Insight into why the NIFTY is probably heading down

[bunny]

The system which i am using has not given any hints of trend reversal, atleast until the previous closing, though there are few distress signs. However, this does mean that we are going down immediately from tomorrow. Many times, i have seen the distress being overcome in the followiing sessions.

Also, how reliable are doji and evening star patterns for an index like nifty? It may be less reliable for indices than stocks. My approach of analyzing is VSA, and the star candle is a super formation of the upthrust. To show any real weakness, the volume must be quite high on the star.

 

[SwingKing]

The system which i am using has not given any hints of trend reversal, atleast until the previous closing, though there are few distress signs. However, this does mean that we are going down immediately from tomorrow. Many times, i have seen the distress being overcome in the followiing sessions.

Also, how reliable are doji and evening star patterns for an index like nifty? It may be less reliable for indices than stocks. My approach of analyzing is VSA, and the star candle is a super formation of the upthrust. To show any real weakness, the volume must be quite high on the star.

Thanks for your constructive post bunny.

To be very honest Bunny, I have only researched on the validity of patterns in our Index. I haven't quite yet checked for the validity of Evening star/doji. But, I'll surely do that. Thanks for putting this forward.

Also, the evening star pattern is not complete yet. If tomorrow's close is below today's (by at least 0.5%), only then will the Evening star pattern be complete.

What I have posted is a coalition of many factors. And quite rightly, things in some ways do look neutral. Stress as you said does lie in the system presently. But whether that stress will turn into something bigger is eventually something no one knows. All I can do is wait for a few sessions. I'd particularly want 5360 (not a target;just a fib projection) to be taken out as that is important level according to price projections. If this happens I'll think of going long. But as of now I am very light on my positions. I don't focus on targets so I don't quite know what level the markets can reach.

 

[aditya14]

All I can do is wait for a few sessions. I'd particularly want 5360 (not a target;just a fib projection) to be taken out as that is important level according to price projections. If this happens I'll think of going long. But as of now I am very light on my positions. I don't focus on targets so I don't quite know what level the markets can reach.

I`ll go short around those levels..... which u mentioned to go long

 

[SwingKing]

I`ll go short around those levels..... which u mentioned to go long

There's a huge difference between "thinking" of going long and actually going long. I weigh my options dynamically. Whereas you with all due respect seem to have answers to all the nuances of the stock market.

Good Luck

 

[sudoku1]

Also, how reliable are doji and evening star patterns for an index like nifty? It may be less reliable for indices than stocks. My approach of analyzing is VSA, and the star candle is a super formation of the upthrust. To show any real weakness, the volume must be quite high on the star.

the most deadly & probably the most reliable i have come across is HANG MAN pattern !

 

[SwingKing]

the most deadly & probably the most reliable i have come across is HANG MAN pattern !

Thanks for this sudoku.

I'll get back with the effectiveness of doji and evening star in calling market tops.

Tc.

 

[aditya14]

I would love to see this thread in february

 

[pasha]

the most deadly & probably the most reliable i have come across is HANG MAN pattern !

Yes, I too feel that we have seen a peak for the next 10 days or so. There may be a small 300 point NF correction after which it will go back up.

 

[aditya14]

Yes, I too feel that we have seen a peak for the next 10 days or so. There may be a small 300 point NF correction after which it will go back up.

small and 300 do not go hand in hand

 

[mayavi99]

small and 300 do not go hand in hand

You are right Aditya. When it means 1.5 lakhs per nifty lot, how can it be small?