When & how to invest rs 1 crore in stock market to gain 20 lacs in three months


Well-Known Member
:) need more such comments , about these tip givers.
Attitude can be changed - & like our state of mind, is just a matter of how v think about things..... A change in attitude, without any apparent change in skills or behavior, can result in quantum improvements in performance.":)

Dear Friend,
I retired from Forces a year back and worked out 12 months 18 hours learning this FOREX as a curiosity.Left Bank jobs reserved fro Ex-serviceman.
Now I started my own live trade after loosing 900$ now perfect with the tips and analysis.Training other bank officers,retired men,stock brokers about FOREX trade as it is better than any other market.Now my account started with 100$ again with a a target of 100% monthly.

MFs see outflow of Rs 1.44 lakh cr in Sept

After witnessing heavy inflows in July and August, mutual funds lost favour last month as investors pulled out over Rs 1.44 lakh crore, the highest monthly outflow so far this fiscal.

The combined net outflow from the 36 fund houses stood at Rs 1,44,327 crore in September, as per the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) data.

"The outflow was expected as banks pull out hefty amounts from income schemes at the end of every quarter to meet their liquidity requirements. However, there would be reversal at the end of October," Taurus Mutual Fund Managing Director RK Gupta said.

Total fund inflows in July and August stood at Rs 1,56,352 crore.

So far this financial year, the mutual fund industry witnessed a net inflow of over Rs 3.40 lakh crore, while there have been outflows in two months -- June and September -- totalling over Rs 2.28 lakh crore, the data showed.

Investors had pulled out Rs 83,937 crore in June, while at the end of September investors pulled out Rs 1,44,327 crore, the biggest outflow in a month so far this fiscal.

At the end of September, investors pulled out money from the four major fund schemes -- income, equity, balance and liquid or money market.
What happens if the dollar crashes?



The financial crisis taught us that markets can drop further and faster than anyone expects. Housing prices, for example, fell for three straight years starting in 2006, even though the conventional wisdom right up until the bust began was that prices would not fall even a little bit.

Let's apply some of our hard-won knowledge to the dollar, which is also supposed to be resistant to a bust. After weakening gradually since 2002, the greenback rose during the financial crisis last year. It has fallen roughly 15% since March as investors moved to higher-yielding currencies. The conventional wisdom is that at these levels the dollar is cheap and, if anything, due for a rebound. "Currencies don't go much more than 20% from their long-term averages in real [inflation-adjusted] terms. We're there already," says Michael Dooley, an economist who is co-founder and research chief of Cabezon Capital Management, a San Francisco investment firm.

But it's worth at least thinking about the possibility of a dollar bust. The reason the housing bust had such devastating consequences was a failure of imagination: Lenders, regulators, credit raters, and others simply couldn't believe that house prices would ever fall the way they did, so they were blindsided.

Bank Blowups Possible

Let's imagine the dollar quickly dropped by a further 25% against each major world currency, roughly parallel to housing's unprecedented 30% decline. That would mean it would take $2 to buy a single euro. On the good side, U.S. manufacturers would find it easier to compete globally, and foreign tourism would boom in the U.S. On the bad side, inflation in the U.S. would zoom because of the rising cost of imported products. Americans would have even more trouble getting a loan as foreign buyers pull out of the debt market.

abroad cheap dollar would make it harder for other nations to export to the U.S., hurting their growth. China could face social unrest. Trade wars could break out. And there could be blowups at overexposed banks whose risk managers were sure no such dollar bust could happen. As investor Warren Buffett once said: "You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."

Federal regulators are monitoring banks for a wide variety of risks, including the threat of a dollar bust: "We're not looking quarter to quarter, we're looking hour to hour and minute to minute at what those risks are," says one regulator who requested anonymity.

