do traders subconsciously really want to lose?

[onlinegtrash]

So, according to you (based on your actual experience and not theories), Luck factor is a non-entity and the trade & winning or loosing depends ONLY on the Individual's knowledge , training, strategies etc.

I have seen many make incredible efforts to study each of the scrips, how they shall perform etc etc and yet, they end making some mistake and loose money. This could be a nano second decision that may be against all the theories that have been learned.

Now we can say that it is lack of training or pure lack of luck (to have behaved irrationally).

There are also situations where inspite of best of the studies and a perfectly conscious trade went the opposite way for reasons that where never disclosed at the time of placing of order and could be relied completely. Here also we can say for argument sake that the person had not done proper study or should have got out once he learns about the reversal or can say that it was pure lack of luck.

In both cases, the person usually becomes numb due to confusion caused by the unexpected loss or potential huge loss and simply sits dumb out of fear from doing anything to stop the losses piling or taking active steps to reverse the losses.

Is it the limitation of Individual's brain to react in a debilitating manner or the emotional surge that cause the brain to behave such irrational manner?.

Either such person should not take up stock trading or is there any methodology to train themselves so that their brain can function is a way that is most appropriate for a trader?

One point though is that, some persons seems to end up making money though they may have any training or knowledge in stock markets and depend purely on their intuitive powers.

Do you know a professional trader will be losing 60-70% of trades and breaking even 20% and making a killing in 10% of trades. This trading pattern is not unusual but a common occurrence in winning traders?

A professional and newbie will get same treatment from market, the difference is how they handle the 'treatment'.
A professional will loss <1% in those 60-70% scratch trades, make 10-50% returns on those 20% break even trades, and make 100-600% returns in those rare 10% outlier trades.

So the magic is not in 'training, intuition or luck or god's gift'...
the magic is in being prepared to handle the 'treatment' with plans, position sizing and having enough mastery to ride a trend...

This is just one sample, there are other type of professionals too with different set of win rate, win size, time frame etc. but hope you get the essence of the difference between professional and newbie traders.

Now how to change your losing trading pattern into the patterns of winning traders? That needs knowledge, understanding, training, execution perfection, MM, psychology... intuition is nothing but a super fast strong pattern recognition talent without effort full thinking, which comes after hours and hours of watching scripts/charts./market segment.

 

[Jai Mata Di]

Intuition is not Luck, when we r winning 100s times using it, brain trained.


For me, my intuition is nothing but watching 5 time frames charts side by side, like 2m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 4hr/Day with some common indicators & Fibo Levels and take a collective decision instantly based on pattern recognition with help of those indicators and levels. Mind automatically says condition triggered buy/sell. Within few seconds mind also fix position size after calculating risk and reward and probable stop loss, but fixed target for mostly partial profit booking only. Rest on trailing stop depends on market.

Traders underestimate mind(intuition) always search for winning system. But our mind is the greatest system.
Just don't puzzle mind with changing system continuously.
Give our mind some good tested technical system (like I gave my mind different time frame charts with some common indicators and levels ). After watching(paper trading) about 3,000-4000 hrs live and then another 5000+ hours life trading, a trader can realize the brain power of mind slowly.
Then, if someone watch U 2/3 hours live trading successfully, would be puzzled with your style:-
tukka trading/intuition/money management/risk-position size management/partial profit booking/averaging/Luck?
When you do it successfully 100-1000 times it is not Luck. It is mind power.

Give brain that min required time at least 10,000+ hour live which any business required. Only then, there is a fair chance to reinvent our brain power(intuition). :clapping:

Sometime my intuition is taking a decision after watching very minutely even a ema/stoch cut angle, trend lines on indicators, macd difference, convergence-divergence, indicators(rsi-cci-stoch) patterns-slope etc.
Just train your mind with same tech tools, It'll start reacting slowly, if we don't puzzle it continuously with different systems.

Best Wishes to ALL.
Happy Trading.

H.C.

 

[agsuresh]

Do you know a professional trader will be losing 60-70% of trades and breaking even 20% and making a killing in 10% of trades. This trading pattern is not unusual but a common occurrence in winning traders?

A professional and newbie will get same treatment from market, the difference is how they handle the 'treatment'.
A professional will loss <1% in those 60-70% scratch trades, make 10-50% returns on those 20% break even trades, and make 100-600% returns in those rare 10% outlier trades.

