How gap-ups or downs are created in NIFTY futures?

toocool

Well-Known Member
#31
In another forum on 25/08/2013, this guy said that he watches news events of the day to make sense of the outlook of the market for the day, the answer I given to him is copy pasted below, I think it fits for the thread as well....... , do not miss both the videos, it should blow your mind, it blown mine few years ago, 1st video is an irrefutable proof that there are more than 1 universe and we mere live in the form of energy, we are found in this world only because of our /others consciousness, the moment consciousness stop seeing, we(our body atoms are infinitely in the whole universe) are in superposition

PhD Bill Williams didn't sleep for 7 straight days when he found out the connection between Ohio river and cotton prices of last 100 years............. And after I seen this video, I didn't sleep 2-3 days........ Here it goes


25/08/2013
ashish bhai

do you believe in god?

i don't , because god dont exist , we create it , because as a curious animals as we are (the humans) we need answers to stuff we observe , and if there is no answers , it doesnt make any sense to our brain, we feel unsatisfied ,we feel uneasiness , just doesnt feel right , so to pacify the mind from the biggest question ,"the existence of universe and earth" god was created in the minds by our pre historic ancestors

same way , we cannot accept the reality that markets are totally natural, random and chaotic(though there is also order in this randomness ,which we can see by technical analysis ) so our minds has to make up for the un-explainable events and moves in the markets , for that we look for news that may have triggered the moves , which basically is not a fact , we create our own reality , that reality also reflects in the prices(for very very short term from 0 minutes to max 3-4 hours without violation of major support resistance) ,by the people who think that , yes certain news ,if comes , will be positive/negative for the markets , and those people on the arrival of the news take their chances to make position at the time , when you see some up or down movement of the markets , but that move mostly is very very short lived and lasts upto from 0 minutes to maximum 2-4 hours(biggest of news items ,and mind you very very rare ) , when those stupid people have done what the thought they ought to , markets does just what it ought to .but its mostly seen that in those times too markets do not take out the major support resistances created on the charts , (the main trends never change with news )

not only this in real life also we create reality for ourselves , Stephen hawking talked about it in his book "The Grand Design" , though this was observed by scientist much earlier , in the field of quantum physics , and in turn in our universe and in our life

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfPeprQ7oGc

watch this amazing video , on how we create a new reality

also do you know the fractal information of the cotton prices daily chart for some 100 years data(which covered 2 world wars , depressions , progressions , droughts and what not), , has been found exactly same as the fractal information , of the Mississippi , Ohio rivers upto the 3 or 4 decimal points , which means the price is a function of the natural movements of the markets regardless of any news , or economics of a country , watch a phd GUY BILL WILLIAMS TALK ABOUT IT in the video below , watch upto atleast 22-25 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tTq12QoaMA
 
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toocool

Well-Known Member
#32




These are the unfilled gaps in dowjones daily /weekly charts........ I have no idea which countries fii and outer country forces gone in American financial system and whether they cornered huge quantities in delivery or in futures and options to manipylatingly create these gaps

Point to be noted is that probably in most gap dates Futures and options didn't exist even in America and mind you those are still outstanding gaps....... Total 11..... What kind of financial powers are needed to create and maintain those gaps? I think you get the point :p............... Fii's in America are so powerful then their Dii's that the gaps could not be filled?
 

onlinegtrash

Well-Known Member
#33
@toocool
what do you call chaos?

what do you call market action for today?
please explain then i will revert :)
What I meant is its not chaos or random or unexpected event.


my version of NIFTY UNIVERSE goes something like this:
Todays fall is not collective action of million traders but by half-a-dozen big guys.
Looking at the sharp fall, I feel its well planned event.

I think these guys who squared off their big long position today *KNEW* today's RBI results yesterday,
exploited the FEDs good news to build a fabulous short position yesterday.

you might say hind sight is 20-20... and any one can fit a story for the events,
but look at the rapid fall of prices eating through the order book...
It requires deliberate planned assault on bulls with enough fire power.

If you are a big guy with enough fire power how dumb should you be to liquidate so foolishly in one single go as hastily as possible,
unless you have 5 times bigger short position waiting to turn into profits!

----
Simultaneously I agree all the gaps you mentioned in DJI could be totally a natural phenomenon... but that doesn't eliminate the possibility of above story.
just like death is a natural phenomenon but some times murder could be well planned and appear as natural death!.
----

well, is today's event a murder or natural death!?
am biased towards murder bcoz of the *ultra quick* *steep* and *powerful move*...

It could be just a natural move too !
dot-com bubble, real-estate bubble, subprime bubble... these are natural ones,
because they all have classic bubble phases and bubble pop phases... but today's
move looks like a ninja move assault towards bull!

----
I could be wrong and paranoid... but am just sharing my thoughts.
 
