Food for Thought........!

I wonder, why we Indians, many times, are proud to be idiots… at least some of us

We have the NSE Index Nifty, which consists of 50 scrips. Each scrip also has it’s Futures and Options, which are related to the scrip and get settled on the monthly settlement day.

But everyday, as the individual scrip runs, we find that the Futures also run parallel. And as a result, we also get the figures for Nifty from these 50 scrips, and we find the Nifty Futures running almost parallel.

That makes sense.

The American Stock Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, better referred to simply as ‘Dow’ or ‘DJ’ exists for years. Dow Futures run all 24 hours all over the world.

What makes me wonder is, how can the futures run, when the US markets are closed…? What is the reference that they follow? Or rather…. Is there any reference or it is pure operator controlled speculation … ?

Search me. I have no answer.

Likewise, we find the Nifty Futures running on the Singapore Exchange. The SGX opens well before the NSE does. Then what is the reference for the Nifty Futures on SGX…?

Like for example, today, on Tuesday 5th Nov 08, the Nifty Futures were running in excess of 100 points over yesterday’s close. It had absolutely no relevance with what happened during the trading session today on NSE.

Then what is the point in running Nifty Futures on SGX…? To mis-guide the Indian traders or to create a mis-understanding and chaos, in general…?

Or is it to prove that we too are idiots to blindly follow what the Americans do. They do it 24 hours, we follow for lesser duration !

In reality though, I feel that banning the Dow Futures to run anywhere but the American Exchanges, shall bring down the volatility to considerable extent. The world markets shall follow. And if I can think of this, then there shall be thousands like me, who think likewise. But who cares…?

Mera Bharat Mahan!
Cheers!
SS

SS,

what settings do u use for keltner bands for Nifty?

regards,
vin

Sorry Vin.

Tried to check the charts, but somehow the interest is lost. All those who have personally visited Taj and Oberoi and have had a lunch &/or dinner would really understand what happend when the firing was opened.

Visiting any 5 star hotel's restaurants has made it more risky now.

To answer your question, usually the BBs and KBs are for 15 days, and I follow the same along with EMA line for 9 or 10 days.

For most of the world indices, the BBs have shrunk well inside the KBs and are running parralel. The 10 days EMA line has been crossed by most of the daily EOD candles for Friday last.

And with the terrifying week that we had, everyone would be anticipating a down trend for the forth coming week. Ironically, the market defies. Lets see.
SS

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
This posting is dediated to the analysts and to be analysts …. those who take pride in using their available brain power

Such as : Manpreet Alex Shishir Rajat Praveen Kamlesh Deven Satyam

No. I cannot dare to include Senior members. If I have wrongly included a senior, please pardon me.


While everyone gets awed by the Elliot Waves, reliable basic information about EW is not available all the time.

The Eliot wave international had been declaring ‘Free Week’ from time to time, and they have been giving 3 audio visual clips to watch, each of about 15 to 20 minutes, to explain -

WHY the Elliot Wave analysis is needed
WHAT is the Elliot Wave Analysis
HOW to use Elliot Wave principles

The first one is interesting clip and clarifies the view point. The second needs to be run again and again, till everything gets fixed in one’s head and then the third one to be run, studied and understood.

Because this has been made available Free by EWI from time to time I have made a zip file and I have uploaded it to

http://w w w .w. 4sh***.com/file/74387898/5549cc6a/Why_What_How.html

You may need a shockwave file player to run these clips, and they are available for free downloads on many websites.

Hope this is good food for thoughts to all those whose names are mentioned, and all those, whose names I might have missed. Sorry.
Cheers!
SS

Hi!

Just see the daily EOD Nifty chart as at the close on 5th Dec 08. So Cute!

The Indigo coloured Bollinger Bands have narrowed to such a thin channel…… this itself is evident of the reduction in volatility. One need NOT see the VIX Chart.

As a result, the last candle is around the 10 days EMA Red line….. but that’s the catch.





It is also evident, that in the near future, the BBs shall once again start widening and go beyond the Gold coloured KBs, because the Nifty value shall have a break out…. Which side..? Depends on various factors.

First, the US markets were in the Green on Friday, and virtually wiped out all the loss of Thursday. So, the Asian markets are likely to follow the same on Monday 8th Dec.

Second,….. with almost all the Asian markets in the Green, the Nifty and Indian markets had a sizable fall, after a good start. Has that something to do with ‘Inside Information’ about the declaration to be made today?

First declaration by RBI, where a sizable cut in Rapo rate and reverse Rapo rate is expected, along with some guide lines for the banks to reduce the PLR.

Second declaration, possibly by the PM [acting as FM] about the packages that shall be made available to some section of the industry.

While the first shall result in the reduction of interest rates of all types by the banks, taking loan shall be easier and suitable to one’s pocket… that is the anticipation…. By individuals and by industry too.

The second needs money, and one may be left wondering, where this money shall be made available from…?

Answer is simple. Although the Crude prices have dropped from above US $100 per barrel to about US $ 40 per barrel, there has been no reduction of Petrol-Diesel prices, which has resulted in the prices of all commodities remaining high due to higher transportation costs.

The government earns higher excise duty, vat and other taxes and levies, that must already have generated a higher surplus.

So, without increasing any taxation, PM could walk away with a credit of having helped the industry at the time help was needed.

Thanks to Left parties. They are NUTs. When Crude prices were going up, and UPA govt wanted to raise the petrol-diesel rates, they had fought tooth and nail. With the same logic, they should have been fighting for the reduction of these rates, since the time Crude started cooling down.

But who cares…? All they want is to mis-guide some sections of the society to get their votes, and remain in power…… Mera Bharat Mahan !

However….. with the impact of the declarations today is expected to be positive, fall in the Indian stock markets on Friday does NOT get justified…. Unless there is something we do NOT know, and some insiders do. Or may be it was a purposeful attempt to take the makets down, so we shall have a gap-up opening on Monday 8th Dec.

Surprisingly, someone at CNBC-TV18 was advising viewers to close their longs and remain short. And such persons are called expert advisors….. but then he may know something that I do NOT know.

My opinions, and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS

Dear S S,

Hello - once again. Got this link from the T I forum.

Nice to get your views and reads - was Really missing the daily (almost) dose of FOOD!!

Catch more of ya now - regularly.

Regards the compress of bollingers, how about a Nifty straddle - what are your views of this strategy, say Nifty is at 2700-ish, so 2900CE and 2500PE or maybe 2600PE and 2800CE?

There is quite some time for expiry so the move would negate the time decay - what say?

Murtaza

Hi!

Newton tried his luck in the stock market and failed miserably. Later he said -

"I can predict the movements of the heavenly bodies [planets] but NOT the stock markets"

Although the situation has changed a lot thereafter, none of us could be of the level anywhere near him. We only can try to speculate scientifically, using the charts, fibo, and various other info available to us [that was probably NOT available to Newton]

I understand that out of the top 6 OI for options, the maximum traded options on Friday 5th Dec were 2800 CE and 2600 PE. This, I interprete as Resistance and Support respecively.

However, it does NOT mean that there is no other support or resistane between 2600 & 2800. During the trading session on Monday 8th Dec, the situation could ge altered all together.

With the two announcements likely today evening, there may be an inflow of too many "After Hours" orders... a facility that many brokers are offering now-a-days.

Taking the guidelines from Saint's method, when the trend changes, at an appropriate level one could make the entry on Monday, based on the outcome of today's announcements.

Personaly, I am expecting an upward move... but I could be wrong

Cheers!

Edited for NB : Forgot to mention that US $ has been at around Rs 50 for a too long period, and should make a move towards it's target of Rs 44-45. That would be the indication of inflow of Foreign exchange in the country, which shall help the markets to recover to higher levels, from it's current 2600-2800 band.

Yes, the $ - I had a post from a blog (almost 2-3 months back) where some comparisons were made, the 'crashes' or the 'blips' were always when the dollars were at their highs and the upmoves were always when the greenback were nearing lows -

the logic being - Even if there was no change in the prices of the stocks, bringing in the dollars at lows and taking back at highs - in itself is a profitable trade i.e. buy at 39-40 and sell at 47-50 (current scenario) - these buggers in the FII are smart and shrewd and they are here to make a Kill - not to invest into our industries.

post available at nooreshtech dot blogspot dot com

Actually its the other way round. When FII's came in, they sold Dollars for Rupees @ 39 - 40. Now they are Buying back the Dollars by paying 47 - 50. Its a sort of double whammy since they first (proable) loose in stocks and then loose due to currency having moved against them.

Cheers

Prashanth

And after having withdrawn the dollars from Indian and the other World markets, they get cornered as the commodities, gold, Crude..... everything on the decline.... except the US $.

No wonder UD Finance companies have major problems. They went on advising the rest of the world and did NOT know what is burning... you know where