Dear Friends!!
I dont know..but it is a case of soft Landing.Whatever happens..there is enormous strength in the fundamentals and revisit of 25k 30k is almost certain.
The depths to which nifty would plunge will depend on
1. Long term impact of the Possible Crash of the financial economy(Which as we witness will not happen)
2. Sudden crunch in liquidity..whihc i feel is quite possible.
[I really dont know what could trigger another major collapse,but several banks and Hedge Funds are still over leveraged on certail potentially hazardous assets.]
Now ,As we see, a lot is interrelated..with greater deep spikes in the crunch levels..the liquidity condition will have to be artifically bolstered which in turn will witness another series of inflationary(hyper inflationary)pressures.
If at all anything that can affact our outlook,it is infaltionary pressure on our economy imposed by the falling dollar.
Unfortulanetly there is ZILCH the Indian Govt Can do about it,apart from putting brakes to our growth engines.
If we are likely to see a scenario where there will be a period of extended uncertainity ..say 2-3 years in the US financial economy...then i can assure you that we will have severe difficulty in fueling our growth engine.
In that Scenario 7499 is not impossible.
However,This is clearly a Black Swan.
The Probability of it happening is extremely small.
My hunch is something like a revisit of a 11k levels...(at the maximum)
However the rebound would be explosive..and would probably the greatest Bull run witnessed in the history of the markets.
Also Im a lil sceptical about the role TA can play in this because TA reads History and predicts the future.
But this is a one off situation.
Will history be able to predict the Future???
Kindly correct my logic in case ive made errors
Regards and best wishes to all traders