What's Wrong With Elliott Wave & Forecasting ?
- Thread starter ace
- Start date
C
cv I didnt see you attached chart. It is holy grail but do not give it to me
I am likely to lose money!!!
I am likely to lose money!!!
Take a basic MA crossover system (i am not for a moment contending that it's superior to any other, but just using it as an example). When it's a crossover, it's a crossover there aren't any two ways about it (on the charts what you see is what i see). Two or more traders trading the same stock during the same period based on the signals generated (without any additional discretionary inputs) will get the same results (whether good or bad). The same applies to backtesting. If independent testing is done for the same stocks over the same period using the same parameters the results would tally.
Now the question is, can the same be said about EW? Seemingly not. Moreover from what i learnt from one of CVs posts here (& the matter is as yet uncontested) that an EW method can throw up a large set of probabilities with each carrying equal weightage (that is there is no high probability or low probability scenario) To a neutral observer like myself this raises the question in my mind that what am i to do with such a method which leaves me in a 'coin toss' situation all the time?
Regards,
Kalyan.
Now the question is, can the same be said about EW? Seemingly not. Moreover from what i learnt from one of CVs posts here (& the matter is as yet uncontested) that an EW method can throw up a large set of probabilities with each carrying equal weightage (that is there is no high probability or low probability scenario) To a neutral observer like myself this raises the question in my mind that what am i to do with such a method which leaves me in a 'coin toss' situation all the time?
Regards,
Kalyan.
kalyan,
Nope.a good trader will stick to his dicipline and win with his ma crossover a bad trader will become impatient wilth the gyrations of this system and lose despite the same system. What is the relevance of backtesting? In his book "entries and exits" Alexander Elder writes the only backtesting which he do is at the hard right edge and clicking every bar forward and noting down the buy and sell signals and testing them in future to gauze the testing becomes profitable or not. if it gives good results the method suceeds if not he drops it. This is how a system is tested. looking forward and not backward.
past patterns look so easy and you are lured into false comfirt they provide.
yes, elliott gives you discrition and it makes you a discretionary trader not a system mechanical trader. In the same book elder writes that a discritionary trader is better than a mechanical trader. Elliott is not a mechanical system so far so no software can analyse ew better than human mind. such mechanical system do not exit . Even adgets inventor admits that this is true.
If you want to search numerical tests for ew that's your choice but for me my
discrition has paid me with satisfactory results howsoever meager they may be. I do use indicators with elliott as other elliotticians do as an ancillary measure . But there are people who use only elliott on all time frames.
There are probabilities and multiple possibilities which some time confuse but their are methods to counter them. you can stay aside, you can switch to higher time frame you can use indicators etc. In the end a trader should follow the method with which he or she is comfirtable not what people want to impose on you.
regards,
spiderman
Nope.a good trader will stick to his dicipline and win with his ma crossover a bad trader will become impatient wilth the gyrations of this system and lose despite the same system. What is the relevance of backtesting? In his book "entries and exits" Alexander Elder writes the only backtesting which he do is at the hard right edge and clicking every bar forward and noting down the buy and sell signals and testing them in future to gauze the testing becomes profitable or not. if it gives good results the method suceeds if not he drops it. This is how a system is tested. looking forward and not backward.
past patterns look so easy and you are lured into false comfirt they provide.
yes, elliott gives you discrition and it makes you a discretionary trader not a system mechanical trader. In the same book elder writes that a discritionary trader is better than a mechanical trader. Elliott is not a mechanical system so far so no software can analyse ew better than human mind. such mechanical system do not exit . Even adgets inventor admits that this is true.
If you want to search numerical tests for ew that's your choice but for me my
discrition has paid me with satisfactory results howsoever meager they may be. I do use indicators with elliott as other elliotticians do as an ancillary measure . But there are people who use only elliott on all time frames.
There are probabilities and multiple possibilities which some time confuse but their are methods to counter them. you can stay aside, you can switch to higher time frame you can use indicators etc. In the end a trader should follow the method with which he or she is comfirtable not what people want to impose on you.
regards,
spiderman
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