So the magic is not in 'training, intuition or luck or god's gift'...
the magic is in being prepared to handle the 'treatment' with plans, position sizing and having enough mastery to ride a trend...

This is just one sample, there are other type of professionals too with different set of win rate, win size, time frame etc. but hope you get the essence of the difference between professional and newbie traders.

Now how to change your losing trading pattern into the patterns of winning traders? That needs knowledge, understanding, training, execution perfection, MM, psychology... intuition is nothing but a super fast strong pattern recognition talent without effort full thinking, which comes after hours and hours of watching scripts/charts./market segment.

Sir,

Are you not contradicting yourself?

//So the magic is not in 'training, intuition or luck or god's gift'...//


The preparedness is what is involved in training. Is it not?

If the professionals loose 70% of trades and win only 30%, how can that be sensible ? That means one has 70% chance of wiping out his capital. and once his capital is gone what is the use of that 30% chance ? That makes this pure gambling. You are just hopping that you shall "one day" in your life time that you shall be in that 30% category and win all that you had lost being in that 70% category. Or even if you where in that 30% now that every chance that you shall be in that 70% category the next moment.

It is this uncertainty that brings in the element of Luck.

Unless the so called professionals are really good in what they do and the percentages are reversed. Then only the training, preparedness, knowledge, etc etc make sense.

There are lots of books and theories available on this subject. If one is good orator / have good writing skills , he can be publish books, but it needs far more than that to be in the driving seat and win.

Some persons just do not have in them to make it in the share market (widely known to be govt approved gambling unit). May be their brain is not tuned to function in a sensible manner at the most needed nano second. They fail but comforts themselves that even professional fail 70% so he will have to try more to reach there, continues and ultimately loose all the capital.

Some persons has that addiction to gambling that draws them to various gambling places. Whatever one tells them or however much they loose, they will borrow and get into that act. whether it is intense hope or pure addiction (it does not matter whether they loose or win), is difficult to understand.

Some persons bet on their gods not to let them down, some on their own intelligence and knowledge , some on astrologers etc etc.

This is a practical psychology.

The more the market is driven by emotions and manipulations, the more its becomes gambling. This is the state of Indian share market unlike the western markets where the investment is made more on fundamental quality of the companies and their potential. In India we can see many companies that have not made any sales or profit for years trading at very high rate for some time and vanish into oblivion. Some body made a fool of somebody. Some of these manuares could be avoided.

In my opinion there is a some factor of the human brain that enables the individual to trade effectively. If that factor is not favorable, he should better avoid this activity before he looses all his capital and bet on the 30% or less chance of making it.

This becomes sensible only of we can identify that particular aspect of brain and train oneself to take effective control to behave properly in that nano second time frame.

 

[onlinegtrash]

Sir,

Are you not contradicting yourself?

//So the magic is not in 'training, intuition or luck or god's gift'...//


The preparedness is what is involved in training. Is it not?

Unfortunately that statement is ambiguous and confusing, it's even looking contradictory.

Let me add some context and see if the confusion goes away.

Training in newbie's context is his effort to tinker with TA, FA, indicators, systems, attending seminars, search for holygrail system (i.e one that only makes profit or consistent profit like a salary)watching news channels, reading newspapers, elaborate theorizing etc etc.

Intuition in newbie's context is some magical 6th sense like precognition of disasters (in movie: final destination)

luck in newbie's context is a special power like video game avatar having special powers (like flying, emitting fire etc.), in an uncertain land only luck can help him to escape from his 'game over'. If luck is on your side, one can effortlessly move to next level of the game. If no luck, he can die by a sudden dragon jumping on him from nowhere, no matter how much mastery he has in playing video games.

I am rejecting all the above ideas as partial and incorrect views of reality.

If you see 'How a person can lose 70% time and win 30% but still can't go broke, still worse such traders become top 1-5% of winners??' as contradictory statement.

To remove the contradiction inside your head you need new concepts and fill the gap.

For eg. when a cave man hears about a mobile phone or GPS navigation or air craft, he will feel, this is all nonsense and contradictory, he may ask "how a piece of metal can take off and fly like a bird when no metal I have seen has done that...", all you can say is dude, you need more concepts to understand, its not magic.

Similarly the concepts you are missing are: Position Sizing, Money management and risk management.

Don't ask me to explain them all here... unless you are ready to pay me hourly consulting charge , go do your home work! (BTW TJ is great place and many threads explain these things and senior expert traders are generous enough to spend their time to help newbies, browse other threads to know more).

