Gamma based range & trade

[umash2000]

Broad range at the start of series was at 5910-6305-6700.

Since 20ema reversal point(5706) is below lower point 5910,nifty is not expected to break 6305 as of now.

Top of this series is 6575.

Thus,range further gets restricted now to 6575-6305.

Immediate support expected around 6400-6455 on the lower side.Puts would be closed around those region..

MACD divergence tick(Histogram) is at 6608.

 

[umash2000]

Closing 2 lots 6600 puts @ 95

Closing 1 more lot at 118

Status of trades(Open position):
Sell 6200 call @ 179: -120
Sell 6200 call @ 234: -65

Status of closed trades today:
Buy 6600 put @ 96: +22
Buy 6600 put @ 66: +29
Buy 6600 put @ 66: +29

(+248 is position of closed trades so far)

 

[umash2000]

Broad range at the start of series was at 5910-6305-6700.

20ema reversal point(5798) is below lower point 5910,but racing fast.Is nifty going to move towards 6305 ??

Top of this series is 6575.

Thus,range further gets restricted now to 6575-6305.

Immediate support expected around 6400-6455 on the lower side.Puts was closed today and fresh positions would be taken tomorrow if nifty tests 6500..

MACD divergence tick(Histogram) is at 6558.

 

[umash2000]

Fresh position for the day.
Buy 6600 put 2 lots at 90..

Status of trades(Open position):
Sell 6200 call @ 179: -130
Sell 6200 call @ 234: -75
Buy 6600 put @ 90:+7
Buy 6600 put @ 90:+7

(+248 is position of closed trades so far)

 

[umash2000]

Broad range at the start of series was at 5910-6305-6700.

20ema reversal point(5876) is below lower point 5910,but racing fast.Is nifty going to move towards 6305 ??It seems possible...Atleast we cannot rule it out..

Top of this series is 6575.

Thus,range further gets restricted now to 6575-6305.

Immediate support expected around 6400 on the lower side.Fresh puts were taken.Further puts would be added at the top..

MACD divergence tick(Histogram) is at 6578.

Option max pain is at 6400 & 20ema now is at 6397..Broad trend positive and daily trend negative would attract nifty towards Max option pain and 20ema along with max option pain signifies that 6400 could get broken...

On the whole for exciting expiry for sure...

 

[umash2000]

20ema reversal point(5947) has entered into the lower range 5910.Nifty is expected to react to this entry by dipping down to move towards 20ema point at 6406..20ma about to cross 20ema.Again one could expect nifty to dip towards 20ema..MACD divergence cross is expected to get into negative on Monday if nifty unable to move past 6523..

Nifty seen testing 12 ma higher previously.Now,when macd divergence cross becoming negative would tend to push nifty within the band..6400-6450..

 

[umash2000]

Buy 2 lots 6600 put @ 68

Buy 2 more lots 6600 put @ 40

Status of trades(Open position):
Sell 6200 call @ 179: -217
Sell 6200 call @ 234: -162
Buy 6600 put @ 90: -56
Buy 6600 put @ 90:-56
Buy 6600 put @ 68:-34
Buy 6600 put @ 68:-34
Buy 6600 put @ 40:-6
Buy 6600 put @ 40:-6

(+248 is position of closed trades so far)

 

[umash2000]

Nifty hitting new highs past the old one & sustaining at the close came as a shocker.Thus,identification of high for the series has not worked and to be ignored.

Thus,whats working as of now is the broad range is working..Further,entry of reversal points within the range is indicative that particular ema would be tested shortly..

20ema reversal point entry into the range indicates that 20ema would be tested shortly..(Expiry week???) But note that 5ema reversal also within the range and nifty decided to move past 5ema reversal point again..Thus,henceforth we do know the risk involved based on reversal points within the ranges..

50ema/100ema/200ema reversal; points away from the range is indicative of those points not to be tested..Safe zones..

Further note that Gamma range for April series is 6190-6675-7160 as of now.....

 

[umash2000]

Gamma range played its role for March series.Broad range stipulated was 5910-6700 with midpoint 6305.Both 5910 & 6700 was not breached as expected.

6305 maintained its sentimental number represented by MACD.Since MACD was positive,nifty did not drop below 6305.

20ema reversal point getting within the band created a expectation that nifty could drop down as it was further supported by MACD div cross about to become negative.This expectation resulted in wrong trade in taking puts at the end.Selling of call options was also wrong..These trades have resulted in loss.

Thus,gamma range usage purpose to be restricted to its essence only.
The range within which nifty is expected to play.The critical role of midpoint as sentiment driver.Thats it.No more usage.Which side one is going to trade?

Based on the above,April series presents a range of 6270-6715-7160.
Thus, one could expect 6270 & 7160 not to be breached on either side..Midpoint is 6715.MACD is positive and would become negative only below 5384.Thus,nifty is expected to climb past 6715 shortly..Trading range expected is 6715-7160..On the lower side 6604 could be tested and expected not to be breached.If breached,6493 would be the lower side target.Upper side specific target would be 6938..

 

[Somatung]

@Umash2000

You must be in loss with the MAR series, as all your puts and short calls are in loss. http://www.traderji.com/options/92627-gamma-based-range-trade-5.html#post948646