Technical analysis on EU,GU and major pairs

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-09


The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2250 and seems to initiate a rebound. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and initiate a more violent bearish trend.

Technical indicators provide buy-signals and evolve in oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2250 with the 1st objective at 1.2310 and then at 1.2330. A break through 1.2230 will alter this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert

EUR/USD Rebound - for July 10, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The euro is consolidating because the markets are waiting for the European decision after the meeting this week. It's a bit farfetched to consider that something constructive will happen and even if it happens, there is a strong possibility that the market will simply fade away anyway. Unfortunately the markets are not as patient. If this situation had occurred 3 years ago, the euro and would have been quoting at 1.15
After we have broken below 1.2415 level, we gained much support. What once was support becomes resistance and this could be what we are expecting. However, we must take into account that the pair dropped almost 400 pips last week and that a rebound is not necessarily excluded.
A rebound towards 1.24 will serve as an opportunity to sell this pair from higher levels. Our medium term objective is 1.2150.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for July 10, 2012


On the mid-term scale the GBP/USD currency pair is moving sideways in a slightly bearish Yellow channel.
Price levels of 1.5460 & 1.5520 correspond to 61.8% & 50% Fibonacci levels based on the previous bullish swing 1.5266 up to 1.5774.
On the Intraday scale the price zone 1.5460 - 1.5520 corresponds to the lower limit of the long-term channel which constitutes a very strong support zone and is likely to push the GBP/USD pair to the upside to 1.5580 then 1.5645 with SL located below 1.5450.
The pair is probably forming a mid-term bearish Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with its right shoulder located around 1.5645 which is rendered a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.5725.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert

EUR/USD 1.2405 Strong Resistance - for July 11, 2012


Italian prime minister announced that Italy may seek another bailout and this news ultimately hurt the Europes outlook.
On the technical level, the euro hit the 1.2250 support level which allows suggesting continuation of the downtrend. A close above 1.2250 would increase the probability of a rebound, to the weekly pivot of 1.2405 in this level. We recommend selling with short term 1.2150.
The Momentum indicator is showing that a rebound is imminent. Range Indicator is showing that the euro is highly oversold.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for July 11, 2012


On the mid-term scale, the GBP/USD currency pair is moving sideways in a slightly bearish channel since it managed to breakdown the long-term uptrend line depicted on the chart.
Price levels of 1.5460 & 1.5520 which correspond to 61.8% & 50% Fibonacci levels based on the previous bullish swing 1.5266 up to 1.5774.
On the Intraday scale the price zone of 1.5460 - 1.5520 corresponds to the lower limit of the long-term channel which constitutes a very strong support zone and is likely to push the GBP/USD pair to the upside to 1.5580 then 1.5645 with SL located below 1.5450.
A short-term Head & Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed yesterday at the key-zone of 1.5460 - 1.5520 which is confirmed now to be targeting at 1.5580 then 1.5630.
The pair is probably forming a mid-term bearish Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with its right shoulder located around 1.5645 which is rendered a valid Sell entry with SL located above 1.5725.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert

EUR/USD Pushing Lower Today - Analysis for July 12, 2012


EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move developing impulsive wave (3) (coloured green) of the bigger 5 wave (coloured orange). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.2296 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and price was pushed down reaching a new 2 years low at 1.2211 level. At the moment we are in the 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green) and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2150 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2742-1.2408-1.2692) with Take Profit at 1.2149 (161.8% of wave 1). Resistance point at 1.2255 can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Member Williams Speaks and EU ECB Monthly Bulletin, Industrial Production m/m, ECB President Draghi Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.2165 (S2) 1.2197 (S1) 1.2217 (PP) 1.2249 (R1) 1.2281 (R2) 1.2301 (R3) 1.2333
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.2200 with Stop Loss at 1.2255 and Take Profit at 1.2149 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-12


The spot rate is currently approaching the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5420 and seems to initiate a rebound. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and initiate a more violent bearish trend.

Technical indicators provide sell-signals supporting the assumption of a decline. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.5420 with the 1st objective at 1.5480 and then at 1.5500. A break through 1.5400 will alter this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert

EUR/USD Very Oversold - for July 13, 2012


The euro is pushed downward, waiting for some important data and maybe for the solution that is credible in the long term. As it is known, the market does not trust the meetings and conventions of European leaders.
In this context, the euro remains its downtrend, the range and Momentum indicators as well while being in oversold area showing an imminent rebound upward, apparently the area is likely to rebound at 1.2145 level daily fractal. We, therefore, recommend paying a lot of attention if you have short positions. If you do not want to buy, we recommend sell after the upward trend bounces around 1.2400.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

GBP/USD Fractal 1.5408 - For July 13, 2012


On daily chart the British pound shows a recovery from the bearish pressure. During previous weeks the pair was in consolidation and the fact that it has broken its downtrend line means that there must be a downward pressure and it is likely that your goal is 1.5245.
Therefore, in this range of 1.54 (Fractal) to 1.5580 (fractal) it is better to be very cautious with our position, we recommend selling below 1.5580 near the level of resistance, or, if the pair closes the negotiations now, below 1.5400. We recommend selling with the targeted for 1.5245 level.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

EUR/USD Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for July 16, 2012


Proceeding from today's H4 chart, the pair takes a downward move and now is trading between the Support level 1.2175 and the Resistance level 1.2225. Currently the pair is testing the Support level of 1.2175 and is trying to break it. Given that the pair continues its bearish move and manages to break the Support level and closes 4H below, it will be a strong indicator for the bearish move which enables the Support level of 1.2140. After that we should wait for breaking this Support level and closing 4H below for more bearish-signals till reaching the Support level 1.2100.

On the other side, if the pair fails to break the Support level 1.2175 and bounces from it, this will give a good opportunity for bullish-signals after closing 4H above the Resistance level 1.2225 with TP 1.2280. Then we should wait for breaking the Resistance level of 1.2295 to continue the bullish-signals. If the pair manages to break this Resistance level and closes 4H above, this will provide a bullish strength providing new sell-signals and enabling the Resistance level of 1.2360 as a level target. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide bearish-signals, but as long as the Support level 1.2175 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected invalidating the bearish outlook. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support Levels

R3(1.2360)
R2(1.2295)
R3(1.2225)

S1(1.2175)
S2(1.2140)
S3(1.2100)

Trading Recommendations
According to previous analysis, we recommend selling only if the pair manages to break the Support level 1.2175 with TP1 1.2150 and TP2 1.2110; SL closing 4 hours above the Support level might be appropriate.

Performed by Hossam Soliman Ali, Analytical expert