Gamma based range & trade

[umash2000]

umash please! how do you arrive at the range to be watched would be 6305/6355/6404 for now...May be I am not familiar with your older threads. if it is boring, you may refer me the link pl.
Regards

You can check the broad range arrived at for March series in the first page of this thread.

6305 is Middle point

6404 is H1

6355 is midpoint of 6305/6404..

 

[umash2000]

The rally was too fast and could not get in to calls.Wow reached U2 target 6503.

Position for the day would be to get into 6500 puts at 78

Open position now would be:
Sell 6200 call @ 179
Sell 6200 call @ 234
Buy 6500 puts @ 78

Status of trades:
Sell 6200 call @ 179: -178
Sell 6200 call @ 234: -123
Buy 6500 puts @ 78: -10

 

[umash2000]

ritical Parameters for Monday is as follows:-

1.5ema reversal point:6290

2.20ema reversal point:5306

3.MACD div.zero cross:5826

5ema reversal point is now between L1 & Critical point..Pressure seems to be round the corner.

20ema reversal point away from the range indicates that 20ema(6236) would not be broken now..(Thats the reason why 6200 put open interest is piled up for now)

Nifty closed above U2 target 6503.Upmove towards 6550/6601 is there & support expected at 6300-6400 on the downside..

Daily macd.div.tick(Histogram) for tomorrow would be at 6467.

Average price:

6000 call:240

6100 call:154

6200 call:105

Thus,the range to be watched would be 6450-6601 for now..


Huge rally has now put the position miserable.Expect some temporary cool off
next week..

 

[umash2000]

The present moves did make one to look back for trimming inefficiency and to pursue the ones which is working right..

What went wrong:

1.5ema reversal point move within range was seen to be slippery especially in case of high volatality & also inherent weakness due to its shorter nature.

2.Average value & max it could reach is still in infant stage.In volatile situation,it could move big.Have to be monitored.

What went right:

1.Nifty still within broad range anticipated(5910-6700)

2.Nifty above 6305 was considered positive.

3.20ema reversal point(5306) below 5910 indicative that 6305 would not be broken on the lower side as of now.

Summing up with further additions:

1.To avoid 5ema reversal point & average values for decisions..

2.Broad range with midpoint gives an idea of trade range..

3.Position of 20ema reversal point with that of range would determine positivity or negativity.20ema reversal point below the lower point would mean positive and nifty would stay above the midpoint of range.20ema reversal point above the upper point would mean negative and would mean that nifty would stay below the midpoint of range.20ema reversal point within range indicates range bound trade..

4.In positive scenario,one could anticipate highs and in negative scenario the lows based on position of 12ema or 20ema with respect to the range points.

Thus,based on the above we would tend to anticipate the range to be 6305-6700 as 20ema reversal point(5305) is below lower point(5910).High is expected when 12ema(6286) or 20ema(6236) cross or about to cross 6305.This cross is expected to happen in another 1-3 days time..

 

[umash2000]

Am adding Buy 6500 call (2 lots)now @ 120.

Open position now would be:
Sell 6200 call @ 179
Sell 6200 call @ 234
Buy 6500 puts @ 78
Buy 6500 call @ 120
Buy 6500 call @ 120

Status of trades:
Sell 6200 call @ 179: -197
Sell 6200 call @ 234: -142
Buy 6500 puts @ 78: -19
Buy 6500 call @ 120: +5
Buy 6500 call @ 120: +5

 

[umash2000]

Broad range at the start of series was at 5910-6305-6700.

Since 20ema reversal point(5262) is below lower point 5910,nifty is not expected to break 6305 as of now.

Thus,expected range gets reduced to 6305-6700.

1.12ema(6325) crossed 6305 today.
2.20ema(6265) yet to cross 6305.(expected in 1-2 days time)
3.Daily MACD divergence zero cross(5833) is below lower point 5910.
4.Daily MACD divergence tick is at 6545 tomorrow.

Nifty high is expected to be touched either tomorrow or day after tomorrow around 6600 if not happened today..After the completion of touching the high,upside also gets restricted and that point is expected to be the high for this series..

Calls taken today would be closed tomorrow if nifty moves up towards 6600 and stoploss would be 95.Further shorts would also be taken at the top..

 

[umash2000]

Status of trades(Open position):
Sell 6200 call @ 179: -171
Sell 6200 call @ 234: -116
Buy 6500 puts @ 78: -16

Position closed:
Buy 6500 call @ 120: stoploss hit @ 95:-25
Buy 6500 call @ 120: stoploss hit @ 95:-25

Net profit position on closed transactions:88-50:+38

 

[umash2000]

Broad range at the start of series was at 5910-6305-6700.

Since 20ema reversal point(5298) is below lower point 5910,nifty is not expected to break 6305 as of now.

Thus,expected range gets reduced to 6305-6700.

1.12ema(6353) already crossed 6305 yesterday.
2.20ema(6288) yet to cross 6305.(expected to cross tomorrow)
3.Daily MACD divergence zero cross(5904) is about to cross lower point 5910.
4.Daily MACD divergence tick is at 6583 tomorrow.

Nifty high is either touched today or is expected to happen tomorrow..After the completion of touching the high,upside also gets restricted and that point is expected to be the high for this series..

Calls taken hit stoploss 95.Further shorts would be taken at the top if nifty moves up..

 

[umash2000]

Being the last day of nifty trying to hit highs,have taken position in
Buy 6600 put @ 95 today.Further would be added,if nifty moves up further..or at end of day..

Had bought 2 more lots of 6600 put at the end of the day @ 101.

Status of trades(Open position):
Sell 6200 call @ 179: -174
Sell 6200 call @ 234: -119
Buy 6500 puts @ 78: -23
Buy 6600 put @ 95:+6
Buy 6600 put @ 101: -
Buy 6600 put @ 101: -

 

[umash2000]

Broad range at the start of series was at 5910-6305-6700.

Since 20ema reversal point(5361) is below lower point 5910,nifty is not expected to break 6305 as of now.

Thus,expected range gets reduced to 6305-6700.

1.12ema(6379) already crossed 6305.
2.20ema(6310) cross 6305 today.
3.Daily MACD divergence zero cross(5972) cross lower point 5910 today
4.Daily MACD divergence tick is at 6585 tomorrow.

Since 20ema has crossed 6305 today,one could assume that top of the series has been hit yesterday at 6563.

Thus,range further gets restricted now to 6563-6305.

Immediate support expected around 6400-6430 on the lower side.Puts have been taken today to be closed around those region..