Conservative strategy

Discussion in 'Futures' started by suri112000, Jul 26, 2016.

  1. suri112000

    suri112000 Well-Known Member

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    1st July - there was another trade. Red bar high just before SL hit green bar. That resulted in scratch and breakeven trade.

    So, total 2 trades. 1st trade resulted in -10. 2nd trade resulted 0 points.
    close the trades exactly at 3:25 pm if price does not hit profit target or SL or BE point.


    4th July - Two trades are correct. But the second trade resulted in BE. So, there is no loss or gain on this day. (Ignore 1 or 2 points of profit).
     
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  2. Purushotham

    Purushotham Well-Known Member

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    Deleted as chart is wrong sorry.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2016
  3. suri112000

    suri112000 Well-Known Member

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    5th Jul

    There were 2 trades. One is already shown in the chart and it resulted in -10 and 2nd trade is 4th bar low (Count bars 1,2,3,4 after SL hit bar) and that trade is resulted in 23 points profit.

    1st trade -10
    2nd trade + 23 points.
     
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  4. Purushotham

    Purushotham Well-Known Member

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    My BAD...
    1st July chart

    [​IMG]adult image host
     
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  5. suri112000

    suri112000 Well-Known Member

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  6. suri112000

    suri112000 Well-Known Member

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    This is how the strategy behaved in July 2016 applying the same rules for entry and exits.
    This analysis helps in maximising the profit potential.

    Profit target of 10 points has clearly emerged as winner with favourable strike rate, profit factor and hit rate.

    Intraday trading warrants quick action in executing the trades ie getting in and getting out. This strategy is depicting the same rule.

    [​IMG]

    Amendment to the sheet.

    15 points profit tgt summary figures may be read as follows. Some of the cell in this column have hit target.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
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  7. Purushotham

    Purushotham Well-Known Member

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    Rules.


    5. no trailing stop. Slide the stop to breakeven when trade moves 20 points in favour. Donot close the trade even if the signal flips until either SL or profit target or breakeven hits. Enter next trade only when either SL or profit target is hit. In case of BE trade, the next trade is to be initiated only when the price hits SL or profit target. If the signal flips after hitting SL or profit target, next trade should be as per new trend.

    Please look at the chart 2nd and 3rd trades are differs from the rules or iam missing something.
     
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  8. suri112000

    suri112000 Well-Known Member

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    2nd trade is entered when 1st trade hit SL.
    3rd trade is entered when 2nd trade hit SL.

    There is no confusion. Your fresh entry should be on break off latest red candle high. We donot bother whether that red candle is within that earlier trade or not. If the red candle within earlier trade, we take the next trade, on break off its high. Hope it is clear now.
     
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  9. Purushotham

    Purushotham Well-Known Member

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    Yes, Clear now.
     
  10. suri112000

    suri112000 Well-Known Member

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    In my view, profit target of 15 points is to be considered for this strategy rather than 10 points profit target. In in the hind sight 10 points PT looks attractive. But, if the strike rate falls down from 72% to 52% in any month, 10 points PT turns negative, because of brokerage. 15 points PT dropping from 56% to 46% also does not leave much impact on profitability.

    Some of the loosing trades in 15 points PT should be reduced. This can be achieved by increasing lot size to 2 after 1 loss. If the 2nd trade also results in losses, then increase the lot size to 3 for the 3rd trade. If the 3rd trade also results in losses, then bring back the lot size back to 1 from 4th trade onwards as we cannot anticipate how long the loosing spree can go. This method has inbuilt danger of increasing losses if we keep on increasing lot sizes. But, as seen from past trades it helps to reduce the losses for most of the time. This method has elimited sizable loosing trades and expecting it to be more helpful than harmful. We are taking chances.

    As the name of the thread suggests, it is conservative strategy. We are not looking for bumper profits and at the same time not intended to loose much. Trading this strategy helps the trader to be in the game for longer durations to understand the intricacies of practical aspects of trading.

    We are going to paper trade this strategy for next 30 trading days. Clear cut rules are made out in earlier post and for profit targets and additional lot trades as discussed in this post above, to follow them with discipline.

    I will post the charts and P&L for the next 30 days as the time permits as the volunteers have not come up as expected. If everything goes well for next 30 trading days, we will have a nice trading strategy atleast for intermediate level traders.:)
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
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