How much return do you expect ?

[priyanvada]

but in markets? I am no sure!

... I was too! ... Thats why I said a group of "same quality" intelligence...

My point is, its the information load management which decides the issue in today's world!... Computer always help an individual to process things with same speed as that of a group ... but its the subjective information processing where a group can do much better than an individual unless that individual is a Budhha!

 

[Capricorn]

...

... But one thing should be clear, ... No person on his own can surpass a group of same quality intellectuals working as a team with exchange of information ... The team will always have a chance to fare better than individual effort ...

If that were the case the global meltdown would never have happened.:lol:

Or probably their intellectual levels were in doubt :rofl:

Remember not more than 10 out of 100 win this game statistically. Probably the figure is even lesser.

 

[priyanvada]

If that were the case the global meltdown would never have happened.

Or probably their intellectual levels were in doubt :rofl:

Remember not more than 10 out of 100 win this game statistically. Probably the figure is even lesser.[ /QUOTE]

Remember in those 10 winners there is group of 5 working as a TEAM and in effect earning more individually than remaining 5 winner's individual scorecard!

... Statistics may misguide you by hiding further intricate truths inside a truth!

 

[Smart_trade]

Would like to share some thoughts....

1) It is a false notion that successful traders will not share their trading methods unless they stop working....Richard Dennis trained Turtles when he was at top of his trading career....somehow this is a false notion is spread by newsletter and trading systems vendors....there is joy of sharing something which may be useful to other people....seeing others successful is a joy no amount of money can give.....and Turtles made millions of dollars...and Richard Dennis also made millios on his trading....and even if one teaches his method openly,how many can successfully trade it ?

2) It is absolutely necessary that your method has an edge....or a positive mathematical expectation....if it doesnot have that,you will go broke by tading on that method....I feel amused when I read guys saying...follow the system,any system ,and you will make money...it is false...a method with negative mathematical expectation will make you go bankrupt "systematically".

3)Trading has never been a group actvity...it is highly indivisualistic ....even traders working for a trading firm or hedge fund...some are brilliant performers...some go broke. Trading psychology and money management is far more important than entry methods which most concentrate on...

4) Larry Williams had no great method/system when he won US trading championship...his success comes from the money management or position sizing. His systems give a profit factor of 1.4 :1 max but he trades the systems with position sizing with optimal f for the systems...optimal f for most of his systems come to about 25 %...how many traders ( even bold and successful ones) will have stomach to risk 25% of their capital on a single trade ? with this risk percentage a drawdown of 50-60% is common.

5) All of us will do very well to stop our search for "Holy Grail" ,90% accurate system,AFL etc and take a competent method which we are comfortable trading,backtest it,trade it with proper position sizing...and aim at making 60 % to 150 % of our trading account every year....that is a achievable target...rather than fantacising about how to make Rs 100 crores with Rs 15000 trading capital.....they are castles in the air....

Best wishes...

Smart_trade

 

[priyanvada]

I think I am wrong in my theory of working as a group
...
theoretically it may be better to work as a group for processing information, but practically it is almost impossible to construct a group which will satisfy theoretical requirements ...
1. Intellectual Levels
2. Freedom of expression

A. If we make group of mens only then first condition will be easily met and second will be hampered because ego's will come into picture ...

B. ]If we make group of womens only then second condition (freedom of expression) will be easily met but it is syat impossible that you will successful in getting high intellectual levels ... sad for me but TRUE!

C. If we have group mixed of men and women, then although we are satisfying both conditions but some it is high likely that some other unexpected reactions/interactions will happen ... and information processing will syat go astray!!

So I was very much completely wrong in my group theory of information processing!!

 

[priyanvada]

rather than fantacising about how to make Rs 100 crores with Rs 15000 trading capital.....they are castles in the air....

+1!

... But I think one should DO have a fascination within highest digestible limits to his brain!

 

[rajeshn2007]

+1!

... But I think one should DO have a fascination within highest digestible limits to his brain!

Yes , nothing wrong in having high limits. Aspire more !

 

[praveen taneja]

Would like to share some thoughts....

1) It is a false notion that successful traders will not share their trading methods unless they stop working....Richard Dennis trained Turtles when he was at top of his trading career....somehow this is a false notion is spread by newsletter and trading systems vendors....there is joy of sharing something which may be useful to other people....seeing others successful is a joy no amount of money can give.....and Turtles made millions of dollars...and Richard Dennis also made millios on his trading....and even if one teaches his method openly,how many can successfully trade it ?

2) It is absolutely necessary that your method has an edge....or a positive mathematical expectation....if it doesnot have that,you will go broke by tading on that method....I feel amused when I read guys saying...follow the system,any system ,and you will make money...it is false...a method with negative mathematical expectation will make you go bankrupt "systematically".

3)Trading has never been a group actvity...it is highly indivisualistic ....even traders working for a trading firm or hedge fund...some are brilliant performers...some go broke. Trading psychology and money management is far more important than entry methods which most concentrate on...

4) Larry Williams had no great method/system when he won US trading championship...his success comes from the money management or position sizing. His systems give a profit factor of 1.4 :1 max but he trades the systems with position sizing with optimal f for the systems...optimal f for most of his systems come to about 25 %...how many traders ( even bold and successful ones) will have stomach to risk 25% of their capital on a single trade ? with this risk percentage a drawdown of 50-60% is common.

5) All of us will do very well to stop our search for "Holy Grail" ,90% accurate system,AFL etc and take a competent method which we are comfortable trading,backtest it,trade it with proper position sizing...and aim at making 60 % to 150 % of our trading account every year....that is a achievable target...rather than fantacising about how to make Rs 100 crores with Rs 15000 trading capital.....they are castles in the air....

Best wishes...

Smart_trade

SUPERB ST BRO SALUTE TO YOU FOR THE SO GOOD SHARING OF THOUGHTS:thumb:

 

[priyanvada]

Larry Williams had no great method/system when he won US trading championship...his success comes from the money management or position sizing. His systems give a profit factor of 1.4 :1 max but he trades the systems with position sizing with optimal f for the systems...optimal f for most of his systems come to about 25 %...how many traders ( even bold and successful ones) will have stomach to risk 25% of their capital on a single trade ? with this risk percentage a drawdown of 50-60% is common.

... Can someone explain what is optimal f?

 

[rajeshn2007]

Optimal f (optimal fixed fraction) - method of estimating the optimal % of risk has been improved by Raplh Vince. Using the optimal f strategy, you can optimize your system for the variable f (with "f" being the amount of capital invested in each trade) so that your system achieves the highest net profit (or TWR as defined by R. Vince.)

Optimal f is calculated the optimal value of f is independent of the order in which the trades take place. Changing the order or sequence of trades does not affect the final out-come. Most people think that the optimal fixed fraction is that percentage of your total stake to bet. This is absolutely false. To define how much shares you have to trade we use the next formula:


Number_of_shares = (Optimal_F * Current_Capital / starting_risk_per_unity_of_assets)/Security_Price



where starting risk = maximal loss at trade(in %).

Example:

Current Capital - 25000

Security Price - 100 (hindalco?)

Optimal f - 0.30 (it's calculated on the basis of the historical data)

Maximal Loss at trade - 50% (it's calculated on the basis of the historical data)

In this case you can buy (0.3 * 25000/0.5)/100 = 150 shares.