Gold
- Thread starter praveen taneja
- Start date
Yes there is no logic of this gold-currency hedge or gold-currency pair trade whatever you would like to call. Fundamentals of currency points to long on currency, may be due to recent comex gold and inr's inverse relation he may have tempted to short usdinr but you can see from the last 2 days inr is rangebound so this theory doesn't fits for long term(intraday may be possible).
Now coming to gold, some retailers and small speculator were short so we have seen pullback in gold(fact by reports) and now when the same retailers who are entering gold near 28000 level on physical gold will see the same fate, retailers ne 29-30 k levels pe bhi jam k buying ki thi gold ki
Conditions are that those who have taken loan from gold financing company on 30-32 levels are now giving hard time to these companies(paise chukane hain ki nahi chukane hain, remember home loan bubble in US).
Currency 50 aane ki agar expectations hain to we need some radical shift in our indian policy, abhi haalat ye hain ki posco, mittals and wallmart are exiting from our economy.
You surprised me again PT sir.
Now coming to gold, some retailers and small speculator were short so we have seen pullback in gold(fact by reports) and now when the same retailers who are entering gold near 28000 level on physical gold will see the same fate, retailers ne 29-30 k levels pe bhi jam k buying ki thi gold ki
Conditions are that those who have taken loan from gold financing company on 30-32 levels are now giving hard time to these companies(paise chukane hain ki nahi chukane hain, remember home loan bubble in US)
.Currency 50 aane ki agar expectations hain to we need some radical shift in our indian policy, abhi haalat ye hain ki posco, mittals and wallmart are exiting from our economy.
You surprised me again PT sir.
On $ crashing its on card and US and FED doing there best to give clean exit to its financial companies by making $ up and all mkts with Dow up or Data which is coming from US nobody even Europeans are not interested to buy $ and sticking to euro
Pure tukka view more chance of me going wrong Jai Ram Ji ki
First of all Gold company first take real value of gold mean for 50000 ornaments they value 40000 and on 40000 they give 30000that too on 12%+ so they are niether in any problem nor have worry even if Gold reach 20k they have Gold in hand as person who took loan must be paying EMI even if it is few they are in profit
On $ crashing its on card and US and FED doing there best to give clean exit to its financial companies by making $ up and all mkts with Dow up or Data which is coming from US nobody even Europeans are not interested to buy $ and sticking to euro Pure tukka view more chance of me going wrong Jai Ram Ji ki
On $ crashing its on card and US and FED doing there best to give clean exit to its financial companies by making $ up and all mkts with Dow up or Data which is coming from US nobody even Europeans are not interested to buy $ and sticking to euro
Pure tukka view more chance of me going wrong Jai Ram Ji ki
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
About gold companies read this article you will know why i have drawn similarity with home prices.
http://www.moneylife.in/article/if-...s-their-borrowers-and-their-lenders/8380.html
Arguments which I liked is purity concept and auction selling possibility which can easily take away the 30% cushion margin in falling market.
Coming to USD, dollar is the king whether you like it or not, every country is stuffed with USD in their reserves, and if you are non-believer of usd economy then you are believer of emerging economy and ultimately be supporter of USDINR appreciation, so being an Indian investor we should be ready anytime for near 20% cut in INR terms. So why bothering risking money on inflated levels and doing this tukka stuff
Its better to wait on sidelines and see how the picture evolves.
Anyways all the best with your view.:thumb:
:clapping:
I would say only one thing........
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
About gold companies read this article you will know why i have drawn similarity with home prices.
http://www.moneylife.in/article/if-...s-their-borrowers-and-their-lenders/8380.html
Arguments which I liked is purity concept and auction selling possibility which can easily take away the 30% cushion margin in falling market.
Coming to USD, dollar is the king whether you like it or not, every country is stuffed with USD in their reserves, and if you are non-believer of usd economy then you are believer of emerging economy and ultimately be supporter of USDINR appreciation, so being an Indian investor we should be ready anytime for near 20% cut in INR terms. So why bothering risking money on inflated levels and doing this tukka stuff
Its better to wait on sidelines and see how the picture evolves.
Anyways all the best with your view.:thumb:
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
About gold companies read this article you will know why i have drawn similarity with home prices.
http://www.moneylife.in/article/if-...s-their-borrowers-and-their-lenders/8380.html
Arguments which I liked is purity concept and auction selling possibility which can easily take away the 30% cushion margin in falling market.
