Elliottwave count for SENSEX

[kkseal]

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deer kalyan that is the trick.i think he knows better but on icici website he is never specific.the guy is intelligent and he may know much more.all that is for a fee.I discussed the limitations of Elliot's theory with him and the reliability of Gann.The relativity of time and price can be understood only by application of Gann.A stock is flat but it is infact declining;just like the sensex since july06,it is moving up but lacks the momentum of the period prior to may06.RELATIVITY on the time scale.
He did see the point but refused to concede and said that his software took care of all of it.I did not beleive him because he could not respond when i said E=MC squared.THAT's IT.

That is why i rely the most on Fundamentals. All other methods give you only part of the picture - it's either the tail, the legs, the trunk but never the whole elephant (although fanatical proponents of each method would have you believe that it is the whole elephant). That is not to say they are useless though. Technicals do help a lot with the timing & that is no less important.

BTW Liquidity is another devil to keep a close watch on. (In fact i am beginning to sense this is the one that's going to cause the biggest damage). 'Coz if liquidity dries up then we may remain stuck in a range a long long time, not being able to cross the previous (5th wave) high simply due to the lack of money flow (although the economy may continue to do well).

But then this is not the thread to discuss Fundamentals. I am probably already irritating the other boarders.

BTW how does EWT account for ranging mkts one that is neither in a clear uptrend nor downtrend but just remaining rangebound in a Rectangular or Symmetric triangle (lower highs & higher lows) kind of price pattern. What kind of a wave would that be? Also would it still be considered a bear mkt if we have not been able to take out the previous (bull 5th wave) top but not violated the (last bear phase)bottom either?

Regards,
Kalyan.

 

[kkseal]

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just like the sensex since july06,it is moving up but lacks the momentum of the period prior to may06.RELATIVITY on the time scale.

This becomes more apparent when you consider the broader mkts. One look at the Adv-Decl line since June would make one think we are in a bear mkt!

All this does signal that major top unless things improve after some correction.

Regards,
Kalyan.

 

[CreditViolet]

All other methods give you only part of the picture - it's either the tail, the legs, the trunk but never the whole elephant

There are methods that would give you not only the picture but the whole frame and the museum. But it takes tremendous amount of grunt work to see that picture and will remain invisible if you dont have the conviction

CV

 

[kkseal]

There are methods that would give you not only the picture but the whole frame and the museum. But it takes tremendous amount of grunt work to see that picture and will remain invisible if you dont have the conviction

CV

I'm sure there is CV I've heard of these multidimensional mathematical models being used by some hedge funds.
My knowledge is limited and not everything is within my reach.

Regards,
Kalyan.

P.S. : I don't think it's impossible to have a Mathematical model for Techno-Funda combo analysis. And if it's possible it's probably already in existence.

 

[CreditViolet]

I'm sure there is CV I've heard of these multidimensional mathematical models being used by some hedge funds.
My knowledge is limited and not everything is within my reach.

Regards,
Kalyan.

P.S. : I don't think it's impossible to have a Mathematical model for Techno-Funda combo analysis. And if it's possible it's probably already in existence.

All I am saying is there is still lot to explore beyond EW and FA. TA is all about manipulating time-series data and there are hundred of ways to do it.

And its not abt combining TA FA or complex math models...its all about what gives you an edge to operate in the markets. Rest is academic

CV

 

[kkseal]

...its all about what gives you an edge to operate in the markets.

CV

Yeah. Anticipate probabilities ... & when a certainty emerges from those probabilities latch on to it early ... manage risks along the way .... that's all there is to it!

Regards,
Kalyan.

 

[kkseal]

There are methods that would give you not only the picture but the whole frame and the museum. But it takes tremendous amount of grunt work to see that picture and will remain invisible if you dont have the conviction

CV

What are these methods? Could you mention some? Or is it a professional secret??
And how does the 'museum' look to you for the next 1 yr? Is it all cadavers or do you see life as well??

Regards,
Kalyan.

 

[winstonn]

hi all friends,

the market is facing tremendous volatility as sensex is in 4th corrective of 5 of final 5.

See the chart attached , now 4th is confirmed as trianglular correction.
Break Above 13700 on closing basis will signify new uptrend with minimum target of 14800 .
Cycle analysis suggests that year 2007 will be not great ,sideways to volatile with downward market, overall difficult for trend followers, however a best buying opportunity for the 2008 and 2009 bull market.

with main elliott wave about to terminate as main wave 5 in jan to feb,
suggesting that the overall 2007 year would be putting pressure on markets.

thanxs
winston.

 

[amitt29]

Hi friends,
Just wud like to post the possible scenario that can be unfolding.
1)the greenish nomenclature is bullish triangle of which we have completed 5 legs and finished the correction,we shud be ideally head higher from tuesday and break above that red line then retest the line and zoom ahead.To complete what several ppl believe is 5th of 5th.As i had stated earlier 3770 is key for any such bullish scenarios.And it has held thus far.


2)The red nomenclature is i am afraid not good news at all,according to that we shud be headed to 3700 odd then bounce back to 3934 to complete a zigzag flat(335)and wave 2.And then head lower.And it also signifies that bull market is over i am afraid.

There is divergence with RSI on weekly,that cud take some time to resolve and i am confident if the market rises it has to be a sustained one to clear that divergence,which i am afraid is not what i am looking at.The RSI weekly will be diverging with the price.
So mantaining tight stop-loss and being a bit flexible in thinking shud be order of the day.

Best Wishes for the week and Have a merry Christmas everyone.
Warm Regards
Amit.

 

[toxicexpulsion]

i hope the green nomenclature prevails.