CRB commodity index

[Yomiuri]

Hello, Dear friends! I have been trading since 2005. I'm looking for the direction of entire the commodity market. The movement of the entire commodity market determine more easily than the movement of the individual commodities. This topic will be considered a futures index Thomson Reuters / CoreCommodity CRB Excess Return (TRJCRB)
The index was created in 1957. At the first time index consists of 28 components, 26 of which were in circulation in the US and Canadian markets. It included the barley and flax with Winnipeg commodity exchange, cocoa, coffee, class "B", copper, cotton, cottonseed oil, wool, hides, lead, potatoes, rubber, sugar, number 4 and number 6, wool and zinc from New York Stock Exchange, corn, eggs, oil, oats, onion, rye, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil and wheat with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and 2 spot positions - cotton in New Orleans and wheat in Minneapolis.

From time to time the index components have changed. Since 1957, it held ten revisions of the index components. The first review took place in 1961 and the last in 2005.
Today, the index includes 19 commodities.

The composition of the index:

Energy raw materials - 39%

WTI crude oil - 23%
Natural gas - 6%
Heating Oil - 5%
Gasoline RBOB - 5%

Agricultural products - 41%

Corn - 6%
Soybeans - 6%
Live Cattle - 6%
Cotton - 5%
Coffee - 5%
Cocoa - 5%
Sugar - 5%
Orange juice - 1%
Lean Hogs - 1%
Wheat - 1%

Precious metals - 7%

Gold - 6%
Silver - 1%

Industrial metals - 13%

Aluminium - 6%
Copper - 6%
Nickel - 1%

The index is not traded. It is used for general information about the movement of the commodity market. CRB on-line:
http://www.investing.com/indices/thomson-reuters---jefferies-crb
I consider the overall situation in the global economy and give a forecast.

 

[Yomiuri]

The market situation is getting better. The collapse of Chinese stocks on Thursday at 6% did not cause the collapse of other countries, investors are not worried, they are positive. Bank of China has invested in the financial system $ 135 billion since the beginning of the week.
Analysts Research Affiliates, Goldman Sachs, Black Rock and Templeton Asset Management believe the market is very cheap and take bullish positions.
Now oil prices. Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will meet in March to stabilize oil prices.

Forecast: CRB buy

 

[Yomiuri]

News.
Gold rose in February by 11%. This is the largest increase for the month, for the past 4 years. Chinese traders are very active in buying gold.
Analysts at Societe Generale: commodity prices are very low.
Unemployment declined in Europe. In December, unemployment was 10.4% in January to 10.3%.
Now Europe 16,650,000 unemployed.
Warren Buffett has written a letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. In this letter, he criticized US politicians who are pessimistic. Renowned investor believe in the US economy.
16 Chinese oil companies have united in a federation to buy oil. They will begin to test the purchase of oil at the end of March.
UAE Minister of Energy requested all countries to stop oil production. This is done to raise oil prices.
Manufacturers in the US reduces oil production, but they will increase production if the price is $ 40.

Forecast: CRB index buy

 

[Yomiuri]

We have learned some important news from the US last week. Beige Book Report: US in seven of the twelve districts of the rise in economic activity.
Car sales are growing. Consumer spending increased. The business community is positive about the economic growth in the future. The tourism sector, building industry, employment, lending are growing.
March 20 is scheduled to meet countries oil producers in Moscow. Nigerian Oil Minister: "Oil prices recovered very slowly, but if the meeting will be held March 20 in Moscow - the price will move faster. Our common target - to $ 50 per barrel. "

Forecast: Hold long positions.

 

[bpr]

If the index is not traded what is the point of analysis/forecast.
why are you wasting your time?

 

[Yomiuri]

If the index is not traded what is the point of analysis/forecast.
why are you wasting your time?

The index is made up of components, you can buy or sell the components of the index.

 

[Yomiuri]

Gold grows. Investors have 40 consecutive days to invest in ETF specializing in gold. Since there are such ETF, has never been to that for 40 consecutive days to get invested.
Major investors in gold are the central banks of Russia and China.
Executive Director raw company Glencore International chief coal trader Ivan Glasenberg convinced that the commodity market has formed a bottom and there are no obstacles to the growth, as well Glasenberg said that fears over a slowdown in China's economy in vain and his company receives a large volume of orders from China.
Jonathan Whitehead from Societe Generale said that when oil prices fell below $ 30, "the feeling that the market is overdone."

Forecast: Hold long positions.

 

[Yomiuri]

Markets are growing. I can not see any technical or fundamental obstacles to further growth.

To hold long positions

 

[Yomiuri]

The market is contradictory mood. After the big growth of the commodities, I think that would be a small correction. Bank of America Merrill Lynch conducted a survey among large managers, they think that the economic growth is now over. Friday commodities market decline shows danger. We fix profits. Position - out of the market.

 

[Yomiuri]

Forecast: sell CRB index