R curves. Not all brokers allow this trading plattform. You may ask your broker, if he allows.

Just my two cents to your post.

Take care

DanPickUp

 

[rajputz]

Thanks anant for discussing and disclosing a new way to look at support and resistance. Can you enlighten us more on how to draw them and take conclusion from them about trend start and trend end. How are they to be made.

Frankly speaking all i see in the above chart is the mannualy drawn curves through one ppivot low to next pivot low and then drawing it in same proportion. Am i missing something here.

 

[asnavale]

Thanks anant for discussing and disclosing a new way to look at support and resistance. Can you enlighten us more on how to draw them and take conclusion from them about trend start and trend end. How are they to be made.

Frankly speaking all i see in the above chart is the mannualy drawn curves through one ppivot low to next pivot low and then drawing it in same proportion. Am i missing something here.

Hi Rajputz,

The S/R curves drawn in the charts I posted are not manually or arbitrarily drawn. These lines are produced in AmiBroker by an AFL.

Soon I will post the AFL here with its theory, usage, interpretations and limitations etc.

-Anant

 

[VJAY]

Hi Rajputz,

The S/R curves drawn in the charts I posted are not manually or arbitrarily drawn. These lines are produced in AmiBroker by an AFL.

Soon I will post the AFL here with its theory, usage, interpretations and limitations etc.

-Anant

Dear Anant,
You are one of the great person to me...anything you make/find you are shared with us...also helping many in afl's....I salute your selfless job here....Don't know words to thanks you.......

 

[asnavale]

Hi asnavale

Interesting post about S/R curves. You speak about Metastock and Amibroker. Did you ever check this plattform :

http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/index.htm

It is a plattform for programming freaks. Here you are able to program a file and put it in to the platform to use it to your good.

Maybe an idea for you to further improve your interesting S/R curves. Not all brokers allow this trading plattform. You may ask your broker, if he allows.

Just my two cents to your post.

Take care

DanPickUp

Hi Dan,

Thanks for the link. I already have the version 7 of Ninja Trader. But it is also another charting software. All charting software I have come across have fixed X-axis. What I mean is the X-axis is always TIME - days, weeks, months, hours, minutes or even seconds. The subdivision of the X-axis is also uniformly divided in terms of time units. We can not change the X-axis to any other variable. But for drawing the predictive S/R curves the X-axis has to be volume. I am trying Excel for the charting but it is a tedious job to have the data for each stock in Excel sheet and draw each chart. I have not been able to get a charting software which has the flexibility to change the X-axis to our choice.

-Anant

 

[rajputz]

Waiting for the afl anant as i am also the amibroker user...will help me...