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Relish

Well-Known Member
#34
I read thread; gr8 information. I had question how we can consider gap is filled or not (either gap up or gap down) ? some TA telling other thread that last year freak trade(5900 - 4800 down) is filled? elaborate with example Thank's
 
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DSM

Well-Known Member
#35
Online, Interesting thoughts and ideas exchanged here. Started with the 'why of Gap' and the subsequent discussion has been deep and meaningful....

You are right in saying that this big fall is result of a few players unloading their positions.... and that you say they would have build up a short position.
Hmmm... something to think about.

To be frank, while I was waiting for a big fall earlier to today's announcement - which did not happen, looking at how the market had run up without a fall and allowing for a view that there could be fireworks to take the market higher, buying puts seemed to be a good reward trade today. I had planned to buy the puts before the announcements, but was not sure as to when it was, and missed this trade.

The point I am trying to make here, is that big guys were prepared... Maybe holding on long futures in case of good news, or else being prepared to unload and make a quick buy having bought puts as you say.

Today's RBI policy announcement was a market defining moment. And traders are expected to be prepared - either way, which would mean even if they were not in the know about what would happen - they knew before hand and were prepared with their plans as to what they had to do in case the news was good or bad!

Reading yours and TooCool's post and writing this, has helped clear my thoughts as well.

Thanks.

@toocool

What I meant is its not chaos or random or unexpected event.


my version of NIFTY UNIVERSE goes something like this:
Todays fall is not collective action of million traders but by half-a-dozen big guys.
Looking at the sharp fall, I feel its well planned event.

I think these guys who squared off their big long position *KNEW* tomo's RBI results,
exploited the FEDs good news to build a fabulous short position yesterday.

you might say hind sight is 20-20... and any one can fit a story for the events,
but look at the rapid fall of prices eating through the order book...
It requires deliberate planned assault on bulls with enough fire power.

If you are a big guy with enough fire power how dumb should you be to liquidate so foolishly in one single go as hastily as possible,
unless you have 5 times bigger short position waiting to turn into profits!

----
Simultaneously I agree all the gaps you mentioned in DJI could be totally a natural phenomenon... but that doesn't eliminate the possibility of above story.
just like death is a natural phenomenon but some times murder could be well planned and appear as natural death!.
----

well, is today's event a murder or natural death!?
am biased towards murder bcoz of the *ultra quick* *steep* and *powerful move*...

It could be just a natural move too !
dot-com bubble, real-estate bubble, subprime bubble... these are natural ones,
because they all have classic bubble phases and bubble pop phases... but today's
move looks like a ninja move assault towards bull!

----
I could be wrong and paranoid... but am just sharing my thoughts.
 

toocool

Well-Known Member
#36








you can see in 1st chart above that at 11.00 am news came , i do not care what the freaking news was , it just feels like news created the crash (only upto the extent of 1 hour exactly 1 hour that's it.........full stop) refer my above posts (only for extreme short term stupid new hungry people come to try to discount the news, the biggest of the news can only shake the markets for maximum of 0-3-4 hours ...........period).

the news did not change the trend ................you can ask any daily chart expert , if even one person says that on daily chart the trend has turned down

markets already had rallied how many points ??

1000 points dear sir ....................when was the last time markets rallied 1000 points straight? whats the freaking big deal that markets fell 200 points after 1000 points rally? can you tell me ?

where did it exactly stop ..................the previous consolidation which now has become support ................did it not? not only that it rallied more than 100 points from the low (nifty future low after news 5950 ............high 6059) is it not sir?

you want practical ..................hell yeah i will give you live practical examples in the markets

now i know if markets fell monday-tuesday , you will come back saying that markets turned on the news day ..............i know that you will say that. however there is no freaking way this market can be said to be bearish as of now , hell yeah it can do whatever it wants , i have taken long @5972 , and took home half home , but no no no dear sir , the markets has not turned bearish as of now if it does that later , it very well can and my profits can turn into loss , but its a part of the game . i challenge if anybody is so sure that this markets have turned already he can have a bet with me of rs 1000 , either i will pay him or he will pay me . its open to anybody but challenge has to be started and accepted till maximum by tomorrow by 11.00 pm , rules of the game can be set by the people participated in this thread already , only.

even by making a challenge , i do not intend to say that i know what is gonna happen next , all i am saying is that markets has not turned down yet , and this 1000 rs challenge is only like a calculated trade for me , i can win it or lose it , i and the Challenger both have equal chances
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#37
Another great post here. TooCool, if you do open a new thread on Technical's - I will be the first subscriber. Your thinking is logical and clear.

BTW, having said earlier that I was looking to buy puts (before policy announcement) because it offered a good RR trade, I have bought calls later today looking at the chart patterns. My view is bullish till a certain level. Rightly said - there is nothing in the charts says that the trend has changed. And again, just as you - I agree that the markets can go anywhere, so have bought calls knowing what my max loss can be, I think the market has possibility to go high above the high of today.

Let's see...










you can see in 1st chart above that at 11.00 am news came , i do not care what the freaking news was , it just feels like news created the crash (only upto the extent of 1 hour exactly 1 hour that's it.........full stop) refer my above posts (only for extreme short term stupid new hungry people come to try to discount the news, the biggest of the news can only shake the markets for maximum of 0-3-4 hours ...........period).

the news did not change the trend ................you can ask any daily chart expert , if even one person says that on daily chart the trend has turned down

markets already had rallied how many points ??

1000 points dear sir ....................when was the last time markets rallied 1000 points straight? whats the freaking big deal that markets fell 200 points after 1000 points rally? can you tell me ?

where did it exactly stop ..................the previous consolidation which now has become support ................did it not? not only that it rallied more than 100 points from the low (nifty future low after news 5950 ............high 6059) is it not sir?

you want practical ..................hell yeah i will give you live practical examples in the markets

now i know if markets fell monday-tuesday , you will come back saying that markets turned on the news day ..............i know that you will say that. however there is no freaking way this market can be said to be bearish as of now , hell yeah it can do whatever it wants , i have taken long @5972 , and took home half home , but no no no dear sir , the markets has not turned bearish as of now if it does that later , it very well can and my profits can turn into loss , but its a part of the game . i challenge if anybody is so sure that this markets have turned already he can have a bet with me of rs 1000 , either i will pay him or he will pay me . its open to anybody but challenge has to be started and accepted till maximum by tomorrow by 11.00 pm , rules of the game can be set by the people participated in this thread already , only.

even by making a challenge , i do not intend to say that i know what is gonna happen next , all i am saying is that markets has not turned down yet , and this 1000 rs challenge is only like a calculated trade for me , i can win it or lose it , i and the Challenger both have equal chances
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
#38
Well, intensive and intellectual discussion is going on here. As I do not understand every thing, even watching some videos, I thought I am going to take just a chart even from the internet and I thought then I will find chaos and what ever. Now I had a look at the following chart and by my best will and imagination, I do not see any chaos in this market or chart:



Any way: As told, I may do not get the point, so that doe's not mean that others are wrong. No way about that. Just my two cents as I do not understand those chaos and what ever theory and quickly stopped thinking about it.

About the bet: I guess a PayPal account will be the most easy thing, as who ever from what ever country can fill it up through Credit Card payment. :D

Have a nice weekend / DanPickUp
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#39
Dan, Maybe there are guys who do not understand chaos theory but make money, while there may be others guys - who understand chaos theory but do not make any.

:)

Intellectual debate is never ending as two people are looking at the same thing - but from a different viewpoint. Some may say that there is no such thing as darkness - it is only absence of light... some will prefer to say the glass if half full, and other half empty. A smart trader, will however take the glass, and drink the water or beer (choose your pick) - and switch on the light to dispel the darkness and let the debate go on....

Cheers, and have a great weekend.

Well, intensive and intellectual discussion is going on here. As I do not understand every thing, even watching some videos, I thought I am going to take just a chart even from the internet and I thought then I will find chaos and what ever. Now I had a look at the following chart and by my best will and imagination, I do not see any chaos in this market or chart:



Any way: As told, I may do not get the point, so that doe's not mean that others are wrong. No way about that. Just my two cents as I do not understand those chaos and what ever theory and quickly stopped thinking about it.

About the bet: I guess a PayPal account will be the most easy thing, as who ever from what ever country can fill it up through Credit Card payment. :D

Have a nice weekend / DanPickUp
 

onlinegtrash

Well-Known Member
#40
@toocool
you are like psychotherapist for a paranoid trader :)
am like paranoid trader driving psychotherapist nuts !

Thanks for your input and charts, toocool !

Even if one has all the fire power to manipulate the market,
he would never overstep the most liquid regions such channel boundaries,
long time frame support and resistance. The reason for this is simple
its not profitable to plow further burning your money as you already
got the required liquidity at the boundaries!

So a good manipulation should respect traditional TA and price boundaries,
except the moves should ultra fast to keep the trapped ones trapped and
intelligent ones away from the move!

So today's action will always appear as a subset of natural TA move ;)
one more note: I don't believe news events cause the move...
big guys just use big events to plan their move.... its just correlation most of the time not causation.
-----------

Just to lighten up... here is a totally unrelated story:

Patient goes doctor and says: "doctor am dead, I ve all the symptoms of a dead person, please help me"
Doctor: "no you are not... blah blah"
after explaining for an hour finally doctors plans a practical demo, picks a needle
and pricks the guy and says "do you see blood, then you should be alive then"...
Patient : "doctor.... I was wrong and you were right...."

Doctor is elated by his success... and says " well , so are you convinced you are alive?"

Paitent:"yes doctor... am convinced that dead people bleed" !

-------

he he... I don't want to be that patient :) and yes everything you said makes sense!

happy week end to everyone!
 

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