From its spring peak, the dollar is down 11% against the Japanese yen, 16% against the euro, 21% against the Canadian dollar, and about 30% against the Brazilian and Australian currencies, which are benefiting from a commodity price spike. Against a broad market basket of all U.S. trading partners, and adjusted for inflation, the dollar has fallen 15% from its spring high.

Deficits Depress Dollar

Behind the dollar's weakness are near-zero short-term U.S. interest rates. As they once did with yen, investors are borrowing dollars cheaply, then selling them to buy currencies of countries whose stocks and bonds promise better returns. The Federal Reserve is keeping the federal funds rate at a rock-bottom zero to 0.25% to stimulate the U.S. economy and heal the banks, but a side result is the dollar has turned into the preferred fuel for an international speculative play that is weighing down the greenback.

Another force driving down the dollar: continued U.S. trade deficits, which the U.S. is paying for by borrowing from the rest of the world. Some economists and traders believe that eventually the U.S. will be forced to devalue its own currency to make its global debt more affordable. While the trade gap has narrowed to less than 3% of gross domestic product in the second quarter from 6% at its peak in 2006, it is still high by historical standards.

Now, some of the foreign central banks that have propped up the dollar seem to be getting cold feet. Instead of buying just dollars for their foreign-exchange reserves, they're diversifying into other currencies. The countries that reveal the composition of their reserve holdings put 63% of their new reserves into euros and yen in the second quarter, according to an analysis by Barclays Capital (BCS). Says Steven Englander, Barclays' chief U.S. currency strategist: "Their incentive is to try to do stealth diversification, not 'get me out of here at any price.' " (China, with more than $2 trillion worth of reserves, doesn't reveal what currencies in which it holds the funds.)

Obama Administration officials don't seem perturbed by the dollar's slide so far. A weaker dollar helps shrink the trade deficit by making American-made goods more competitive in world markets. Drew Greenblatt, owner of Marlin Steel Wire Products in Baltimore, which makes high-tech baskets for assembly lines, says he's winning orders from countries that are better known as exporters. Exults Greenblatt: "We are shipping ice to Eskimos."

This state of calm would vanish overnight, though, if the financial markets got a sense that the dollar's decline was starting to snowball out of control. At that point, the invisible "force field" protecting the dollar would fade away, says Martin D. Weiss, chairman of Weiss Group, a financial data and analysis firm in Jupiter, Fla. Says Weiss: "We would become more like ordinary mortals and more vulnerable to attacks on our currency."

The bearish case for the dollar is that the decline takes on a life of its own. Selling begets more selling. The world's central bankers and finance ministers intervene to prop up the currency, but speculators, having tasted victory, aren't scared off. Princeton University economist Paul R. Krugman once called this the Wile E. Coyote scenario, after the character in the Road Runner cartoons who runs off a cliff but doesn't start to fall until he looks down and sees there's nothing beneath his feet.

Speculation that the dollar is headed for a tumble can become self-fulfilling if traders rush for the exit. Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign exchange strategist at CMC Markets, a London currency and commodity brokerage, says "right now there is around a 30% to 40% chance we are going to see the dollar falling toward a crisis point."

Dollar bulls like to point out that the currency rallied strongly last year during the worst of the financial crisis. But Laidi says that was no show of support for the dollar or the U.S. economy. Rather, he says, investors retreated from all types of risk and put their money into the most liquid, short-term instruments they could findwhich just happened to be U.S. Treasury bills, which are held in accounts all over the world. Agrees Barclays' Englander: "It wasn't a long-term bet that the U.S. economy would be the most dynamic in the world."

Inflation Could Emerge Quickly

Currency traders don't put much stock in the statements of support for a strong dollar by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and other Administration officials. They note that Treasury chiefs dating back to the Clinton Administration have said they support a strong dollar, yet the U.S. has not supported its currency through purchases since 1995.