 

[anuragmunjal]

Sir,

Are you not contradicting yourself?

//So the magic is not in 'training, intuition or luck or god's gift'...//


The preparedness is what is involved in training. Is it not?

If the professionals loose 70% of trades and win only 30%, how can that be sensible ? That means one has 70% chance of wiping out his capital. and once his capital is gone what is the use of that 30% chance ? That makes this pure gambling. You are just hopping that you shall "one day" in your life time that you shall be in that 30% category and win all that you had lost being in that 70% category. Or even if you where in that 30% now that every chance that you shall be in that 70% category the next moment.

It is this uncertainty that brings in the element of Luck.

Unless the so called professionals are really good in what they do and the percentages are reversed. Then only the training, preparedness, knowledge, etc etc make sense.

There are lots of books and theories available on this subject. If one is good orator / have good writing skills , he can be publish books, but it needs far more than that to be in the driving seat and win.

Some persons just do not have in them to make it in the share market (widely known to be govt approved gambling unit). May be their brain is not tuned to function in a sensible manner at the most needed nano second. They fail but comforts themselves that even professional fail 70% so he will have to try more to reach there, continues and ultimately loose all the capital.

Some persons has that addiction to gambling that draws them to various gambling places. Whatever one tells them or however much they loose, they will borrow and get into that act. whether it is intense hope or pure addiction (it does not matter whether they loose or win), is difficult to understand.

Some persons bet on their gods not to let them down, some on their own intelligence and knowledge , some on astrologers etc etc.

This is a practical psychology.

The more the market is driven by emotions and manipulations, the more its becomes gambling. This is the state of Indian share market unlike the western markets where the investment is made more on fundamental quality of the companies and their potential. In India we can see many companies that have not made any sales or profit for years trading at very high rate for some time and vanish into oblivion. Some body made a fool of somebody. Some of these manuares could be avoided.

In my opinion there is a some factor of the human brain that enables the individual to trade effectively. If that factor is not favorable, he should better avoid this activity before he looses all his capital and bet on the 30% or less chance of making it.

This becomes sensible only of we can identify that particular aspect of brain and train oneself to take effective control to behave properly in that nano second time frame.

I believe you have a very wrong notion that a person who looses on 70% of his trades would wipe away his capital. pls learn mm. on the other hand, I have seen many such examples in real life, especially in bull phases where a a person winning 70-90% of his trades, ultimately gets wiped out.
I believe luck pays a role in every 'individual trade', but on the whole, in the long run 'luck' has a very small role to play in a trader's life.

regards

 

[Galts Gulch]

Do you know a professional trader will be losing 60-70% of trades and breaking even 20% and making a killing in 10% of trades. This trading pattern is not unusual but a common occurrence in winning traders?

A professional and newbie will get same treatment from market, the difference is how they handle the 'treatment'.
A professional will loss <1% in those 60-70% scratch trades, make 10-50% returns on those 20% break even trades, and make 100-600% returns in those rare 10% outlier trades.

So the magic is not in 'training, intuition or luck or god's gift'...
the magic is in being prepared to handle the 'treatment' with plans, position sizing and having enough mastery to ride a trend...

This is just one sample, there are other type of professionals too with different set of win rate, win size, time frame etc. but hope you get the essence of the difference between professional and newbie traders.

Now how to change your losing trading pattern into the patterns of winning traders? That needs knowledge, understanding, training, execution perfection, MM, psychology... intuition is nothing but a super fast strong pattern recognition talent without effort full thinking, which comes after hours and hours of watching scripts/charts./market segment.

I do not remember ... who advocated this ... But worth giving it a thought ... for traders ...

"In Life, 90% of the times, actions are beyond our control. But 90% of the times Reaction to this 90% of actions, which are beyond our control, is always in our control AND Success depends on HOW fast and accurate we React to this 90% of the actions, which are beyond our control"

This very apt for Trading as well ... It is the question of having A plan (well defined Strategy) and Reacting with Plan B for all the 90% of the Market Actions (Market dynamics) that we are not prepared for ...

I do not have a holy grail system or a strategy ... But a properly defined set of parameters ... that ...
"If this and this happens in the market ... in this and this time period ... In this and this sessions ... I will do this, this and this ...
But, if market offers, instead of this, this, and this, that, that and that, I will immediately react with either not taking a trade or reacting with that, that and that, instead of this, this and this ..."

:thumb::clap::clapping:

 

[agsuresh]

Re: Intuition is not Luck, when we r winning 100s times using it, brain trained.