Coming to USD, dollar is the king whether you like it or not, every country is stuffed with USD in their reserves, and if you are non-believer of usd economy then you are believer of emerging economy and ultimately be supporter of USDINR appreciation, so being an Indian investor we should be ready anytime for near 20% cut in INR terms. So why bothering risking money on inflated levels and doing this tukka stuff
Its better to wait on sidelines and see how the picture evolves.
Anyways all the best with your view.:thumb:
Yes there is no logic of this gold-currency hedge or gold-currency pair trade whatever you would like to call. Fundamentals of currency points to long on currency, may be due to recent comex gold and inr's inverse relation he may have tempted to short usdinr but you can see from the last 2 days inr is rangebound so this theory doesn't fits for long term(intraday may be possible).
Now coming to gold, some retailers and small speculator were short so we have seen pullback in gold(fact by reports) and now when the same retailers who are entering gold near 28000 level on physical gold will see the same fate, retailers ne 29-30 k levels pe bhi jam k buying ki thi gold ki
Conditions are that those who have taken loan from gold financing company on 30-32 levels are now giving hard time to these companies(paise chukane hain ki nahi chukane hain, remember home loan bubble in US).
Currency 50 aane ki agar expectations hain to we need some radical shift in our indian policy, abhi haalat ye hain ki posco, mittals and wallmart are exiting from our economy.
You surprised me again PT sir.
Now coming to gold, some retailers and small speculator were short so we have seen pullback in gold(fact by reports) and now when the same retailers who are entering gold near 28000 level on physical gold will see the same fate, retailers ne 29-30 k levels pe bhi jam k buying ki thi gold ki
Conditions are that those who have taken loan from gold financing company on 30-32 levels are now giving hard time to these companies(paise chukane hain ki nahi chukane hain, remember home loan bubble in US)
.Currency 50 aane ki agar expectations hain to we need some radical shift in our indian policy, abhi haalat ye hain ki posco, mittals and wallmart are exiting from our economy.
You surprised me again PT sir.
Retailers trapped again or not???
And where's INR btw--61.
I'll keep it posted on every month's NFP.
All the best.:thumb:
Totally agreed conceptually , that free printing of money weakens the currency. But reality is far away from textbook principles and ideal situation.
1st thing: please note that there is no alternative to the USD, even the second major superpower(China) is stuffed with USD and can't do anything about it.
2nd thing: please see Dollar Index which actually shows whether USD is strong or weak, USD printing is always there and has seen the maximum quantum after 2008, and what you observe in dollar index chart from that point, Dollar index is strong and has kept his base above 72, so yes by all facts and figures US Dollar is strong.
3rd thing: Right now current scenario is that USD package is about to be withdrawn, so again if you still go by text book principle or by facts dollar will gain further momentum with the withdrawal of stimulus.
4th thing: If you believe that US economy will collapse again, it will again print money and keep its market up till eternity or say another 50 years till some economy overrides US.
5th: World is already indebted to US, reason-major reserves in USD, major gold holder on earth is US, major technological know how is with US, and major Arsenal and other muscle power is with US and its allies, you can enlighten me if any other threat to US exist.
So fictional thinking that EMs stop caring about dollar and will come back to trading and dealing gold is a far cry, and even if you want to trade in gold guess who holds the gold
, that free printing of money weakens the currency. But reality is far away from textbook principles and ideal situation.1st thing: please note that there is no alternative to the USD, even the second major superpower(China) is stuffed with USD and can't do anything about it.
2nd thing: please see Dollar Index which actually shows whether USD is strong or weak, USD printing is always there and has seen the maximum quantum after 2008, and what you observe in dollar index chart from that point, Dollar index is strong and has kept his base above 72, so yes by all facts and figures US Dollar is strong.
3rd thing: Right now current scenario is that USD package is about to be withdrawn, so again if you still go by text book principle or by facts dollar will gain further momentum with the withdrawal of stimulus.
4th thing: If you believe that US economy will collapse again, it will again print money and keep its market up till eternity or say another 50 years till some economy overrides US.
5th: World is already indebted to US, reason-major reserves in USD, major gold holder on earth is US, major technological know how is with US, and major Arsenal and other muscle power is with US and its allies, you can enlighten me if any other threat to US exist.
So fictional thinking that EMs stop caring about dollar and will come back to trading and dealing gold is a far cry, and even if you want to trade in gold guess who holds the gold
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