Exhaustion gaps

[AMITBE]

Why do you think I have laboured to compose this post ?

Because I still maintain that the market is getting overvalued and we are in a bubble zone .... so it may be wise to sit on cash , or at least hedge oneself with nifty puts

The momentum of yesterday may well spill over in the short term, but IMHO that will only blow up the vulnerability of the markets.

Views ??

Happy Trading/ Investing

AGILENT

Agilent, I'm sure each one of us appreciates your labour in pursuing with this thread.
The likely reason for not getting a lot of response here, is there is none here that doubts that there shall be a correction at some point. There's none here that does not know the markets are way over valued.
You have been reiterating the brazenly obvious, as in two plus two is four.
Obviously there is a buying frenzy going on, and what you imagine as an Exhaustion gap turns out to be a Runaway gap.
And there is no saying when and how these gaps will be filled.

IMHO that nothing is ever really a bubble. What one sees as a bubble is just an occurence caused by a combination of factors.
There is a rationale behind everything, and in this instance it's profiteering by those who have the strength to move the markets. When they are done, they'll turn the other way. As skilled beings, it's are job to play it in either direction.
A figurative bubble appears like a bubble as long as one chooses to see it as one. And for those who chose to see reality in such a fashion, hey, a bubble is a bubble and it will perish eventually. Nothing special about that.

You are more than welcome to continue to talk of gaps, it's an interesting research for analysis.
I'd personally feel more enriched if you discussed the market movers in a global perspective, emerging markets et al, and the wider eco/political ramifications of all this, locally and globally.
Look forward to hearing from you.
Regards.

 

[Agilent]

There's none here that does not know the markets are way over valued.

There is a rationale behind everything, and in this instance it's profiteering by those who have the strength to move the markets. When they are done, they'll turn the other way. As skilled beings, it's are job to play it in either direction.

I'd personally feel more enriched if you discussed the market movers in a global perspective, emerging markets et al, and the wider eco/political ramifications of all this, locally and globally.

Look forward to hearing from you.

Amit

I don't see whats the issue here ... we are both saying the same thing ... the markets are overvalued. (With this premise firmly established, a correction becomes inevitable)

and .... 'when they're done, they turn the other way' ... I think its high time they are done now, because the 'they' you allude to (the big bulls ? manipulators ? speculators ?) will surely get away by being ahead of the curve ... its the small players who will get caught, when (and not if) the correction comes

As far as global/emerging markets perspective .. what can I add to the quote in my post, pointing out that India (at 20 times forward earnings) is far too expensive compared to several other EM nations

AGILENT

 

[AMITBE]

Amit

I don't see whats the issue here ... we are both saying the same thing ... the markets are overvalued. (With this premise firmly established, a correction becomes inevitable)

and .... 'when they're done, they turn the other way' ... I think its high time they are done now, because the 'they' you allude to (the big bulls ? manipulators ? speculators ?) will surely get away by being ahead of the curve ... its the small players who will get caught, when (and not if) the correction comes

As far as global/emerging markets perspective .. what can I add to the quote in my post, pointing out that India (at 20 times forward earnings) is far too expensive compared to several other EM nations

AGILENT

The issue quite simply is:

I'm sure each one of us appreciates your labour in pursuing with this thread.
The likely reason for not getting a lot of response here, is there is none here that doubts that there shall be a correction at some point. There's none here that does not know the markets are way over valued.
You have been reiterating the brazenly obvious, as in two plus two is four.

This morning you had quoted ET and TOI, to reiterate a fact that is well known to all of us here....if not through ET or TOI, then through common sense, and general awareness of what is going on.
We don't really need the guys at ET and TOI or anybody elese to keep on at it. Recall, there is no rocket science in establishing that two plus two is four?

You had also written:

Well obviously this thread seems to have been ill-conceived, or premature ... as the market continues to rise in a frenzy

I was merely affirming that.
Who is anybody to say it's high time the big guys were done?
Keep saying it till the cows come home, for all it matters. They'll be done when they are done, and that's pretty much it. Talk of bubbles and self-sealing balloons etc...well...is just talk.
For the last three thousand points or more on the Sensex, this kind of carping has been going on from several quarters.
The big guys sure didn't say 'ok ok...we unnerstand your problem...alrighty then people...we're out of here', have they.

The markets, as all players big or small realise with time and losses, is an untamable entity. Those who don't know the rules don't belong here, and those who know, also know what to do when the tide turns.

Regards.

 

[Agilent]

The issue quite simply is:



This morning you had quoted ET and TOI, to reiterate a fact that is well known to all of us here....if not through ET or TOI, then through common sense, and general awareness of what is going on.
We don't really need the guys at ET and TOI or anybody elese to keep on at it. Recall, there is no rocket science in establishing that two plus two is four?

You had also written:

I was merely affirming that.
Who is anybody to say it's high time the big guys were done?
Keep saying it till the cows come home, for all it matters. They'll be done when they are done, and that's pretty much it. Talk of bubbles and self-sealing balloons etc...well...is just talk.
For the last three thousand points or more on the Sensex, this kind of carping has been going on from several quarters.
The big guys sure didn't say 'ok ok...we unnerstand your problem...alrighty then people...we're out of here', have they.

The markets, as all players big or small realise with time and losses, is an untamable entity. Those who don't know the rules don't belong here, and those who know, also know what to do when the tide turns.

Regards.

Amit
I see your point and theres a lot of sense in that . But I am also saddened and intrigued as to why you have to be derisive or contemptuous of other opinions merely because they do not fully match yours.

Rgds and may God bless you
AGILENT

 

[AMITBE]

Amit
I see your point and theres a lot of sense in that . But I am also saddened and intrigued as to why you have to be derisive or contemptuous of other opinions merely because they do not fully match yours.

Rgds and may God bless you
AGILENT

I'm awfully sorry Agilent, if I've hurt your feelings here. It was not at all the intention.
I had only wanted to say, as I have been saying at NIFTY FIFTY, that while we cannot call the market top the constant rise in the markets is nothing short of a dog eat dog kind of scenario, and let's make the best of it while staying very close to the exit, as things can change very abruptly.
I had also made a request to you asking for a post on the implications of major global players fiddling with and manipulating smaller emerging markets, since you seem to do a fair deal of researching. That we may be at 20 times forward earnings is not the issue.

Perhaps I should quit posting at your topics.

Sorry for your hurt feelings again Agilent.

 

[pkjha30]

I'm awfully sorry Agilent, if I've hurt your feelings here. It was not at all the intention.
I had only wanted to say, as I have been saying at NIFTY FIFTY, that while we cannot call the market top the constant rise in the markets is nothing short of a dog eat dog kind of scenario, and let's make the best of it while staying very close to the exit, as things can change very abruptly.
I had also made a request to you asking for a post on the implications of major global players fiddling with and manipulating smaller emerging markets, since you seem to do a fair deal of researching. That we may be at 20 times forward earnings is not the issue.

Perhaps I should quit posting at your topics.

Sorry for your hurt feelings again Agilent.

Hi

Amit you are gracious in making your point. When sesible arguments are made the question of hurt feelings should not arise. We are all intelligent beings and what is being said in this forum is after lot of thoughts and analysis save few exceptions. In free discussion, we all agree to disagree and yet be friends. Further, no point of view is abolute. As one is not married to a stock one is also not married to a viewpoint if it becomes irrelevant. So Agilent should not have felt hurt but I think he is little emotional.

As regards market I am not an analyst or whatever. But economic trend is up and India is now only opening up. So I have a feeling that sensex may correct or correct deeply but will not go down the drain. it will recover.

There may be situations unpredictable which might bring such a scenario come to pass and fulfill Baron's prediction but otherwise I think by year end sensex will surprise everybody and might touch 15000. Experts are saying about crash since it was at 6700. If it crashes it might be from 20000 to 15000

regards to both Amit and Agilent
pankaj

 

[karthikmarar]

Hi Agilent and Amit

The discussion is just getting interesting.. we are group of intelligent people which their own strong views. As long as we express our views however strongly in a civilized way without personal remarks it is fair enough. Good discussions are heated with strong opposing views. There is no place for emotions.

Please do continue and make this space much more interesting.

As far I am concerned I would prefer to go along with the market without spending too much energy trying to predict it. Corrections will come and so will rallies. I prefer to cross the bridge when I come to it.

warm regards

Karthik

 

[Agilent]

Hi Agilent and Amit

The discussion is just getting interesting.. we are group of intelligent people which their own strong views. As long as we express our views however strongly in a civilized way without personal remarks it is fair enough. Good discussions are heated with strong opposing views. There is no place for emotions.

Please do continue and make this space much more interesting.

As far I am concerned I would prefer to go along with the market without spending too much energy trying to predict it. Corrections will come and so will rallies. I prefer to cross the bridge when I come to it.

warm regards

Karthik

Hi Karthik, Amit, Pk Jha

Nice to see this thread is stabilising .. and thanks for yr resp comments

Karthik, I honestly admire you for your skills (underlined above) ... going along with the market is easier said than done , and if yr hit/miss ratio is consistently above 70 or 80 % , then hat's off ! You also imply that you do not trade the indices, and probably have a bottoms up approach. Would really like to glean some tips on scrip selection (and timing) when u have the time

Amit ... I acknowledge yr gracious apology, and am sure we will have a better understanding 'going forward'. As to your request asking for a 'post on the implications of major global players fiddling with and manipulating smaller emerging markets' , can u pl elaborate . Speaking about India, do u suggest some such players are actually manipulating our markets ? And if they are, is it violation of ethical/statutory norms/guidelines . I doubt v much.

IMHO what seems to be happening ( and the overvaluation we both agreed on corroborates that) is a violation of prudential norms through 'irrational exuberance'.. in simple words overheating (and like you say, who are we to question that, as long as we can make money in the process).I don't think its the FIIs who are doing that... its probably the big bulls /speculators.

If it was 'manipulation' in the true sense, surely SEBI/FM would have got into the act ... since there's no hint of that so far, theres nothing irregular being done ... right ?

The only 'scam' which has been recently unearthed is the IPO/Dmat scam, but that should not impact the secondary market would it ?

Eager to hear your own views .. others' comments ..

AGILENT

 

[gandharvashu]

Hi Agilent!

My target for Nifty is 3530 and nifty is just quite close to it and moreover we are seeing more signs of intraday profit booking. In view this is the last phase of bull market. Anyone can earn profits just by picking any shares. Almost all shares marking 52 week lows are up around 10% or more. I see end is clear. Going to try short nifty at 3530.

 

[gandharvashu]

Hi!

Again recently when Marc Faber came around two months back, he said india is currently being chased by hot money, shot-term money, markets can go anywhere from 11,000 to 13,000 but then .......... I think as an individual investor we have the best weapon in our hand and i.e. any time entry and anytime exit.