If the dollar did tumble, import prices might rise faster than most economists now expect. New research by Columbia University economists Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson shows that the "pass-through" from a cheap currency to high import prices was underestimated because of poor data. In other words, inflation could emerge more quickly than is commonly believed. It would be disastrous for the economy if the Federal Reserve had to jack up interest rates to cool inflation or defend the currency while growth remained weak. A lower dollar makes Americans poorer by cutting the purchasing power of their currency. And there's no guarantee it would bolster U.S. industry, says David Malpass, president of New York research firm Encima Global. Malpass says the fall of the dollar in the late 1980s hurt rather than helped Detroit by giving Japan the buying power to strengthen its automakers. Says Mallpass: "We can make ourselves poor enough that we can't import very much and we'll have balanced trade. But how would that be good for the U.S.?"

In the short run, the biggest risk would be the failure of some firm that made a highly leveraged bet that was vulnerable to a falling dollar. A dollar plunge would affect not only currency trades but also interest-rate derivatives and credit default swaps. Five big banks accounted for 88% of the credit-risk exposure from derivatives in the entire U.S. banking system in the second quarter.

No one knows whether the dollar is headed for disaster. But assuming the best is perilous.

With Theo Francis in Washington. Coy is BusinessWeek's Economics editor.
LIC to invest Rs 1 lakh crore in stock market in 2009-10



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crore in the equity market in the current fiscal, up from Rs 35,000 crore during 2008-09.

"We have already invested Rs 40,000 crore in the stock market in the first four months of the current fiscal and by March 2010 the company would invest Rs 1 lakh crore in the stock market," LIC Zonal Manager (North) Vinay Kumar Sinha told reporters here.

LIC had invested about Rs 35,000 crore in equity market during 2008-09, he said.

Such a large investment by the country's biggest domestic financial institution will boost the sentiments at bourses, which witnessed volatility, especially after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in America last year.

Having crossed the 21,000 points mark in January 2008, the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark index (Sensex) nosedived to around 8,000 points last year itself.
You will be entitled to a 1:1 bonus plus Rs 13 dividend and the price in 5 years will again hit Rs 2000 to Rs 2500.
I'm new to the stock market, can you please explain what a 1:1 bonus is ?

Also,If im clear about what you are saying, Rs.13 is the dividend the share holder will get per share ?

So, if i happen to hold 100 shares of RIL, then will i get Rs.1300 per month ?


Well-Known Member

If I am not wrong, people in the late 80's and early 90's said that Reliance is forming a BUBBLE and will BURST!!!! Investors in Reliance will have a hard time to even cry. REMEMBER, many of the investors in Reliance have built or bought a house and/or got their daughter or son married. 'YES' it did BURST and create 4 more companies (reaping wealth for the loyal stock holders), those who did not have Reliance in their portfolio or those who sold them off before the burst suffered! And 'YES' I would agree that it is again forming a BUBBLE and this time WILL grow GIGANTIC!!!! Remember OIL + GAS = ENERGY, and this time RELIANCE will grow with ENERGY. Look at energy stock prices in the international market like EXXON, TEXACO, BP, VALERO, CITGO, CHEVERON.

This is the right time to invest in RELIANCE INDUSTRIES, because you will still be entitled to dividends.

I would suggest that if people look at past long time charts for last 100 years: Stocks have returned max returns year to year, followed by real estate, followed by FD and last GOLD, which does not always glitter!

Since the target was 3 months, I am back with my recommendations and its performance

14 Oct 2009

Reliance Closed @ 2184 or 1092 after 1:1 Bonus
GoldBees Closed @ 1582

19 Feb 2010

Reliance Closed @ 980 (-10%, capital 90,00,000)
GoldBees Closed @ 1638 (3%, capital 1,03,00,000)

All time high within these 3 months

Reliance 1149 (5% gains)
GoldBees 1825 (15% gains)

I agree that over a long period of time Equities will outperform but at what levels one should enter is the question? Should he created even a diversified folio back in October he would be left with 10-15% in loss by now. Hope he did not..