CRB commodity index

[Yomiuri]

After a big commodity market growth, I expect the correction is happening now.
China's economic growth slowed to its lowest level in 25 years.
US crude stocks rose last week by 9.36 million barrels to 532.54 million barrels, with growth forecast at 3.1 million barrels.
Investors around the world are concerned about the excess raw materials. Slightly more than half of Britons are set to withdraw from the EU. The terrorists have intensified their forces on the territory of the EU is more than expected, making it even more destabilize the markets.

Forecast: hold short positions

 

[Yomiuri]

April 17 at Qatar will be a meeting of OPEC - the purpose of the meeting to raise the oil to $ 50. If in March, oil companies are not able to raise the price, and in April, it is unlikely to succeed. Analysts at Barclays believe that oil will fall to $ 30
Reductions in retail personnel in Russia in the first quarter was a record, even in 2008-2009, the situation was better. 2015 is the worst year in the retail trade for more than 40-year period.
The Japanese economy is weak, the industrial production in February decreased by 6.2%, industrial production falls in 2011 when there was a tsunami and the accident at the nuclear power plant, the demand for exports from Japan falls. The recession in Japan will be longer than expected. The costs of the country are growing, incomes are falling.

The government sold 30-year bonds with a yield of 47 basis points. Japan is a colony of retirees. The graph shows the demographic collapse in 30 years, the population decline by 30% to 90mln, while the number of working-age population shrink by 33% to 52 million. To put it simply, the date of redemption of the bonds issued this week in Japan will be more pensioners than employees and a financial and demographic dead end.

Income Americans are growing more rapidly than costs. US citizens have become more frugally, people are afraid of instability in the world economy.

Forecast: hold short positions

 

[Yomiuri]

Results of trade for March

29.02.16-01.04.16 CRB index +197844 pts

29.02.16-18.03.16 buy +145715 pts
21.03.16-22.03.16 n/a
23.03.16-01.04.16 sell +52129 pts

Main commodities

Oil(CL) +1123 pts
Gas +111 pts
Gold +5860 pts
Aluminum -12750 pts
Copper +262 pts
Corn +2263 pts
Soybeans +2738 pts
Live Cattle +1298 pts

 

[Yomiuri]

The market grown slightly last week. But bears are still strong, the market will fall.
A wave of corporate defaults is coming to the US economy. The recession unfolds. labor cost is very high.

Forecast: hold short positions

 

[Yomiuri]

We look forward to Sunday April 17, will meet in Doha. If the meeting does not bring results, then the price of oil falls to 30 dollars. As problems in the banking sector. In addition to all the strengthening of the dollar. The government of Russia has once again launches privatization, state-owned company passes into the hands of some unknown people. In the short-term commodity market will fall.

Forecast: hold short positions

 

[Yomiuri]

The situation of uncertainty. Close short positions. We will wait for next week.