For me, my intuition is nothing but watching 5 time frames charts side by side, like 2m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 4hr/Day with some common indicators & Fibo Levels and take a collective decision instantly based on pattern recognition with help of those indicators and levels. Mind automatically says condition triggered buy/sell. Within few seconds mind also fix position size after calculating risk and reward and probable stop loss, but fixed target for mostly partial profit booking only. Rest on trailing stop depends on market.

Traders underestimate mind(intuition) always search for winning system. But our mind is the greatest system.
Just don't puzzle mind with changing system continuously.
Give our mind some good tested technical system (like I gave my mind different time frame charts with some common indicators and levels ). After watching(paper trading) about 3,000-4000 hrs live and then another 5000+ hours life trading, a trader can realize the brain power of mind slowly.
Then, if someone watch U 2/3 hours live trading successfully, would be puzzled with your style:-
tukka trading/intuition/money management/risk-position size management/partial profit booking/averaging/Luck?
When you do it successfully 100-1000 times it is not Luck. It is mind power.

Give brain that min required time at least 10,000+ hour live which any business required. Only then, there is a fair chance to reinvent our brain power(intuition). :clapping:

Sometime my intuition is taking a decision after watching very minutely even a ema/stoch cut angle, trend lines on indicators, macd difference, convergence-divergence, indicators(rsi-cci-stoch) patterns-slope etc.
Just train your mind with same tech tools, It'll start reacting slowly, if we don't puzzle it continuously with different systems.

Best Wishes to ALL.
Happy Trading.

H.C.

You have hit the bulls eye here. The capacity of the brain to "recognize patterns".

I do not think this ability of the brain can be termed exactly logical in absolute terms, But sure is in a general way.

You have also given certain figures for practice which is very much helpful.

The more one practices, the more brain learns itself to recognize and react. This is a also a technique used by traditional Martial artists. I used to wonder why they go on repeating certain moves thousands of times and never stop. Even the most advanced shall practice the basic moves, though he may have done it many thousands of times for more than a couple of decades. I feel the goal is same.

Many might be loosing because of very low practice and the moment they think they understood the game, they jump into the arena, ready to dig in.

This is very interesting. Pattern recognition & practice- practice - practice to train the brain to recognize the emerging patterns and react automatically.

So in other words, the brain can be programmed by practice. This is also a proven fact. But there are people who are too weak in this and cannot be trained no matter what you do. Shouldn't such persons keep away from Stock market ?

There is a also a natural factor of increased tensions / high blood pressure etc. This could be due to the mind or purely physical. One can try various medicines or yoga etc.

I feel however much one trains or gains knowledge, there is always an unknown element control the events and the outcome. This is not belief or faith etc. This is from numerous times of experiences.

[I have more than 12 years of trading experience]

Thanks a lot for bringing up an extremely good point.

 

[agsuresh]

I believe you have a very wrong notion that a person who looses on 70% of his trades would wipe away his capital. pls learn mm. on the other hand, I have seen many such examples in real life, especially in bull phases where a a person winning 70-90% of his trades, ultimately gets wiped out.
I believe luck pays a role in every 'individual trade', but on the whole, in the long run 'luck' has a very small role to play in a trader's life.

regards

There is no right or wrong notion here.

It is only percentage play. 70% loosing trades Vs 30% winning trades. Once can go on arguing about which is better and why. There is an old saying "a bird in hand is better than two in the bush"

Many are giving away the one in their hand hoping that someday they will get the two in that bush or even hopping that there are far more than the two there and he shall get them.

That is another matter.

The point is what controls and drives the brain in this activity named share trading.

Many talk about risk capacity. Formula one driver may be taking far more risk than an average trader. Or a ski diver. Can they be good share traders because their brain is tinned to take risk?

 

[onlinegtrash]

Re: Intuition is not Luck, when we r winning 100s times using it, brain trained.

[I have more than 12 years of trading experience]

I should take back all my words, my exposure to market is only 3 years.

Just out of curiosity, can you outline what you learned and your trading career trajectory.
If you feel this as very personal question you can skip this question.

 

[Galts Gulch]

Re: Intuition is not Luck, when we r winning 100s times using it, brain trained.

I should take back all my words, my exposure to market is only 3 years.

Just out of curiosity, can you outline what you learned and your trading career trajectory.
If you feel this as very personal question you can skip this question.

3>12 ..... :clap::thumb::clapping: